Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south through our area this afternoon and
into tonight with rain and thunderstorms associated with it.
Behind the front, high pressure will build across the area
providing cooler and less humid weather for the weekend. Warmer
temperatures along with higher humidity levels will return once
again early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

A cold front is currently positioned from southern Indiana into
northern West Virginia. South of this front, a long-lived MCS
continues to move east-southeast across Kentucky and southern
West Virginia. Ahead of this MCS, the environment has become
increasingly supportive of continued convection along the
leading edge of the MCS with MLCAPE already in excess of 2000
J/kg along with an increasing potential of convection to grow
upscale as a more organized cold pool takes place. The biggest
concern will be strong damaging winds as DCAPE values continue
to increase with time.

Hi-res model guidance is in rather good agreement of this
convection exiting into eastern Virginia by around 00z/8pm this
evening with perhaps only some lingering showery activity for
the mountains overnight.

Saturday is expected to be quite an airmass change with much
lower dew points and temperatures. Winds will be gusty at times
from the west-northwest. No rain chances and mostly sunny skies
can be expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Friday...

     Much Cooler and Less Humid for this Weekend with no
Precipitation..

Canadian high pressure will build into the region for the
weekend. With a relatively tight pressure gradient for this time
of year, a gusty northwest wind is expected on Saturday into
Saturday evening. While not overly strong, but noteworthy for
this time of year, gusts of 15 to 25 mph are expected across the
area, with the strongest gusts at the highest elevations. Winds
will decrease Sunday into Monday.

850mb temperatures will plummet from our current readings in the
+20C+ range down into the single digits for a couple of days.
This will represent a sharp contrast from the heat and humidity
of the past few days. Surface dewpoints will drop into the 30s
and 40s for a couple of days with high temperatures only
reaching the 70s most areas, except 60s western higher
elevations and potentially around 80 Piedmont. It is not
entirely out of the realm of possibilities for Burkes Garden to
dip into the mid or upper 30s by Sunday morning. Bottom line is
that temperatures Saturday and Sunday will average about 20
degrees or so less than what we have seen most of this past
week. Temperatures will moderate a bit closer to normal on
Monday. Enjoy, because the heat and humidity will be returning
later next week.

No precipitation is expected through the weekend or even into
Monday. A nice change from this past week of heat, humidity,
and daily thunderstorms!

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- High Confidence in Temperatures,
- High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Speed and Direction.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Friday...

     Heat and Humidity Return to the Area Along With Increased
Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Once Again...

The strong subtropical ridge that was centered over the OH/TN
valley this past week will retrograde into Texas for the
weekend, then build back northeast into the TN/OH Valley by the
mid part of next week. A blob of hot air is progged to lift
northward over the Midwest and then pivot east-southeast into
our region by the mid part of next week. 850mb temperatures
could potentially top +20C for a few days during the later half
of next week. However, at this point, conditions do not appear
to be as warm and humid as what we have been experiencing.

The upper ridge will also not be oriented nearly as well for
MCSs to track south/southeast into our area, at least not for
the first part of the week. Thus, the bulk of showers and
thunderstorms will remain north of the region on the edge of
the ridge axis. While a stray shower or storm could develop
Monday or Tuesday, the probabilities and confidence levels are
too low at this point to even offer isolated coverage.

Once we get into Wednesday, and more so on Thursday, we could start
to see upstream convection start to break down the strength of the
ridge to our northwest. This could increase the potential for some
of that upstream convection to progress into our region with
afternoon and evening isolated showers and storms. MCS potential
increases a bit toward the later part of the week.

Temperatures are expected to increase during this portion of the
forecast with readings reaching the 90s Piedmont and 80s western
mountains. Heat indices on Wednesday may flirt again with the
century mark across eastern areas.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Friday...

Conditions this afternoon still remain VFR areawide, but this
expected to change as the afternoon progresses. A strong
line/cluster of storms currently over eastern Kentucky will
continue to move east as afternoon progresses. Expecting the
window of potential storms will be from 3pm in the far west to
around 8pm in the east. Storms will have the potential to
produce very strong, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall.
Vsby reductions and erratic gusty winds can be expected with any
thunderstorm this afternoon/evening.

Conditions will likely improve to VFR tonight as the front and
associated storms move south and east of the area with only a
few lingering MVFR showers and clouds for the western
mountains.

Widespread VFR conditions can be expected tomorrow with gusty
northwest winds ranging 15-25kts throughout the day.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Mostly VFR conditions are in store for the remainder of the
weekend into early next week with high pressure building into
the region from the north. Isolated to scattered MVFR showers
and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 1245 PM EDT Friday...

KFCX will be down until further notice due to a power supply
failure. Current estimated earliest repair time is Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG
EQUIPMENT...RAB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
226 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-181830-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
226 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. Storms will be strong
to severe, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation is possible this afternoon to provide
reports on severe thunderstorms. Reports should be submitted via
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, through our social media platforms,
by email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov, or online through our "submit a
storm report" located at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-181830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
226 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation is possible Today to provide reports on
severe thunderstorms. Reports should be submitted via phone by
calling 1-866-215-4324, through our social media platforms, by email
at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov, or online through our "submit a storm
report" located at www.weather.gov/rnk.

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