Flash Flood Warning 81, NWS Pueblo, CO

659 
WGUS75 KPUB 082152
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
352 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

COC023-055-090045-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-220809T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Costilla CO-Huerfano CO-
352 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SPRING BURN SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 645 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN COSTILLA AND 
SOUTHWESTERN HUERFANO COUNTIES...

At 352 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain over the Spring Burn Scar. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has 
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 1 hour 
with the heaviest falling across the southern portions of the burn 
scar. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar may result in debris flow 
moving through the Middle Creek, Vega Creek, Wagon Creek, Indian 
Creek and Rilling Creek. The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, 
vegetation and other loose materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Spring Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Spring Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Spring Burn Scar south of Highway 160 in Costilla county, Spring 
  Burn Scar south of Highway 160 in Huerfano county, Indian Creek on 
  the southeastern Spring Burn Scar, Spring Burn Scar north of 
  Highway 160, La Veta Pass and Cuchara.

This includes the following high risk locations...
Sulphur Springs on Indian Creek, County Road 421 near Indian Creek, 
South Abeyta Creek near County Road 443, South Abeyta Creek near 
County Road 442, South Abeyta Creek near County Road 441 and Pass 
Creek Road.

Although rainfall has diminished across northern portions of the 
Spring Burn Scar, additional thunderstorm activity may develop and 
move into the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall may cause 
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks...streams...and 
ditches in the Spring Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can also be 
anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed away in 
places. If you encounter flood waters...climb to safety.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 10528 3772 10521 3768 10500 3762 10498
      3759 10504 3754 10507 3751 10506 3746 10502
      3739 10504 3735 10520 3737 10530 3744 10532
      3752 10531

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

KT

677 
WGUS75 KPUB 082305
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
505 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

COC023-055-082315-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-220809T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Costilla CO-Huerfano CO-
505 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SPRING BURN SCAR IS CANCELLED FOR 
NORTHEASTERN COSTILLA AND SOUTHWESTERN HUERFANO COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for a portion of 
southeast Colorado.

LAT...LON 3769 10528 3772 10521 3768 10500 3762 10498
      3759 10504 3754 10507 3751 10506 3746 10502
      3739 10504 3736 10517 3735 10520 3737 10530
      3744 10532 3752 10531

$$

EP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1214 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

Have issued a short fused Flash Flood Watch for the Spring burn
scar this afternoon and evening. Very moist air is funneling in
from the southeast with Walsenburg airport reporting 78/60 T/Td on
18z ob. Clear skies have allowed for sufficient heating for TCU to
generate over the mountains, indicative of good instability and
probability of thunderstorms this afternoon. Best chance will be
southern areas, but really can't rule out flash flood producing
heavy rains anywhere where soils are saturated. Models do keep
convection more pinned to the mountains today with steering
currents aloft more northeasterly, so think the risk for the
northern I-25 corridor will be lower. Will also be monitoring the
surface trough axis for deep convective development across Las
Animas, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties where dew points in the
60s can yield CAPE to around 2000 J/kg. While heavy rainfall and
flash flooding will be the primary risk, a briefly strong to near
severe storm will be possible with heavy rain and damaging winds
possible. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

Key Messages...

1.  Scattered storms today, with most of activity south of US50

Currently...Cloudy skies prevailed across nearly all the region at 3
AM, and showers were still ongoing across the plains. However,
noticeably much drier air was located over northern and western
Colorado at this hour.

Today...

a few showers will likely continue through the morning over the
plains and quite a bit of clouds are likely to remain over the
region through the day. Showers will pick up in coverage and
intensity by mid afternoon most areas, with the least amount of
activity over the NW section of the fcst area (C mtn region). During
the afternoon time period the greatest coverage will be south of
US50, especially across the Raton Mesa region. Some of these showers
will produce locally heavy rain once again, and flood prone areas,
such as the Spring Burn scar will once again be under the gun for
flash flooding. The entire fcst area is under marginal risk for
excessive rainfall, with the souther tier under a slight risk.

Temperature-wise, today will be a pleasant day, with readings in the
70s to mid 80s across the plains and upper 70s most of the valleys;
50s and 60s mtns.

Tonight...

Best chance of showers will be over the far eastern plains with
decreasing activity over the higher terrain. By late evening, all
showers should cease and skies should be mostly clear during the
early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

Key Messages:

1) Daily precipitation chances are expected, mostly over the
mountains, each afternoon.

2) Temperatures will slowly warm to above average values through
Sunday.

Tuesday - Sunday... Looking at the long term period, not much has
changed in thoughts as compared to yesterdays long term forecast,
with warming temperatures and daily precipitation chances.
Synoptically, a large ridge of high pressure will slowly meander
around the Colorado region, which is supported in the GEFS and EPS
ensemble models. This pattern is generally unfavorable for
precipitation development given the synoptic subsidence with the
ridge. However, an amorphous moisture stream will be present on the
western periphery of the ridge. Also, given the flow aloft around
the ridge, persistent orographic lift will be taking place. With the
moisture stream and orographic lift, daily scattered to numerous
rain showers and thunderstorms are expected across the mountains,
especially the central and western mountains. Also given the
direction of the flow around the high pressure, rain showers and
thunderstorms will be pushed off the higher terrain and allow for
scattered precipitation across the mountain valleys during the
afternoons. As for across the eastern plains, conditions are
expected to remain dry, with chances for isolated precipitation at
most, as the synoptic descent remains more dominant over that
region. As for temperatures, a warming trend is expected across
southern Colorado. With the ridge helping to keep the eastern plains
dry, the greatest warm up will take place across that area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1043 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

VFR conditions will dominate the TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Another round of thunderstorms will develop over the
mountains but may have a harder time impacting the KCOS and KPUB
terminals. KCOS stands the best chance and VCSH will reflect this
for now. If surface heating is sufficient, may need to update this
for VCTS or TSRA but will follow satellite and radar trends and
make necessary adjustments. KPUB will have the lowest chance for
TSRA at any terminal but could see a southwest wind shift from
showers and thunderstorms to the southwest of the terminal around
00-01z depending on how convective coverage evolves. KALS will
have the best chance for TSRA at the terminal today and have
introduced this into the TAF starting at 22z. Gusty winds up to 35
kts will be possible along with brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vis should
a stronger storm directly impact the terminal. Have kept
conditions in the VFR category for now. All activity should move
outside the influence of the terminals after 01-02z with VFR
cloudiness persisting through the evening before gradually
clearing towards Tuesday morning. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ072>075-087-088.

&&

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1102 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-091715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1102 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to occur across the region this afternoon
and evening. Although all areas will see a chance of storms, the
best coverage and heaviest rainfall is expected to occur along the
Colorado and New Mexico border, especially across the Raton Mesa
region.

Similar to the last several days, sufficient monsoon moisture is
over the region, and locally heavy rains will be possible, which
could result in flash flooding over areas with saturated soil
conditions, urban areas, or burn scars. The best chance of flash
flooding will occur across the Spring Burn scar.

The primary threat with thunderstorms today will be locally heavy
rain, wind gusts to 45 to 55 mph and cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms is expected to lessen
for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday through Sunday over the
mountains and mountain valleys, with more isolated storm activity
across the eastern plains, particularly along the I-25 Corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over much of the region, especially over the mountains
and along the Colorado and New Mexico border regions.

31/31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
855 AM MDT MON AUG 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE PUEBLO WEST       38.30N 104.75W
08/07/2022                   PUEBLO             CO   PUBLIC

            AROUND 100-FOOT WIDE CHANNEL OF FLOWING
            WATER THROUGH PROPERTIES -- AT LEAST SEVERAL
            INCHES DEEP -- CREATED BY HEAVY RAIN FROM
            THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY EVENING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
218 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNE FLORENCE          38.42N 105.10W
08/07/2022  M70 MPH          FREMONT            CO   AWOS

            DELAYED REPORT: AWOS STATION K1V6 FREMONT
            COUNTY ARPT.

&&

GH