Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Pueblo, CO

148 
WGUS75 KPUB 080218
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
818 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COC027-043-080515-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0077.000000T0000Z-220808T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Fremont CO-
818 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT AND NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES...

At 818 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain in Florence area. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches 
in 1 hour. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported flooding in the Florence area.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Florence, Penrose, Canon City and Wetmore.

This includes the following high risk locations...
	Hardscrabble Creek near County Road 389.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Life-threatening flooding of creeks, roads and normally dry arroyos 
is likely. The heavy rains will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides 
and debris flows in steep terrain, especially in and around these 
areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 10527 3848 10525 3848 10515 3853 10508
      3865 10506 3865 10495 3852 10494 3851 10494
      3838 10497 3826 10505 3824 10506 3819 10509
      3818 10530

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Cohen

228 
WGUS75 KPUB 080444
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1044 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COC027-043-080454-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0077.000000T0000Z-220808T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Fremont CO-
1044 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT AND 
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 300 AM MDT for portions of 
central Colorado, east central Colorado and southeast Colorado.

LAT...LON 3843 10527 3848 10525 3848 10515 3853 10508
      3865 10506 3865 10495 3852 10494 3851 10494
      3838 10497 3826 10505 3824 10506 3819 10509
      3818 10530

$$

Cohen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
321 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

Key Messages...

1.  Flash Flood Risk with heavy rainfall continues into the early
morning hours for southeast plains

2.  Severe thunderstorms possible southeast plains through this
evening

Set up still looks favorable for heavy rain and flash flooding
through tonight for the southeast mountains and plains with a couple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  The first round is ongoing as
heating acts on the elevated terrain and boundaries across the
southeast plains to generate thunderstorms.  While the main risk is
heavy rainfall and flash flooding, there is a severe wind and
localized severe hail risk across the plains behind the boundary
where dew points in the 50s and lower 60s are resulting in some
stout CAPE pushing 2000+ J/kg in the mixed layer according to SPC
Meso Analysis. Greatest CAPE will likely be in place along and north
of highway 50 where some marginal deep layer shear may support a
brief window for supercells during peak heating.  Elsewhere, robust
updrafts could act on pooling vorticity along boundaries to product
brief landspout tornadoes.

Second round of thunderstorms will be triggered this evening as tail
end of shortwave trough tracks through northern CO.  This will
generate another round of thunderstorms which will push off the
mountains after 6-7 PM.  This is the round likely to produce flash
flooding for the burn scars in the southeast mountains and the I-25
corridor and eventually the southeast plains as it congeals into a
thunderstorm cluster across the southeast plains.  Focus for this
activity has been shifting southward in high res models with the
most likely track across Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Bent and Kiowa
counties through the late evening and into the overnight hours.
Given this southward trend in high res models have expanded the
Flash Flood Watch to include Bent and Prowers counties and extended
the eastern portions of the watch through 3 AM.  Showers and
thunderstorms will likely continue through morning though with
lesser intensities as the MCV slowly tracks eastward under the upper
ridge.

Models show more stability across the plains for Monday with ongoing
showers Monday morning.  Most thunderstorm activity for Monday
afternoon will be focused across the mountains and Raton Mesa region
where monsoon moisture and HREF ensemble mean CAPE values still
suggest some 1000+ j/kg will be in place.  Another round of heavy
rainfall and a low end severe risk given lack of much deep layer
shear will be in place. Flash flooding will be the main concern for
burn scars, with Spring burn scar seeing the greatest risk at this
time.  Temperatures will be cooler across the plains with quite a
spread between the cooler NAM and warmer GFS.  It is possible that
the cooler NAM could play out for the eastern plains where heavy
rain falls tonight and where lingering clouds with showers keeps
things cooler.  Split the difference for now and will let later
shifts refine the details.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

Drier and warmer weather will return for Tuesday through mid week
as the upper high shifts back westward shunting the monsoon plume
to the south and west.  There will still be sufficient moisture
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms which could produce
locally heavy rainfall, especially across the southern tier. But
the heavy rain threat should be more localized with the greatest
risks to burn scars should they take an unlucky hit. Temperatures
will gradually warm through the period.

The upper high shifts back eastward for Friday bringing the
monsoon fetch back into western portions of the area. Should see
another uptick in thunderstorm coverage out west and another
increase in flash flooding risks for the mountains and burn scars.

Heavy rain risk may increase again for the southeast plains next
weekend as another front drops through the southeast plains.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

Main window for thunderstorms at the TAF sites will be 00z-06z
for KCOS and KPUB. Stronger storms will be capable of producing
MVFR to even IFR cigs/vis during the heavy rainfall with KPUB
appearing to have the greater likelihood of this occuring.
Risk for thunderstorms will decrease at KALS after 03z with
activity finally shifting east of KCOS and KPUB after 06z-08z.
There is a small window for fog and IFR cigs at KCOS and KPUB
after 12z through 17z Monday morning at both KCOS and KPUB. VFR
conditions will return for Monday with the potential for another
round of thunderstorms over the mountains which will spread off
into the adjacent valleys in the afternoon. KALS will be the most
likely TAF site to be affected by VCTS Monday afternoon.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ072>080-083-087.

Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ081-082-084>086-088-089-
093-095>098.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1105 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-081715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1105 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rain capable of causing flash flooding will be likely today,
and this heavy rain threat will last into the overnight hours. In
addition, severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening across all of the southeast plains.

The greatest flash flood threat area will be over the southern
mountains, including the Wet Mountains, the Wet Mountain Valley, all
of the Sangre De Cristo mountain region, Fremont county and Teller
county. Over the plains, the best chance of flash flooding rainfall
will occur along the entire I-25 corridor region, and over the
plains generally along and north of a line from Kim to Lamar. The
heavy rainfall threat may last through the evening for the
southeast mountains and adjacent valleys, and into the early
morning hours for the southeast plains.

The greatest severe thunderstorm threat will be over the southeast plains
generally along and north of a line from Trinidad to Springfield.
The primary threat will be strong winds to 60 to 70 mph. Localized
hail up to around 1 inch in diameter will be possible with the
isolated stronger storms. And a brief weak tornado or two cannot
be ruled out, especially along a slow moving boundary which will
progress southward across the plains this afternoon, mainly along
and north of highway 50.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Rain shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Monday. Rain,
heavy at times, is possible, with a risk of widespread flooding.
Flash flooding over area burn scars, urban corridors, and saturated
soils may occur.

The coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms is expected to lessen
for midweek. However, scattered thunderstorms will remain possible
for Tuesday through Saturday over the mountains and mountain
valleys, with more isolated storm activity across the eastern
plains, particularly along the I-25 Corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over much of the region, particularly in and near the
southeast mountains and the southeast plains.

31/31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
532 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 S WALSENBURG          37.55N 104.76W
08/07/2022  M1.75 INCH       HUERFANO           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
558 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE MCCLAVE           38.11N 102.82W
08/07/2022                   BENT               CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STRUCTURE THROWN INTO ROAD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
622 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COZ072-078>080-080045-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
622 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Custer
County through 645 PM MDT...

At 622 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of Crestone Peak, or 15 miles west of Junkins Burn
Scar, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Silver Cliff and Rosita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 10544 3816 10529 3800 10527 3797 10543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 349DEG 14KT 3807 10539

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
650 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COZ076-077-081-083-080115-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
650 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Fremont
and southern Teller Counties through 715 PM MDT...

At 650 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Royal Gorge, or 29 miles northeast of Hayden Pass Burn
Scar, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, nickel size hail and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Royal Gorge and Canon City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 10544 3866 10538 3864 10511 3838 10524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 291DEG 13KT 3857 10535

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

mw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
701 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COZ081-080145-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
701 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Teller
County through 745 PM MDT...

At 701 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Westcreek to near Florissant. Movement was
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Woodland Park and Divide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 10504 3879 10530 3882 10533 3903 10533
      3913 10522 3913 10520
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 325DEG 8KT 3907 10514 3892 10532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

mw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
726 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

COZ079-083-086-080215-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
726 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Fremont, northeastern Custer and northwestern Pueblo Counties through
815 PM MDT...

At 725 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Florence, or 12 miles north of Junkins Burn Scar, moving southeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Junkins Burn Scar, Florence, Penrose and Wetmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 10526 3843 10519 3839 10484 3811 10499
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 298DEG 9KT 3831 10512

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

mw