Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Pocatello, ID

628 
WWUS85 KPIH 090305
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
905 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

IDZ427-091200-
/O.EXP.KPIH.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220709T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0003.220709T1800Z-220710T0300Z/
Goose Creek and Raft River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls
BLM south of the Snake River-
905 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 427...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 427...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 427 Goose Creek and Raft 
  River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls BLM south of the 
  Snake River.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph between
  noon and 9 pm Saturday.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Should a fire get established, rapid fire spread 
  rates could occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly based on these criteria
for Southeastern Idaho:

- Relative humidity at or below 15 percent and wind gusts of at
  least 25 mph in the mountains, or 30 mph in the Snake Plain.

&&

$$

380 
WWUS85 KPIH 090857
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
257 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022

IDZ427-100300-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0003.220709T1800Z-220710T0300Z/
Goose Creek and Raft River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls
BLM south of the Snake River-
257 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 427 BELOW 6000 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 427 Goose Creek and Raft 
  River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls BLM south of the 
  Snake River.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Should a fire get established, rapid fire spread 
  rates could occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly based on these criteria
for Southeastern Idaho:

- Relative humidity at or below 15 percent and wind gusts of at
least 25 mph in the mountains, or 30 mph in the Snake Plain.

&&

$$

MacKay/Wyatt

003 
WWUS85 KPIH 100305
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
905 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022


IDZ427-100415-
/O.EXP.KPIH.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220710T0300Z/
Goose Creek and Raft River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls
BLM south of the Snake River-
905 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 427...

Gusty winds have decreased and humidities have improved early 
this evening, therefore the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to 
expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
405 AM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday.
Our area remains between an upper level low to our northwest and
high pressure to our east. The upper level low/trough has shifted
slightly more east, which will keep winds breezy with afternoon
wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph across the area. Expect winds slightly
higher than yesterday. Winds look to be around 4 to 8 mph below
lake wind advisory criteria for American Falls reservoir. With
very dry conditions and breezy winds up to 35 mph have issued a
red flag warning for fire weather zone 427. See fire weather
discussion below for more details. The upper level low has also
shifted slightly north as well, this will keep thunderstorms in
our northern areas, mainly Custer county and along the Montana
divide. Gusts up to around 50 mph, small hail and localized
moderate to heavy rain is likely with any thunderstorms this
afternoon. With slightly drier and windier conditions than
yesterday, expect temperatures slightly higher today.
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to low to
mid 90s for valleys and upper 70s to 80s for the mountains.
Saturday a dry, cold front will move through the area bringing
another breezy day. However, winds Saturday look 5 to 10 mph less
than today. Only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is
likely in northern Custer county Saturday.
Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.
A mostly dry shortwave trough will kick off another round of showers
and thunderstorms across southwest Montana and the Yellowstone
region for Sunday, with dry and increasingly warm temperatures
throughout all of next week. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly
cooler over Saturday in the upper 70s to low 90s, also marking the
final breezy day across southeast Idaho with wind gusts up to 25 to
40 mph. A dominant ridge of high pressure establishes itself
overhead beginning on Sunday through the early part of next week,
allowing for much warmer temperatures to advect from the south each
day. Fairly consistent afternoon highs continue for Monday that were
seen on Sunday, with temperatures warming by about 5 to 8 degrees
for Tuesday and an additional 2 to 5 degrees on Wednesday. Both
Tuesday and Wednesday are shaping up to be the warmest days of next
week as deep southwesterly flow coupled with the passage of the
upper level ridge axis overhead brings temperatures into the 90s to
low 100s across all lower elevation zones. The limiting condition
for hitting that 100 degree mark will center around cloud cover but
coupled with increasing afternoon winds out of the south each
afternoon, this should help to overcome that mechanism.

Increasing cloud cover midweek marks the arrival of monsoonal
moisture back to the Central Rocky Mountains with light
precipitation chances returning back to the forecast here in eastern
Idaho for both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Given the origin of
this moisture from the desert southwest, temperatures will remain
above normal in the upper 80s to near 100 into Thursday with a
slight cooling trend on Friday by a degree or two. The main concern
through the period will continue to center around heat and fire
weather concerns, with temperatures running 10 degrees above normal
and widespread afternoon humidities less than 15 percent. Meeting
thresholds for a Heat Advisory will likely fall Tuesday through
Thursday centered around the warmest conditions of the week.
MacKay

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday.
Our area remains between an upper level low to our northwest and
high pressure to our east. The upper level low/trough has shifted
slightly more east, which will keep winds breezy with afternoon
wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts at the TAF sites. The upper level low
has also shifted slightly more north. Thus, thunderstorm chances
have shifted more north and will stay mainly over the Montana
Divide and the Northern Central mountains. The NBM model is
showing a 9 and 10 percent chance of thunderstorms for KSUN and
KDIJ. However, there is no support for thunderstorms this
afternoon from the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM models as well as the HREF
Ensembles this afternoon. Tomorrow will be breezy again with a
weak, dry cold front moving through. Again, we are not expecting
any precipitation at any TAF sites on Saturday.
Wyatt

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon today
to 9 PM MDT this evening for Fire Weather Zone 427 below 6000 feet
for winds up to 35 mph and afternoon humidities less than 15
percent. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions will
also exist across Zones 410, 413, and 425 due to breezy winds
coupled with afternoon humidities less than 15 percent at lower
elevations. Held off on issuing a Red Flag Warning for Zone 425
given marginal humidities further south and not enough coverage
for winds above 30 mph. Above normal temperatures and breezy
afternoon winds up to 35 mph will continue through Sunday as
afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue to track further
north associated with a departing upper level low into western
Canada. Best chances for morning showers and isolated
thunderstorms today will be further north along the Montana border
as afternoon storms shift north by this afternoon. Afternoon
thunderstorms today will remain confined to Zones 411, 475, and
476 with stronger thunderstorms in southwest and central Montana.
Best chances for wetting rains will be across northern portions of
Zones 475 between 10 to 30 percent across the higher terrain.
Expecting similar areal coverage for showers and storms tomorrow,
but with lighter chances and a slight northern progression. By
early Sunday, predominant upper level ridging is established
across southeast Idaho which will help continue our trend of above
normal temperatures with minimal precipitation. Temperatures
slightly cool for Sunday as a mostly dry shortwave passes through,
helping to support one final day of breezy winds and slightly
cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to low 90s at lower
elevations.

Fairly consistent afternoon highs continue for Monday that were seen
on Sunday, with temperatures warming by about 5 to 8 degrees for
Tuesday and an additional 2 to 5 degrees on Wednesday. Both Tuesday
and Wednesday are shaping up to be the warmest days of the week next
week as deep southwesterly flow coupled with the passage of the
upper level ridge axis overhead brings temperatures into the 90s to
low 100s across all lower elevation zones. Widespread afternoon
humidities less than 15 percent continue for Monday, only expanding
in coverage and degree for Tuesday and Wednesday. Coupled with
increasing afternoon winds as soon as Tuesday, this will continue to
support critical fire weather conditions across all fire weather
zones at lower elevations. Increasing cloud cover midweek marks the
arrival of monsoonal moisture back to the Central Rocky Mountains
with light precipitation chances returning back to the forecast here
in eastern Idaho for Thursday and Friday afternoon.
MacKay/Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ427.

&&