Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
817 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south into the area Friday with very
warm and humid conditions ahead of the front, then cooler and
less humid for the weekend. Meanwhile, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected again in advance of the cold front
tonight and Friday. High pressure and warmer temperatures along
with higher humidity levels will return once again early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 605 PM EDT Thursday...

    Part of Severe Thunderstorm Watch cancelled...

The thunderstorms that crossed the foothills and piedmont of
Virginia and North Carolina dropped temperatures into the 70s
and 80s. There will be some recover but not the the levels
before the storm and not up to values that would result in
dangerous heat index values.

The threat of severe thunderstorms has diminished, but will be
watching the tail end of the line crossing through central
Virginia.

Previous discussion...

For the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening,
watching pop up pulse-like showers and thunderstorms developing
largely along and just west of the Blue Ridge. Synoptically, we
remain under the northwestern periphery of a strong subtropical
ridge and 500dm heights on the order of 594dm. However, this
ridge is progged to begin receding back to the west allowing
temperatures and heights aloft to drop some. Humidity levels
remain incredibly high for the warm upper 80 to lower 90
temperatures across the region prompting yet another heat
advisory for parts of the Piedmont and NC Foothills.

Synoptic forcing is weak, but the morning sounding showed much
better instability with CAPES near 4000 J/KG and DCAPES near
1000 J/KG this afternoon. Abundant moisture remains in the
atmosphere with PWATS > 1.5 across much of the area with
dewpoints largely in the 70-75 degree range. With temps aloft
beginning to cool a bit, expect somewhat better coverage of
convection today than what we saw yesterday. What is lacking
today, however, is any large scale MCS or MCV to result in
organized convection. Instead, look primarily for scattered
convection mainly along to east and south of the Blue Ridge
through the evening, dissipating after sunset. Whether or not an
MCS will develop across north central to northwest NC as the
NAMNest simulated radar depicts, seems somewhat unlikely but is
not entirely out of the realm of possibilities. At any rate,
have kept pops in the chance category for this evening and early
tonight in accordance with the lack of any large scale synoptic
forcing and poor dynamics. It should also be noted that SPC has
upgraded the "marginal" risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon to a "slight" with damaging wind gusts the main
concern.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms with the frontal system
Friday afternoon/evening is somewhat nebulous. None of the HIRES
CAM allowing models nor the synoptic models are overly excited
about widespread robust convective development along the front
Friday. This may be in part due to it moving into an area of
greater subsidence left behind the receding subtropical ridge.
However, given the thermodynamics expected to be in place again
Friday with high temperatures well into the 80s and lower 90s,
dewpoints high 60s to mid 70s, and the forcing along an
advancing frontal system, would expect at least scattered
thunderstorms along the front, especially during the afternoon
and evening. Frontal timing does line up fairly favorably with
thermodynamics. Models show best coverage of convection across
WV into central VA and then southward, but a line of
thunderstorms tracking southward down from northern
VA/MD/northern WV is also possible. Again, at this point chance
to high chance pops were warranted. Nearly the entire forecast
area remains in a "marginal" risk for severe thunderstorms
Friday.

Lows tonight will be quite muggy and around 70 in most areas,
with high temperatures tomorrow a bit cooler, especially in the
west with highs in the 70s to mid 80s west to the lower 90s
east. Humidity levels will in general remain quite high until
late Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Cooler and less humid for this weekend.

In the wake of the cold frontal passage Friday afternoon and
evening, cooler and drier high pressure will build into the region
for the weekend. Some lingering isolated showers and storms are
possible Friday evening, but by midnight mostly clear to clear skies
are expected to prevail across the entire region.

With a relatively tight pressure gradient for this time of year, a
gusty wind wind is expected on Saturday into Saturday evening. While
not overly strong, but noteworthy for this time of year, gusts of 15
to 25 mph are expected across the area, with the strongest gusts at
the highest elevations.

For Saturday and Sunday, expect mostly clear to clear skies with
temperatures around normal on Saturday, and about, get ready for
this, five degrees below normal on Sunday.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

Heat and humidity return to the area with limited chances of
precipitation until perhaps Wednesday or Thursday.

The upper ridge centered n-s over the mid-Mississippi Valley, will
begin to pivot more sw-ne into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and
strength. This will have the impact of increasing geopotential
heights across our region with warm air advection of warmer air from
the center of the ridge into our region. The result will be a return
of hotter and more humid weather into our area. The bulk of showers
and storms will remain north of the region on the edge of the ridge
axis. While a stray shower or storm could develop Monday or Tuesday,
the probabilities and confidence levels are too low at this point to
even offer isolated coverage.

Once we get into Wednesday, and more so on Thursday, we could start
to see upstream convection start to break down the strength of the
ridge to our northwest. This could increase the potential for some
of that upstream convection to progress into our region with after
and evening isolated showers and storms.

Temperatures are expected to increase during this portion of the
forecast with readings reaching the mid to upper 90s in the east by
Wendesday with a mix of upper 80s and lower 90s across the mountains.
Heat Index values on Wednesday may flirt again with the century mark
across eastern areas.

If more isolated showers and storms do develop Thursday, the added
cloud cover may help temperatures stay a couple of degrees cooler
than those of Wednesday.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 805 PM EDT Thursday...

Southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West
Virginia remain in an unstable air mass between a north to south
oriented boundary from central Pennsylvania to central Virginia
and a cold front that trailed across the Ohio Valley.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening.
Some of the storms will have gusty wind and very heavy rainfall,
with MVFR to IFR visibility.

More numerous thunderstorms will develop after 15Z/11AM on
Friday as the cold front reaches the area. Any of the stronger
storms will have MVFR ceilings and visibility along with erratic
gusty wind. Aside from the thunderstorms winds will be from the
southwest to west with gusts of 15 to 25 knots during the
afternoon.

Below average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue until the
front pushes south of the area on Friday night.

Mostly VFR conditions are in store for the weekend into early
next week with high pressure building into the region from the
north.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 555 PM EDT Thursday...

No observations from KDAN have been received since a severe
thunderstorm came across the airport. The exact cause of the
outage and time that observations will be restored is unknown at
this time.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...AMS/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
910 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-180115-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
910 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight. A few of these could
become strong to severe producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday as a cold front
moves southward through the area. A few of these storms could become
strong to severe producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation is possible Friday to provide reports on
severe thunderstorms. Reports should be submitted via phone by
calling 1-866-215-4324, through our social media platforms, by email
at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov, or online through our "submit a storm
report" located at www.weather.gov/rnk.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1133 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW GRAYSONTOWN       37.08N 80.63W
06/16/2022                   PULASKI            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON STATE PARK RD NEAR CLAYTOR
            LAKE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1135 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE DUBLIN            37.09N 80.69W
06/16/2022                   PULASKI            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN DUBLIN ON RT 100.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1217 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

VAZ022-023-170445-
Botetourt VA-Roanoke VA-
1217 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Roanoke and
southwestern Botetourt Counties and the City of Roanoke through 1245
AM EDT...

At 1216 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hollins, or near Catawba, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Vinton...
Hollins...
Cloverdale...
and Roanoke Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 7984 3731 7985 3730 7984 3729 7985
      3728 7985 3727 7986 3725 7985 3717 7993
      3740 8010 3744 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 304DEG 19KT 3739 8001

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1238 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

VAZ007-010-011-WVZ042>044-170515-
Tazewell VA-Giles VA-Bland VA-Mercer WV-Summers WV-Monroe WV-
1238 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
central Giles, central Tazewell, northern Bland, southwestern
Summers, Mercer and southwestern Monroe Counties through 115 AM
EDT...

At 1238 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Bozoo to War. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bluefield...
Princeton...
Tazewell...
Pearisburg...
Hinton...
Narrows...
and Pembroke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3724 8174 3720 8168 3721 8156 3726 8150
      3727 8142 3742 8131 3742 8128 3746 8131
      3751 8121 3757 8120 3760 8114 3759 8109
      3764 8107 3772 8097 3770 8091 3767 8090
      3768 8088 3731 8054 3707 8163 3720 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 295DEG 34KT 3745 8084 3729 8166

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SH