Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
239 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure was over the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
this afternoon with a front extending from the low into the
Carolinas. This low will track slowly east tonight and Saturday
bringing several periods of showers and thunderstorms through
Sunday. As the low moves offshore, high pressure builds in with
drier and warmer weather for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Severe thunderstorms remain a threat this afternoon into tonight.

Tornado Watch 186 in effect until 8 pm.
Tornado Watch 187 in effect until 10 pm.

Several rounds of convection expected this afternoon into tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of
the cold front as it moves east tonight into Saturday. Strong to
severe are possible this afternoon into tonight. Locally enhanced
low level shear along the warm front will elevate the threat of a
tornado this afternoon. Overall helicity of 200/300 m2/s2 and
Convective Available Potential Energy in the 1000-2000 J/Kg range
support the severe threat. Pockets of low clouds and fog will
develop overnight especially where it rains. Low temperatures will
be in the upper 40s in the mountains to the mid 50s in the piedmont.
A closed upper level low will slowly directly overhead Saturday.
This low should steepen the lapse rates aloft and continue to bring
showers through Saturday with maybe a few thunderstorms in the
afternoon. High temperatures Saturday will climb into the lower 50s
in the mountains to the lower 70s in the piedmont.

Moderate confidence in the Near Term Forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Dry conditions return for the start of the week...

A closed upper level low will be just north of the area and then
track eastward, heading off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula by
Sunday morning. Upper level ridging starts building into the area,
extending from the Gulf of Mexico up near the Great Lakes. These two
features establish decent north/northeasterly flow at 500mb.

At the surface, the low pressure center slowly moves off to the
North Carolina coast by Saturday night, and with it, decreasing our
chances of showers and storms by the nighttime hours. Surface high
pressure will sit to the north of the surface low in Eastern Canada,
setting up a blocking pattern for the beginning of the week. Winds
on the order of 10 to 20 mph from the north/northeast will dominate
Sunday into Monday as we sit between these two features.

Temperatures are a bit cooler for this period, thanks to the
northerly flow, but we do stay dry through this period once the low
pressure system moves offshore by Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Another round of shower and storm chances later in the week...

The influence of the surface high pressure sitting to our north will
keep us dry for the middle of the week. However, the surface low
pressure that will have crossed the area on Saturday will continue
to spin off the coast of the Southeastern US. By the end of the
week, this will drift back westward, getting closer to the coast. As
it approaches for the second half to end of the week, it will
increase the possibility of another round of associated showers and
storms. However, models differ in when the low will get close enough
to the coast to bring the precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Friday...

Low pressure was over the Mid Mississippi Valley with a front
extending from the low into the Carolinas will track east this
afternoon into Saturday. Winds will be out of the east to
southeast on the north side of this boundary. As the front lifts
north through the region the wind will turn to the southwest.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the
front. The most likely of timing of thunderstorms based on many
Hi- Res convective allowing models is from 19Z/3PM through
03Z/11PM. Strong gusty wind and large hail are possible this
afternoon and evening, especially in central and eastern
Virginia and North Carolina.

Average confidence on ceiling, visibility and wind.
Below average confidence on timing of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening at any specific airport.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A deep upper low will bring several rounds of showers with
associated MVFR conditions for the Saturday and Sunday.Late
night and early morning IFR/LIFR fog will be possible,
especially where it rains. Clouds will remain Monday and Tuesday
with sub-VFR ceilings still likely but dry weather is expected.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AMS/KK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
248 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

VAZ020-WVZ507-508-071900-
Bath-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
248 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk for strong to severe storms through this
evening with wind and hail as the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016-071900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-
Wythe-Grayson-Carroll-
248 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 186 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Reports should be
submitted by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ004>006-VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-071900-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
248 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 187 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Reports should be
submitted by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
402 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     QUINWOOD                38.06N 80.70W
05/06/2022                   GREENBRIER         WV   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE
            QUINWOOD AREA.

&&

RAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ004-005-062045-
Stokes NC-Rockingham NC-
412 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Stokes
and Rockingham Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellisboro, or 7 miles south of Madison, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eden...
Reidsville...
Wentworth...
Mayodan...
Madison...
Stoneville...
and Pine Hall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for northwestern
North Carolina. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1000 PM
EDT for north central North Carolina...and south central,
southwestern and west central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8007 3633 8013 3652 7983 3636 7956
      3625 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 243DEG 36KT 3628 8000

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
420 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ005-006-062045-
Rockingham NC-Caswell NC-
420 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Rockingham and western Caswell Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 420 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monroeton, or 8 miles south of Reidsville, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Reidsville...
Yanceyville...
Bethel...
Jericho...
Camp Springs...
Quick...
and Ruffin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for north central
North Carolina...and south central and west central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7980 3653 7948 3629 7922 3625 7936
      3625 7953 3624 7953 3624 7963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 235DEG 30KT 3621 7967

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
444 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ005-062115-
Rockingham NC-
444 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
eastern Rockingham County through 515 PM EDT...

At 443 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Harrisons Crossroads, or over Wentworth, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eden...
Reidsville...
Wentworth...
Oregon Hill...
Harrisons Crossroads...
Ruffin...
and Draper.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for north central
North Carolina...and south central, southwestern and west central
Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 7985 3641 7986 3654 7970 3654 7967
      3649 7954 3645 7952 3638 7952
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 237DEG 32KT 3642 7972

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

BMG/AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
541 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE JERICHO            36.27N 79.35W
05/06/2022                   CASWELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 62S IN ANDERSON, NC.

&&

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
547 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

VAZ007-010-WVZ042-062215-
Tazewell VA-Bland VA-Mercer WV-
547 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Tazewell, north central Bland and southern Mercer Counties through
615 PM EDT...

At 546 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ceres, or near Bluefield, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bluefield...
Princeton...
Athens...
Rocky Gap...
Pocahontas...
Bramwell...
and Oakvale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for southwestern
Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT
for southwestern Virginia...and southeastern West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3715 8137 3726 8137 3736 8131 3748 8100
      3731 8096 3721 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 237DEG 30KT 3730 8116

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BMG