Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
240 PM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers/storms through Wednesday, more likely in the afternoon
and evening hours. Flash flooding possible through the weekend.
Cold front end of next week brings drier conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

The area remains primed for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms throughout the near term period as passing
shortwaves tap into moisture flowing in along southwest flow and
diurnal heating. At the time of writing, showers remained
prevalent across the western flank of the forecast area where
overcast skies vanquished any peeks of sunshine while the Middle
Ohio Valley into West Virginia observed enough clearing today
to allow for convection to sprout.

Forecast soundings depict steering flow aloft to be rather
light today, which will result in storm motion to be relatively
slow towards the northeast. Radar analysis paints small storm
cores of having 1-2" of rain encompassed within most cells this
afternoon, which coupled with slow movement spells the potential
for flash flooding. Have already seen a few instance of flash
flooding within these slow moving storms, and will likely remain
the trend heading into the evening.

Convection could remain ongoing overnight despite the loss of
daytime heating with passing shortwave contribution allowing for
its longevity. Any break that does transpire will be brief as
shower and thunderstorms redevelop early on Saturday, beginning
along the Ohio River Valley in the morning and then ramping up
along the higher terrain the afternoon and evening hours. Little
change in upper level flow will then once again support slow
moving convection and the potential for flash flooding for the
conclusion of the near term period.

Hourly temperatures will be disturbed through the course of the
afternoon by cold pools brought upon by downbursts within
thunderstorms. This will become the case once again on Saturday
afternoon when showers and thunderstorms peruse overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Friday...

Sunday will be somewhat seasonal with passing clouds and highs in
the mid to lower 80s through out the CWA. An upper level disturbance
will be situated over Western PA as well as shortwave trough that
could cause some showers and storms, some could be on the stronger
side with CAPE values around 1500-2000 J/KG. Once again this could
be a concern for flash flooding if any storms train over certain
areas. Will continue with the flood watch through Sunday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 PM Friday...

The beginning of the week will be much of the same as a front starts
to move into the area on Tuesday bringing more unsettled weather
before exiting on Thursday. Concerned about additional water
problems as the front moves through Wednesday. A secondary less
active front then moves through on Friday, which means next
weekend will be dry with mild temperatures and low humidity.
Current models are predicting low temperatures to be in the 60s
in the lowlands and 40s-50s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Friday...

The episodic period of active weather continues through this
TAF package as showers and thunderstorms sprout during peak
heating hours. Strong and healthy storms will be capable of
depleting flight conditions as they pass over a terminal, so all
sites will have an inclusion of TEMPOs to reflect possible vsby
reductions heading into this evening. AMDs may be warranted
through the course of the next few hours pending uptick in winds
and lower vsbys than advertised.

Convection dwindles late this evening, but river valley fog then
takes control for the early morning hours Saturday. Harder hit
areas from rain today will likely observe IFR or worse fog
overnight into the predawn hours. Any fog that does develop will
then erode after sunrise Sunday morning.

Additional shower and storm chances will take shape Saturday
afternoon and will once again put a hindrance on flight rules
for the final few hours of the current TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of convection may vary
this afternoon and evening pending radar trends.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...MEK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
449 AM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-
060900-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-
449 AM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and much of the lowlands of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

The flash flood threat may start to diminish by Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-039-040-515>526-060900-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
449 AM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and the
mountains of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Some storms may
produce locally damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

TRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
654 PM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022

WVZ025-026-515-052315-
Northwest Raleigh WV-Boone WV-Logan WV-
654 PM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Logan
and southeastern Boone Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 654 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Amherstdale-Robinette, or 10 miles east of Logan, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Amherstdale-Robinette, Wharton, Bald Knob and Amherstdale-Robine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.

&&

LAT...LON 3776 8181 3786 8183 3794 8159 3779 8150
      3779 8153 3778 8155 3777 8158 3778 8159
      3779 8161 3778 8164 3777 8169 3777 8170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 258DEG 20KT 3784 8179

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

11

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