Flood Watch 2, NWS Pueblo, CO

392 
WGUS65 KPUB 280839
FFAPUB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
239 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

.The potential for localized flash flooding will increase on 
Thursday across a large part of south-central and southeast Colorado.

COZ095>099-281645-
/O.EXB.KPUB.FA.A.0002.220728T2200Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Kiowa County-Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent
County-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca
County-
Including the cities of Eads, Lamar, Sheridan Lake, Springfield, Las 
Animas, and Walsh
239 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Kiowa County, Prowers County, Bent County, and Baca County.

* WHEN...From this afternoon through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - For safety information, please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ089-281645-
/O.EXA.KPUB.FA.A.0002.220728T1600Z-220729T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crowley County-
Including the cities of Ordway and Olney Springs
239 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Crowley County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM MDT this morning through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding of 
  low-lying areas, creeks, streams and canyons, and other 
  flood-prone locations, along with debris flows. Flash flooding 
  could become significant in a few locations, especially if 
  repeated rounds of heavy rainfall were to affect flood-prone 
  areas. Burn scars will be especially susceptible to flash flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - For safety information, please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ094-281645-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FA.A.0002.220728T2200Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Eastern Las Animas County-
Including the cities of Branson and Kim
239 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Eastern Las Animas County.

* WHEN...From this afternoon through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - For safety information, please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ062-065>075-077>080-083>088-093-281645-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.220728T1600Z-220729T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-Saguache County East of
Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-La Garita Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Del Norte
Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Alamosa 
Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Southern San Luis
Valley-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And
11000 Feet-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-Western/Central
Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-Wet Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-Northern El
Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet-Colorado
Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-Walsenburg
Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-Trinidad
Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-La Junta
Vicinity/Otero County-
Including the cities of South Fork, Cotopaxi, Howard, Rye, Coaldale, 
Stonewall, Hillside, Walsenburg, Penrose, Canon City, La Junta, 
Pueblo, Blanca, Manassa, San Luis, Cumbres Pass, Alamosa, La Veta 
Pass, Del Norte, Swissvale, La Jara, Texas Creek, Rocky Ford, 
Salida, Wolf Creek Pass, Buena Vista, Center, Creede, North Pass, 
Poncha Pass, Spanish Peaks, Westcliffe, Silver Cliff, Black Forest, 
Weston, Monte Vista, Peterson AFB, Trinidad, Antonito, Fort Garland, 
Blanca Peak, Cuchara, Sanford, and Colorado Springs
239 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A large portion of south-central and southeast Colorado, 
  including the mountains, mountain valleys, and nearby plains.

* WHEN...From 10 AM MDT this morning through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding of 
  low-lying areas, creeks, streams and canyons, and other 
  flood-prone locations, along with debris flows. Flash flooding 
  could become significant in a few locations, especially if 
  repeated rounds of heavy rainfall were to affect flood-prone 
  areas. Burn scars will be especially susceptible to flash flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - For safety information, please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

KS

437 
WGUS65 KPUB 280851
FFAPUB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
251 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

.The potential for localized flash flooding will increase on 
Thursday across a large part of south-central and southeast Colorado.

COZ062-065>075-077>080-083>089-093-281700-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FA.A.0002.220728T1600Z-220728T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-Saguache County East of
Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-La Garita Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Del Norte
Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Alamosa 
Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Southern San Luis
Valley-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And
11000 Feet-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-Western/Central
Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-Wet Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-Northern El
Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet-Colorado
Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-Walsenburg
Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-Trinidad
Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-Crowley County-La
Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Including the cities of South Fork, Cotopaxi, Howard, Rye, Coaldale, 
Stonewall, Hillside, Walsenburg, Penrose, Canon City, La Junta, 
Pueblo, Blanca, Manassa, San Luis, Cumbres Pass, Alamosa, La Veta 
Pass, Del Norte, Swissvale, La Jara, Texas Creek, Rocky Ford, 
Salida, Ordway, Wolf Creek Pass, Buena Vista, Center, Creede, North 
Pass, Poncha Pass, Spanish Peaks, Westcliffe, Silver Cliff, Black 
Forest, Weston, Olney Springs, Monte Vista, Peterson AFB, Trinidad, 
Antonito, Fort Garland, Blanca Peak, Cuchara, Sanford, and Colorado 
Springs
251 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 
THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A large portion of south-central and southeast Colorado, 
  including the mountains, mountain valleys, and nearby plains.

* WHEN...From 10 AM MDT this morning through this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding of 
  low-lying areas, creeks, streams and canyons, and other 
  flood-prone locations, along with debris flows. Flash flooding 
  could become significant in a few locations, especially if 
  repeated rounds of heavy rainfall were to affect flood-prone 
  areas. Burn scars will be especially susceptible to flash flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - For safety information, please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ094-281700-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FA.A.0002.220728T1600Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Eastern Las Animas County-
Including the cities of Branson and Kim
251 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 
LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Eastern Las Animas County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM MDT this morning through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ095>099-281700-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.220728T2200Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Kiowa County-Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent
County-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca
County-
Including the cities of Eads, Lamar, Sheridan Lake, Springfield, Las 
Animas, and Walsh
251 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Kiowa County, Prowers County, Bent County, and Baca County

* WHEN...From this afternoon through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - For safety information, please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

KS

461 
WGUS65 KPUB 280856
FFAPUB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

.The potential for localized flash flooding will increase on 
Thursday across a large part of south-central and southeast Colorado.

COZ062-065>075-077>080-083>089-093-281700-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FA.A.0002.220728T1600Z-220729T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-Saguache County East of
Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-La Garita Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Del Norte
Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Alamosa 
Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Southern San Luis
Valley-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And
11000 Feet-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-Western/Central
Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-Wet Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-Northern El
Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet-Colorado
Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-Walsenburg
Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-Trinidad
Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-Crowley County-La
Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Including the cities of South Fork, Cotopaxi, Howard, Rye, Coaldale, 
Stonewall, Hillside, Walsenburg, Penrose, Canon City, La Junta, 
Pueblo, Blanca, Manassa, San Luis, Cumbres Pass, Alamosa, La Veta 
Pass, Del Norte, Swissvale, La Jara, Texas Creek, Rocky Ford, 
Salida, Ordway, Wolf Creek Pass, Buena Vista, Center, Creede, North 
Pass, Poncha Pass, Spanish Peaks, Westcliffe, Silver Cliff, Black 
Forest, Weston, Olney Springs, Monte Vista, Peterson AFB, Trinidad, 
Antonito, Fort Garland, Blanca Peak, Cuchara, Sanford, and Colorado 
Springs
256 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A large portion of south-central and southeast Colorado, 
  including the mountains, mountain valleys, and nearby plains.

* WHEN...From 10 AM MDT this morning through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding of 
  low-lying areas, creeks, streams and canyons, and other 
  flood-prone locations, along with debris flows. Flash flooding 
  could become significant in a few locations, especially if 
  repeated rounds of heavy rainfall were to affect flood-prone 
  areas. Burn scars will be especially susceptible to flash flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - For safety information, please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ094-281700-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.220728T1600Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Eastern Las Animas County-
Including the cities of Branson and Kim
256 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 
LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Eastern Las Animas County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM MDT this morning through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ095>099-281700-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.220728T2200Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Kiowa County-Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent
County-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca
County-
Including the cities of Eads, Lamar, Sheridan Lake, Springfield, Las 
Animas, and Walsh
256 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Kiowa County, Prowers County, Bent County, and Baca County.

* WHEN...From this afternoon through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - For safety information, please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

KS

226 
WGUS65 KPUB 281646
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1046 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

COZ062-065>075-077>080-083>089-093-290400-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220729T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-Saguache County East of
Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-La Garita Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Del Norte
Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Alamosa 
Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Southern San Luis
Valley-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And
11000 Feet-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-Western/Central
Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-Wet Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-Northern El
Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet-Colorado
Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-Walsenburg
Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-Trinidad
Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-Crowley County-La
Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Including the cities of Silver Cliff, South Fork, Penrose, Center, 
Coaldale, Cumbres Pass, Blanca Peak, Wolf Creek Pass, Fort Garland, 
Salida, Blanca, Monte Vista, North Pass, Alamosa, Black Forest, La 
Veta Pass, Cuchara, Antonito, Creede, Sanford, Trinidad, San Luis, 
Colorado Springs, Stonewall, Weston, Peterson AFB, Hillside, Rocky 
Ford, Swissvale, Ordway, Rye, Howard, La Jara, Canon City, Manassa, 
Westcliffe, Walsenburg, Pueblo, Spanish Peaks, Poncha Pass, Olney 
Springs, Cotopaxi, Buena Vista, Texas Creek, La Junta, and Del Norte
1046 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central Colorado, east central Colorado, south 
  central Colorado and southeast Colorado, including the following 
  areas, in central Colorado, Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont 
  County, Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet, Del Norte 
  Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet, La Garita 
  Mountains Above 10000 Feet, Saguache County East of Continental 
  Divide Below 10000 Feet and Western/Central Fremont County Below 
  8500 Feet. In east central Colorado, Colorado Springs 
  Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet and 
  Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 
  Feet. In south central Colorado, Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San 
  Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet, Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 
  10000 Feet, Southern San Luis Valley and Upper Rio Grande 
  Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet. In southeast 
  Colorado, Crowley County, La Junta Vicinity/Otero County, Northern 
  Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet, Northern Sangre de 
  Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet, Pueblo 
  Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet, Southern Sangre de Cristo 
  Mountains Above 11000 Feet, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains 
  Between 7500 and 11000 Feet, Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas 
  County Below 7500 Feet, Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River 
  Basin Below 7500 Feet, Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet, Wet 
  Mountains Above 10000 Feet and Wet Mountains between 6300 and 
  10000 Feet.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding of 
  low-lying areas, creeks, streams and canyons, and other 
  flood-prone locations, along with debris flows. Flash flooding 
  could become significant in a few locations, especially if 
  repeated rounds of heavy rainfall were to affect flood-prone 
  areas. Burn scars will be especially susceptible to flash flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - For safety information, please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ094-290400-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Eastern Las Animas County-
Including the cities of Kim and Branson
1046 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Colorado, including the following 
  area, Eastern Las Animas County.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ095>099-290400-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.220728T2200Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Kiowa County-Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent
County-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca
County-
Including the cities of Walsh, Lamar, Springfield, Las Animas, Eads, 
and Sheridan Lake
1046 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON 
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Colorado, including the following 
  areas, Eastern Kiowa County, Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County, Las 
  Animas Vicinity/Bent County, Springfield Vicinity/Baca County and 
  Western Kiowa County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM MDT this afternoon through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms are
    forecast to increase through the day on Thursday, with
    scattered to numerous activity affecting the Watch area
    Thursday afternoon and evening. Very heavy rainfall may
    accompany this activity, which will have the potential to
    result in localized flash flooding. While showers and
    thunderstorms will lessen in coverage Thursday night, heavy
    rainfall could continue into the overnight hours in some
    locations, prolonging the flooding potential. More rounds of
    heavy showers and thunderstorms may extend the risk for flash
    flooding into Friday.
  - For safety information, please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MW

115 
WGUS65 KPUB 290023
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
623 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

COZ062-065>075-077>080-083>089-093-290400-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220729T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-Saguache County East of
Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-La Garita Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Del Norte
Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Alamosa 
Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Southern San Luis
Valley-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And
11000 Feet-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-Western/Central
Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-Wet Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-Northern El
Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet-Colorado
Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-Walsenburg
Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-Trinidad
Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-Crowley County-La
Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Including the cities of Wolf Creek Pass, Manassa, Penrose, Pueblo, 
Poncha Pass, Buena Vista, Monte Vista, Salida, Fort Garland, 
Cuchara, Coaldale, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Sanford, La Junta, Black 
Forest, Weston, Trinidad, Cumbres Pass, Alamosa, Cotopaxi, Blanca, 
Silver Cliff, Colorado Springs, Peterson AFB, Rocky Ford, 
Westcliffe, Ordway, Center, Walsenburg, San Luis, Creede, Howard, La 
Jara, South Fork, Del Norte, Hillside, Rye, North Pass, Stonewall, 
La Veta Pass, Antonito, Olney Springs, Blanca Peak, Spanish Peaks, 
and Canon City
623 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, and 
  southeast Colorado, including the following areas, Central Chaffee 
  County below 9000 feet, the La Garita and eastern San Juan 
  Mountains, the San Luis Valley, the Sangre De Cristo and Wet 
  mountains, the Wet Mountain valley, Central and eastern Fremont 
  County, and El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano, western Las Animas, Crowley 
  and Otero Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Monsoon moisture and upslope flow will trigger showers and
    thunderstorms which may strengthen as they push off the
    mountains through this evening.  Very heavy rainfall will be
    possible which could cause localized flash flooding,
    particularly across the southern I-25 corridor.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ095>099-290830-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Kiowa County-Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent
County-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca
County-
Including the cities of Walsh, Las Animas, Sheridan Lake, Lamar, 
Springfield, and Eads
623 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Colorado, including the following 
  areas, Kiowa, Prowers, Bent and Baca Counties.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM MDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Monsoon moisture and upslope flow will trigger showers and
    thunderstorms across the southeast plains into the overnight
    hours.  Very heavy rainfall will be possible which could
    cause localized flash flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ094-290830-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Eastern Las Animas County-
Including the cities of Kim and Branson
623 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Colorado, including the following 
  area, Eastern Las Animas County.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM MDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Monsoon moisture and upslope flow will trigger showers and
    thunderstorms across the southeast plains into the overnight
    hours.  Very heavy rainfall will be possible which could
    cause localized flash flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

KT

574 
WGUS65 KPUB 290317
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
917 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

COZ062-065>075-077>080-083>089-093-290430-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220729T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-Saguache County East of
Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-La Garita Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Del Norte
Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Alamosa 
Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-Southern San Luis
Valley-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And
11000 Feet-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-Western/Central
Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-Wet Mountains Above
10000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-Northern El
Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet-Colorado
Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-Walsenburg
Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-Trinidad
Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-Crowley County-La
Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Including the cities of Blanca, Antonito, Rye, Silver Cliff, Fort 
Garland, Manassa, La Junta, Center, Salida, Olney Springs, La Veta 
Pass, Alamosa, Peterson AFB, Trinidad, Rocky Ford, Colorado Springs, 
Canon City, Ordway, Black Forest, Blanca Peak, Cumbres Pass, Weston, 
Monte Vista, Spanish Peaks, Wolf Creek Pass, Pueblo, Walsenburg, 
Poncha Pass, Stonewall, Hillside, Penrose, Cuchara, Buena Vista, 
Swissvale, Westcliffe, North Pass, Creede, Coaldale, La Jara, Texas 
Creek, Howard, San Luis, Cotopaxi, South Fork, Del Norte, and Sanford
917 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch is cancelled for portions of central, east 
central, south central, and southeast Colorado, including the 
following areas, Central Chaffee County below 9000 feet, the La 
Garita and eastern San Juan Mountains, the San Luis Valley, the 
Sangre De Cristo and Wet
mountains, the Wet Mountain valley, Central and eastern Fremont   
County, and El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano, western Las Animas, Crowley 
and Otero Counties.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

$$

COZ095>099-290900-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Kiowa County-Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent
County-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca
County-
Including the cities of Lamar, Las Animas, Springfield, Sheridan 
Lake, Walsh, and Eads
917 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Colorado, including the following 
  areas, Eastern Kiowa County, Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County, Las 
  Animas Vicinity/Bent County, Springfield Vicinity/Baca County and 
  Western Kiowa County.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM MDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Monsoon moisture and upslope flow will trigger showers and
    thunderstorms across the southeast plains into the overnight
    hours. Very heavy rainfall will be possible which could cause
    localized flash flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ094-290900-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Eastern Las Animas County-
Including the cities of Kim and Branson
917 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Colorado, including the following 
  area, Eastern Las Animas County.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM MDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Monsoon moisture and upslope flow will trigger showers and
    thunderstorms across the southeast plains into the overnight
    hours. Very heavy rainfall will be possible which could cause
    localized flash flooding.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

SR

631 
WGUS65 KPUB 290848
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
248 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

COZ094>099-291000-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-220729T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-Eastern Kiowa County-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
Including the cities of Las Animas, Walsh, Springfield, Kim, Lamar, 
Sheridan Lake, Branson, and Eads
248 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch will expire for a portion of southeast 
Colorado, including the following areas, Eastern Kiowa County, 
Eastern Las Animas County, Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County, Las Animas 
Vicinity/Bent County, Springfield Vicinity/Baca County and Western 
Kiowa County.

The flash flooding threat has ended. Therefore, the Flash Flood 
Watch will expire at 3 AM MDT early this morning.

$$

KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1204 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Key Messages:

1) Chance for flash flooding over the flash flood prone areas,
specifically over the Spring burn scar.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and
southern plains. A strong storm is possible over the far
southeastern plains.

3) There is a high impact - low confidence environment over El Paso
County. If a thunderstorm develops during the afternoon and evening,
there is higher chance for it to become strong to severe, however
most models are suggesting no thunderstorms developing.

4) A boundary passes over the plains tomorrow morning. Flash
flooding is a concern over areas that received a lot of rain
yesterday due to saturated soils. Moderate to heavy rain may cause
flash flooding.

Currently...

Showers are still hanging on around the far eastern plains and over
the southern plains due to a lingering vort maxima propagating
overhead and some favorable upper level divergence in response to
the 300hPa jet, as weak as it is. We have been monitoring for flash
flood worthy rainfall over highway 160 over Las Animas and Baca
Counties, but flash flood guidance continues to be higher than the
rainfall rates and amounts. All guidance suggests showers will
dissipate by the sunrise.

Today and Tonight:

An amorphous upper ridge remains over the American Southwest and a
broad trough aloft remains over the High Plains and the Midwest.
Some ripples in the upper flow are expected to propagate mainly over
the southern portions of the CWA, which is where models continue to
focus on convective initiation. Coverage of thunderstorms should be
less than yesterday, but there are areas of concern that need to be
discussed. The vast majority of model output (hi-rez, ensembles,
deterministic models, and WPC) are putting bulls-eyes of higher QPF
over the southern mountains, where pockets of greater than 1000 J/kg
of MUCAPE reside. 0-6km bulk shear values are generally less than 20
kts, however, so messy pulse thunderstorms with moderate to heavy
rain and gusty winds are expected. The upper level flow is
relatively weak, so thunderstorms that develop will be slow to move,
which is a concern for flash flooding. The big question, as always,
is where thunderstorms will form. HREF is scattered across the
southern portions of the CWA, which likely means that there will be
showers and thunderstorms around the vicinity of the Spring burn
scar, but it is not a guarantee. Elsewhere, there is a strong theta-
e axis over the plains, which amplifies MUCAPE values of greater
than 2000 J/kg over the far eastern plains. In Baca County, deep
shear values of around 30 to 35 kts in the form of a straight
hodograph exist. Perhaps a stronger storm with large hail and strong
winds is possible. Models are starting to suggest a stronger storm
over the New Mexico-Colorado-Oklahoma border. A truly conditional
situation exists over El Paso County this afternoon. There is
expected to be south-southeast flow pushing up on the Rampart
Mountains and the Palmer Divide equating to low-level upslope.
MUCAPE values exceed 1000 J/kg and deep shear values increase to
around 30 to 35 kts in the afternoon. The environment is primed for
a strong to severe thunderstorm. The main issue is lifting the air.
The main synoptic forcing appears to be too far south, however the
low-level upslope towards the Palmer may be enough to spark
convection initiation.

Now for the evening and overnight period. Convection should
dissipate or be in the process of dissipating by around midnight
tonight, with lingering showers over the mountains and the southern
plains. During the early morning a frontal boundary enhanced with an
outflow is expected to propagate over the plains and is expected to
interact with the mountains creating showers and thunderstorms.
During the short term forecast, the boundary will have at least
entered our CWA creating showers and thunderstorms over the Pikes
Peak region. CAPE values are greater than 1000 J/kg on the leading
edge and behind the front. There is a bit of a cap over the lower
levels, but the mesoscale lift associated with the front should
overcome the cap. The shear is weak, however. So overall, showers
and thunderstorms are expected over the Pikes Peak region during the
early morning with the potential for a stronger storm. The main
concern will be flash flooding since the soils should be
saturated. Any moderate to heavy rain over the northern I-25
corridor may lead to flash flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Key messages:

1) Widely scattered to numerous PM thunderstorms will be possible
over the most areas from Thursday through Saturday. Best chance of
heaviest rainfall totals will be from Thursday through Friday. Some
embedded storms could become strong to severe with strong outflow
winds to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch in diameter as the main threat.

2) PM thunderstorms will become more isolated to scattered on Sunday
and mostly confined to the mountains and southeastern plains. On
Monday through Tuesday, thunderstorm activity will further diminish
and be mainly confined to central mountains.

3) Flash flooding will be possible over the burn scars and urban
areas through Saturday. Highest risk of this will be on Thursday and
Friday. A slight risk of burn scar flooding will be possible from
Sunday through Tuesday if storms become stationary over mountains.

4) A cool down will occur throughout the week with high temperatures
being well below the seasonal average on Thursday and Friday,
followed by a warming trend throughout the weekend and returning to
hot and dry for most areas by early next week.

Detailed discussion:

Thursday through Friday...

The longwave trough will continue to deepen and move down upstream
over the midwestern states, which will allow for another weak cool
front to pass through on Thursday by early in the morning and bring
in much cooler temperatures behind it. A general consensus of the
models puts the this front moving over the northern I-25 corridor
and southward over the lower Arkansas River Valley approximately
between the hours of 3 to 6 AM. This will lead to an increase in
omega forcing, coupled with a much broader and higher influx of
monsoonal moisture over the region, which will produce a vast swath
of developing showers and thunderstorms. This looks to occur over
the northern I-25 corridor and move southward over the lower
Arkansas River Valley, and eventually over the southern plains by
around 11 AM to 2 PM. Winds in the lower levels will be primarily
out of the ENE over the plains and become SE'ly later in the
afternoon, meanwhile the continuous SW'ly mid level flow aloft will
allow for isentropic accent to be in place over much of the CWA
going into the later hours of the afternoon, especially over the
southern I-25 corridor and eastward. Copious amounts of rainfall is
expected given these environmental parameters and there will likely
be areas of flash flooding in the urbanized areas. Better amounts of
rainfall can also be expected along the eastern facing slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains. If storms develop and remain
nearly stationary over the burn scar areas, this could also be a
concern with potential flash flooding in and around these areas.
CAPE over the southeastern plains of around 2000 to 2800 J/kg, and
relatively decent shear of 30 to 35 kts could also result in a
strong to severe thunderstorm, with outflow winds of up to 60 mph or
possibly higher, and hail up to an inch in diameter will be the most
likely threats.

There will also be an increase of instability with a higher influx
of monsoonal moisture in the mid levels over the area again on
Friday with predominantly SE'ly flow in the lower levels and
superimposed SW'ly monsoonal flow in the mid levels which will once
again produce an extensive coverage of moderate to heavy rainfall
possible for many areas with some embedded stronger convection at
times. Friday will also be another unseasonably cool day, with
temperatures right around the same values, or even slightly cooler,
as Thursday.

Saturday through Tuesday...

With the anticyclonic flow around the high positioned over the
southwestern CONUS, the monsoonal moisture will remain in place with
a chance of PM storms over most areas of the CWA going into
Saturday. However, deterministic models are in general agreement
with a positively tilted shift in the ridge axis and expanding of
the ridge northward itself, as well as and the inverted trough
slowly progressing further to the west by Sunday along with the mid
level monsoonal moisture plume. This will reduce the amount of
afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity and keep it more confined to
the mountains, especially by Monday and Tuesday. Most of the
convection should be confined to the mountains and southeast plains
on Sunday, and then even further to the west over the central
mountains on Monday and Tuesday. Models also tend to have the
position of an upper level high being located directly over
Colorado, which will allow for subsidence to likely overcome a lot
of the orographically induced convection over the mountains and
perhaps result in only isolated thunderstorm development on Monday
and Tuesday during the afternoon. The ensemble members continue to
agree with this, with a warming and drying trend reflected in the
overall average of the members from Sunday through Tuesday. Given
this, temperatures can be expected to be back above the seasonal
average by Monday, and even warmer on Tuesday, with a strengthening
ridge overhead.  -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Mainly vfr conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours. Isolated to scattered storms expected to develop over
the mts again this afternoon, with the best coverage across the
southern mts and southern I-25 Corridor. If storms can develop
and move across the terminals, brief mvfr conditions with locally
heavy rainfall will be possible. A frontal boundary remains
progged to move south and west across the eastern plains late
tonight into early Thursday morning, with breezy northerly winds
of 15-25kts possible in its wake. This front may also be a focus
for thunderstorms early tomorrow morning...especially at COS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-281700-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1100 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening, most numerous over the mountains, mountain
valleys, and across southern portions of the eastern plains, with
more isolated to scattered storms possible across northern
portions of the plains.

Storms today will be slow moving and capable of producing heavy
rain, leading to an increased potential for flash flooding,
especially if storms move across area burn scars, as well as
areas that have received heavy rainfall over the past few days.
Other storm threats will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning
and gusty outflow winds to 45 mph.

Over the Raton Mesa and into Baca County, as well as along and
south of the Palmer Divide, a strong to severe storm will be
possible this afternoon with wind gusts to near 60 mph and
penny sized hail possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be likely
for Thursday through Saturday over most areas. The risk for flash
flooding will be elevated for these days, especially for the burn
scars and urbanized areas. The highest risk for flash flooding
will occur on Thursday and Friday. A few embedded stronger and
potentially severe thunderstorms may occur at times, with the
highest probability over the southeastern plains on Thursday
afternoon. Main threat with these storms will be strong and gusty
outflow winds to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch in diameter, along
with torrential rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

On Sunday, afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be more
isolated and confined to the mountains and southeastern plains,
with only a few thunderstorms possible along the I-25 corridor and
over the San Luis Valley. On Monday and Tuesday, afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will be even more isolated and mainly over
the central mountains. There will still be a slight risk of burn
scar flash flooding for each of these days, if thunderstorms
become nearly stationary over these areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

23/23