Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Convection firing across the area at mid-afternoon, with severe
storms/supercells already developing as surface CAPE is running
1500-2500 J/KG across the plains and 0-6km shear is around 50 kts.
Current radar trends and various CAMs continue to suggest
strongest storms along the Palmer Divide moving e-se and
potentially brushing Kiowa County, while another cluster of
stronger storms pushes eastward across Las Animas/Baca
Counties. Activity looks to be more isolated elsewhere back along
I-25, though potential for severe with any storm east of the
mountains remains. Main storm risk will be large hail, as we've
already had golfball to nearly tennis ball hail with a storm in El
Paso County, though tornado potential over the plains will
increase east of an Eads/Kim line toward 23z, as low level wind
field strengthens and storms move toward the main instability
axis. CAMSs then suggest activity congeals into a loosely
organized line over the far eastern plains later this evening,
which could increase the damaging wind risk before storms exit
into KS/OK/TX by late evening.

Overnight, cold front races south through the plains, with a
period of gusty winds and perhaps a shower/sprinkle over the
southeast mountain slopes and plains after midnight, as post
frontal air-mass briefly saturates. On Wednesday, generally
cooler/more stable air mass in place across the area in the wake
of the cold front. with many models suggesting little if any deep
convection developing. Suspect there will still be enough weak
instability over the mountains for a few afternoon storms, with
greatest chances over the srn Sangres where model CAPE is around
500 J/KG. Max temps will end up below seasonal averages over the
plains, while mountains and valleys see little change as cooler
air stays east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

1) Strong to severe storms possible on Thursday.

2) Drying and warming trend expected for southern Colorado going
into this weekend.

Wednesday Night and Thursday..

Despite cold frontal passage on Wednesday morning, overnight low
temperatures look to stay fairly normal for Wednesday night with
most areas falling into the 50s on the plains and 40s in the
mountains. Strong westerlies and a building ridge aloft will send
daytime highs soaring well into the nineties on our eastern plains
and mid to upper 80s for higher terrain. Another quick moving
disturbance in the flow aloft moves across central CO by Thursday
afternoon, bringing with it some chances for more thunderstorm
activity, some of which could be severe.

Moisture advection will be aided by the presence of lower pressure
over the Great Basin and higher pressure over the central plains.
With this set up, orographics will be enough to initiate general
convection on Thursday afternoon. Increased instability over the
plains will lead to a potential to see some strong to severe
development as storms move off the mountains and into the more
favorable environment around peak heating. With classic "inverted v"
forecast soundings and forecasted DCAPE values over 1800 J/Kg in the
plains, the main threat for these storms looks to be strong and
variable outflow winds. The wetting rain potential looks better
further east, but we could see more virga than rain along the I-25
corridor.

Friday through Sunday..

GEFS and EPS are in good agreement with ridging continuing to build
in aloft from Friday through the weekend. A very weak frontal
passage early on Friday will cool us down slightly and keep highs in
the upper 80s on the plains, but we will likely maintain above
average daytime highs throughout the weekend. Humidity values stay
high enough to avoid fire weather headlines east of Interstate 25
all weekend, but we will likely hit Red Flag criteria on both Friday
and Sunday afternoon in the San Luis Valley where humidity falls
into the low teens as early as 11am.

Monday and Tuesday..

Ensembles start to diverge with confidence in the upper pattern
decreasing significantly as we head into next week. Both the GEFS
and EPS hint at a transition to troughing and strong southwesterly
flow to start out our work week, but timing and placement vary
substantially. GEFS seems to be the most consistent from run to run,
and would keep the overall system rather north of us. If this
placement is to be believed, then Monday will likely be a fairly
widespread fire weather day for us in south central and southeastern
Colorado as any precipitation would be limited to our central
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, as most tsra this evening should
stay over the higher terrain along the eastern edge of the San
Luis Valley. W-SW winds will become gusty this afternoon, before
diminishing this evening and overnight. On Wednesday, tsra again
possible over the mountains surrounding the Valley, but chance of
a storm at the airport looks low.

At KCOS and KPUB, vcts at both terminals until 00z-01z. Brief
MVFR/IFR vis possible with any stronger storms, along with a risk
of hail as well. Cold front then moves through both airports 05z-
06z, bringing north winds gusting to 30 kts through the morning on
Wed. Expect VFR cigs behind the front, with some patchy MVFR just
north of KCOS near the Palmer Divide. On Wednesday, any tsra will
stay mainly over the higher terrain west of both terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-081745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1143 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along
and east of the mountains today, with the greatest risk for
severe thunderstorms from the I-25 corridor eastward through the
plains. Hail up to the size of baseballs and wind gusts around 70
mph will be the primary storm risks between 2 PM and 9 PM, before
thunderstorms move east of the area by 11 pm. An isolated tornado
will be possible, especially in the vicinity of the Palmer Divide
and Raton Ridge.

Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible across
portions of the San Luis Valley and upper Arkansas River Valley in
Chaffee county this afternoon and early evening due to gusty winds
and low relative humidity. However these conditions are expected to
remain brief and localized.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
possible across the eastern mountains and plains for Wednesday
through Sunday. A couple of storms could be strong to severe
Wednesday and Thursday. The main hazards with those storms would be
cloud to ground lightning, large hail up to 1 inch, and strong winds
up to 60 mph.

Critical Fire Weather conditions are possible across portions of
the San Luis Valley Friday, and then more widespread across
southern Colorado Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

10/SIMCOE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

COZ084-085-072115-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central El
Paso County through 315 PM MDT.  Large hail should exit into Lincoln
County shortly, with smaller hail still a threat through 315 PM
MDT...

At 259 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rush, or 37 miles southwest of Limon, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3891 10406 3874 10405 3880 10422 3889 10421
      3892 10416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 279DEG 25KT 3881 10409

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

kam

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
343 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HAIL             3 NNE FALCON            38.97N 104.60W
06/07/2022  E1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE ONGOING AS REPORTED BY
            TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

COHEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
351 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

COZ094-072215-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
351 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Las
Animas County through 415 PM MDT...

At 350 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Branson, or 22 miles north of Des Moines, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Las
Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3712 10393 3727 10387 3742 10357 3701 10334
      3700 10374 3700 10382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 269DEG 24KT 3709 10379

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Cohen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
355 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             7 NNE COLORADO CITY     38.04N 104.80W
06/07/2022  E1.25 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
416 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

COZ094-072245-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
416 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Las
Animas County through 445 PM MDT...

At 416 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles east of Branson, or 23 miles northeast of Des Moines, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Las
Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 10376 3716 10372 3714 10317 3700 10324
      3700 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 297DEG 25KT 3705 10361

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Cohen/MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
421 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

COZ097-072300-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
421 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Bent County
through 500 PM MDT...

At 420 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms developing across western Bent County, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Las Animas, Hasty, John Martin Reservoir, Blue Lake and Fort Lyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 10340 3825 10339 3826 10295 3771 10295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 241DEG 27KT 3800 10339

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Cohen/MG