River Flood Advisory 2, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
348 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Key messages:

1) Showers and thunderstorms, some strong, expected over the higher
terrain and adjacent plains this evening. Main hazards will be penny
to nickel sized hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph.

2) Potential for burn scar flooding this evening, especially for the
Spring burn scar.

1) Another day of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
for Wednesday, mainly tied to the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor.
Spring burn scar will again be under a flash flood threat.

Currently...Temperatures have warmed into the 70s and 80s across the
area this afternoon as of 1 PM, with dewpoints hanging in the 50s to
around 60F. Plenty of available moisture and daytime insolation have
once again sparked isolated convection over the higher elevations.
Cells have been stationary or very slow-moving, but so far have not
produced any localized flooding issues.

Tonight and Tomorrow...Very similar set-up over the next 24 hours,
with a broad area of upper high pressure over the southern and
western US, while a stronger low pressure center begins dropping
south into southern Canada and the Great Lakes. This high pressure
covering Colorado has kept monsoon moisture in place across the Four
Corners, while an east to southeast flow at the surface has kept
llvl moisture socked in across the eastern plains which is evident
with the persistent 50-60F dewpoints. Anywhere from 1500-2700 j/kg of
CAPE is expected to remain across the eastern plains tonight and
then again for Wed, which is another indicator of plenty of
available fuel for convection. Forecast bulk shear for the area
remains somewhat light, though there are 35 kts of shear predicted
along the Palmer Divide and stretching across Kiowa County this
evening, then again Wed aftn, so if storms were to become stronger
or near severe these would be the most likely areas.

Otherwise, with somewhat light flow aloft, convection that does
develop is not expected to move very quickly, which leads into a
flash flooding threat due to saturated ground in some areas and for
area burn scars. Look for widespread showers and thunderstorms over
the higher terrain, I-25 Corridor, Palmer Divide and Raton Meas east
across Baca County this evening, with activity ending gradually by 2
or 3 AM. Area of concern for flash flooding will be the Spring burn
scar. Activity fires back up tomorrow by 10 or 11 AM over the
southern portions of the forecast area, with the focus once again
being the mts and adjacent plains. Forecast QPF is higher for
tomorrow, so there will be more of a concern for flash flooding for
area burn scars with the Spring scar once again being highlighted.

Plan on overnight low temps tonight in the 50s for the high valleys,
and upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Tomorrow the mercury is
forecast to warm into the 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and
80s to lower 90s for the plains. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Key messages:

1) Cooler with widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

2) Potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially Thursday
   and Friday.

3) Warmer and drier across the plains late weekend into early next week,
   with continued daily chances of diurnal storms across the higher
   terrain.

Wednesday night-Friday night...Diffuse flow aloft remains progged
across the region through the day on Friday, as upper level high
pressure across the southern plains slowly re-establishes across the
Desert Southwest and Great Basin region, while short waves translate
around the long wave trough and upper low in place across Upper Midwest
and Upper Great Lakes. Models continue to indicate monsoonal moisture
plume to remain in place across the Desert SW into the Rockies, with
continued minor disturbances moving through the Rockies, helping to
support convective development. Latest models also support short wave
energy digging down the Upper Midwest trough, sending a front across
the eastern Plains Wednesday night, leading to possible storms along
the passing boundary Wednesday night/Thursday morning, as well and
increasing low level moisture across the southeast plains through the
day on Thursday within developing easterly upslope flow behind the
front. With said ample moisture in place, along with uvv associated
with the embedded disturbances, weak waa and low level upslope flow
across the plains, model data supports widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity across all of south central and southeast Colorado Thursday
and Thursday night. With the weak flow aloft and expected slow
movement and possible training of storms, there will be an increased
potential of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, not only on area
burn scars, but across much of south central and southeast Colorado.
Where the heaviest rain will fall remains in question with model
qpf of 1 to 2 inches remain progged across the area through this
timeframe, however EPS and GEFS ensemble probability of precipitation
over 2 inches is greatest along and south of the Highway 50 Corridor
on Thursday.

A similar setup remains in store across the region on Friday, with
moisture and embedded waves moving through the Rockies. Again, where
the heaviest precipitation sets up will depend on mesoscale features,
and have continued to stay the course with the broadbrush high end
NBM pops areawide.

As for temperatures, upslope flow behind the front and expected
precipitation, temperatures on Thursday and Friday look to be well
below seasonal averages, especially across the plains with highs
only in the 70s and 80s, and mainly 50s and 60s expected across
the higher terrain.

Saturday-Monday...Latest models also remain consistent in a drier and
warmer pattern change in the offing, especially across the eastern
plains, as the upper high re-establishing across the Great Basin
develops drier northerly flow aloft across the Rockies. This will
lead to a gradual drying and warming trend areawide, though will
be most pronounced across the plains, as daily chances of afternoon
showers and storms remain expected over and near the higher terrain.
Temperatures look be warm back to at to slightly above seasonal
levels into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Expecting mostly VFR conditions at all stations, KALS, KCOS and
KPUB, but cigs could lower in the vicinity of possible showers or
thunderstorms between 19Z and 00Z Wednesday afternoon at KALS,
around 22Z Wednesday afternoon at KCOS and KPUB.  Winds at all TAF
stations will start out gusty, out of the southwest at KALS and out
of the northeast at KCOS and KPUB due to outflow from diminishing
thunderstorms just after 00Z this afternoon. Afterward, winds will
be mostly light, except for gusty winds out of the southwest at KALS
in vicinity of the 19Z Wednesday afternoon showers or thunderstorms,
and out of the southeast in the vicinity of the 22Z Wednesday
afternoon showers or thunderstorms at KCOS and KPUB.
-Riser

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RISER/MOORE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1229 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-271300-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1229 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. The biggest concern will be flash flooding over the
Spring burn scar beginning this afternoon and lasting through
around 9pm. An isolated stronger storm is possible over the Palmer
Divide and the Raton Mesa, with the main hazards being wind gusts
from 30 to 45 MPH, hail the size of pennies and nickels,
lightning, and locally heavy rain. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible over the mountains and mountain valleys as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The main risks with thunderstorms will be
heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding, along with
dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. A couple of storms could
produce wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph and small hail across the
southeast plains.

The unsettled pattern will continue through Saturday, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day,
especially for the mountains. The risk for flash flooding will be
elevated each day, especially for the burn scars and urbanized
areas. A couple of strong storms will be possible at times. The
highest risk for flash flooding will occur on Thursday and
Friday. On Sunday, afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be
more isolated and confined to the mountains, with only a few
thunderstorms possible along the I-25 corridor and over the San
Luis Valley. On Monday, afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
be even more isolated and mainly over the central mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

27/23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
858 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CALHAN                  39.03N 104.30W
07/26/2022  M1.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
917 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE CALHAN            39.04N 104.26W
07/26/2022  M1.80 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

            1.8 INCHES STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS
            EVENING.

&&

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