Tornado Warning 32, NWS Raleigh, NC

436 
WWUS52 KRAH 111658
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1158 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

NCC185-111707-
/O.EXP.KRAH.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-221111T1700Z/
Warren NC-
1158 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
NOON EST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EST for central North
Carolina.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Raleigh.

LAT...LON 3653 7790 3645 7797 3648 7807 3654 7807
      3654 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 193DEG 30KT 3657 7799 

$$

JJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
850 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Nicole will move across the western Carolinas today
and tonight. Another mild dry is expected Saturday before a cold
front Saturday night brings sharply colder temperatures for next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 850 AM Friday...

Quick update this morning to relfect near term changes. Updated PoPs
and weather to account for radar trends with NNW-SSE band of
convection lifting north across central NC. This band will account
for the primary severe weather threat and potential tornadoes
through the midday hours. Temperature and dew points have also been
updated with the inland penetration of the coastal front.

Previous discussion from 245 am: The center of Nicole is currently
over southwest Georgia, and it should move north towards Atlanta and
then northeastward along the east side of the Appalachian Mountains
before being absorbed by an approaching cold front. Outer bands of
rain have been sweeping across the state for several hours, although
so far lightning has only been observed across South Carolina and
offshore with a lack of instability across North Carolina. While
multiple bands will continue to lift from south to north overnight,
most CAMs are in good agreement that a stronger line will move from
South Carolina north through North Carolina between sunrise and
noon, which is represented in the hourly precipitation forecasts.
There could be several hours where no precipitation will be falling
and some partial clearing may occur, particularly south of the
Triangle. As Nicole transitions to an extratropical cyclone, CAMs
show another stronger line of showers/thunderstorms moving from west
to east, reaching the Triad around sunset and the Triangle 2-3 hours
later. Although rain should continue for a few hours after this
line, the most intense rainfall is likely to occur with the morning
band and the evening band.

As for hazards, the dry weather over the last month means that the
ground should be able to absorb the 1-2 inches of rainfall forecast,
with locally higher amounts possible, with the greatest amounts
across western counties. With the center of Nicole's circulation
remaining well west of the area, maximum sustained wind should be 15-
20 mph, but the wind will be gusty through the day, and the evening
band is likely to have the strongest wind of the day - 35 to 45 mph.
Finally, the entire area is under a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather, with the primary threats being isolated tornadoes
and damaging wind. Veering wind with height will increase the
potential for rotating storms, and the onshore flow from the
southeast will provide plenty of moisture. In addition, any partial
clearing that occurs in the afternoon could allow for greater
surface heating that could be tapped by the evening line of
thunderstorms.

Daytime highs should be in the 70s everywhere, with an isolated
reading of 80 degrees possible near Fayetteville. Overnight lows
will remain mild, ranging from the mid 50s in the west to the mid
60s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

A surface boundary will linger across the area Saturday, and while
there will be partly cloudy skies, the daytime forecast remains dry.
However, with an upper level trough approaching Saturday night, the
additional lift should support at least a slight chance of showers.
Model guidance is a bit of a mixed bag with the system - the 00Z
ECMWF seems to be a wet outlier compared to its previous ensemble
system, the NAM is a middle of the road solution, and both the GFS
and GEFS are rather dry.

Saturday will be the last warm day in the forecast, with upper 60s
expected in the Triad for highs with 70s elsewhere. However, with a
shift in winds to the northwest behind the boundary Saturday night,
overnight lows will fall about 15 degrees compared to tonight, with
values ranging from the upper 30s in the Triad to the lower 50s in
the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM Friday...

Much colder throughout the period, coldest Mon morning, and wet Tue
and Tue night.

A high amplitude ridge will develop and persist along the west coast
of North America through next week, with 500 mb height anomalies
forecast to reach 3-5 sigma below average over the Gulf of Alaska.
Highly meridional flow around that ridge will deliver cold air from
Siberia swd into the cntl US, where broad cyclonic flow will become
centered. A notable shortwave trough, currently a mid/upper-level
low approaching the Pacific Northwest coast, will migrate through
that trough and lift from the srn Plains and lwr MS Valley Mon-Mon
night newd across the srn Appalachians and Mid Atlantic Tue-Tue
night.

At the surface, a series of continental Polar surface highs will
expand east across the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid Atlantic - the
first Sunday night-Monday and a second mid to late week. Meanwhile,
Miller A surface low pressure will accompany the aforementioned
mid/upper-level low off the Pacific Northwest coast and develop/
track from the wrn Gulf of Mexico to the Mid Atlantic coast, with
associated moisture and lift that will interact with the first of
the two cP highs and result in classical, diabatically-enhanced cold
air damming Tue-Tue night, when daytime highs over the NC Piedmont
may reach 20-25 F below average. Daytime highs will otherwise range
about 10 F below average through the period, or upper 40s to mid
50s. Clouds, a chilly rain, and CAD will keep low temperatures
nearer to average, except with excellent radiational cooling of the
first cP high Mon morning, when mid 20s to lwr 30s are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 740 AM Friday...

A warm front separating LIFR/IFR conditions and light nely surface
winds from MVFR/VFR conditions and a gusty sely surface wind will
continue to advance nwwd, along with an increasingly-humid and
unstable airmass, across cntl NC today. A developing/intensifying
band of showers and storms extending at 12Z from near HBI to SOP to
CPC will continue to spread nwd and impact cntl NC TAF sites through
~18-19Z, A separate band of rain and isolated storms will accompany
the leading edge of the remnant circulation of Nicole as it crosses
the region between 22Z-04Z. While clearing to VFR will likely occur
that band at INT/GSO by 05-06Z, continued IFR-MVFR ceilings will
otherwise linger at FAY, RWI, and RDU through Sat morning.

Outlook: A low pressure system will cross the region and interact
with unseasonably strong/cold high pressure that will be centered
over the Northeast Tue-Wed. Widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions,
including LIFR ones in cold air damming over at least the NC
Piedmont, if not all of cntl NC, will result.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Blaes/JT/Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
620 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

NCZ007>011-023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-121200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
620 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 569 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

In addition, there is a slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe weather
today, with the primary threats of isolated tornadoes and damaging
wind. There may also be a limited threat of some minor localized
flooding of poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ021-022-038-121200-
Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-
620 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 569 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

In addition, there is a slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe weather
today, with the primary threats of isolated tornadoes and damaging
wind. Finally, there is a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive
rainfall today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
934 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

NCZ007-008-024-025-111530-
Durham NC-Person NC-Orange NC-Granville NC-
934 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Person,
northeastern Orange, northwestern Granville and central Durham
Counties through 1030 AM EST...

At 933 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Durham, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Durham, Roxboro, Hillsborough, Butner, Rougemont, Stem, Lake Michie,
Eno River State Park, Bahama and Schley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EST for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3638 7857 3596 7887 3600 7908 3645 7905
      3650 7883
TIME...MOT...LOC 1433Z 190DEG 28KT 3603 7897

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
934 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

NCZ008-025-041-042-111500-
Johnston NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Granville NC-
934 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Granville, central Wake, western Johnston and southeastern Durham
Counties through 1000 AM EST...

At 934 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Fuquay-Varina to near Godwin. Movement was
north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Garner, Clayton, Butner, Benson, RDU International,
Morrisville, Knightdale and Falls Lake State Rec Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EST for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 7879 3569 7843 3536 7856 3537 7857
      3539 7858 3540 7860 3541 7860 3543 7861
      3544 7861 3546 7863 3584 7883
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 183DEG 40KT 3558 7882 3521 7862

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1013 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

NCZ042-111545-
Johnston NC-
1013 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Johnston
County through 1045 AM EST...

At 1012 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Benson, or 9 miles southwest of Smithfield, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Clayton, Benson, Four Oaks and Flowers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EST for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 7856 3566 7853 3571 7847 3570 7832
      3537 7841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1512Z 184DEG 36KT 3542 7848

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1014 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

NCZ008-026-041-111545-
Franklin NC-Wake NC-Granville NC-
1014 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Granville, central Wake and west central Franklin Counties through
1045 AM EST...

At 1014 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wake Forest, or 7 miles northeast of Raleigh, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Creedmoor, Wake Forest, Garner, Franklinton, Knightdale,
Rolesville, Youngsville, Falls Lake State Rec Area and Falls Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EST for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 7840 3567 7853 3568 7866 3614 7872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1514Z 184DEG 31KT 3590 7857

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1114 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NNE SILER CITY        35.75N 79.45W
11/11/2022                   CHATHAM            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            A FIREFIGHTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AT US
            421 AND SILER CITY SNOW CAMP RD.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1116 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     FRANKLINTON             36.10N 78.46W
11/11/2022                   FRANKLIN           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FIREFIGHTER AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR
            REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AT US 1 AND NC 56.

&&

MWS