Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Pocatello, ID

111 
WWUS85 KPIH 082025
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
225 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022


IDZ427-090300-
/O.NEW.KPIH.FW.W.0003.220709T1800Z-220710T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220709T0300Z/
Goose Creek and Raft River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls
BLM south of the Snake River-
225 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
427 BELOW 6000 FEET...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 427
BELOW 6000 FEET...

The National Weather Service in Pocatello has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 427 Goose Creek and Raft 
  River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls BLM south of the 
  Snake River.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph between
  noon and 9 pm both today and Saturday.  

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Should a fire get established, rapid fire spread 
  rates could occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly based on these criteria
for Southeastern Idaho:

- Relative humidity at or below 15 percent and wind gusts of at
least 25 mph in the mountains, or 30 mph in the Snake Plain.

&&

$$

628 
WWUS85 KPIH 090305
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
905 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

IDZ427-091200-
/O.EXP.KPIH.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220709T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0003.220709T1800Z-220710T0300Z/
Goose Creek and Raft River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls
BLM south of the Snake River-
905 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 427...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 427...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 427 Goose Creek and Raft 
  River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls BLM south of the 
  Snake River.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph between
  noon and 9 pm Saturday.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Should a fire get established, rapid fire spread 
  rates could occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly based on these criteria
for Southeastern Idaho:

- Relative humidity at or below 15 percent and wind gusts of at
  least 25 mph in the mountains, or 30 mph in the Snake Plain.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
246 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Friday)...
As expected, it's been a mostly sunny although warm afternoon
across eastern Idaho. The majority of the region is void of precip
although we are seeing some CU beginning to pop along with a few
thunderstorms in and around Stanley and Challis. This will likely
be the only portion of the forecast area with any PoPs for the
remainder of the early afternoon and into the early evening. Some
additional development to the east along the Montana Divide and
towards Island Park is possible but these probabilities are lower
than across the Central Mountains. Winds in the Snake Plain have
been slow to become south to southwest and gusty but expecting
this to happen shortly. Mild overnight lows expected with mid 50s
to lower 60s likely in the population centers, cooler in the high
country of course. Tomorrow will be very similar to today although
PoPs will be even lower across the northern extent of the area.
Areas to the south will remain dry and it'll be occasionally
breezy but should remain below any headline levels. Temperatures
will again be warm with lower to mid 90s in the valleys. McKaughan

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
General trend in the long term period is hot and dry conditions.
A weak upper level system will make flow aloft more zonal by
Sunday and provide a brief cool down Sunday and Monday. Low
elevations high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s
Saturday then again Tuesday through Thursday with many locations
possible hitting 100 degrees by Wednesday. Some models have
temperatures going well above 100 by the middle of next week but
think that may be overdone and a low chance. Think right around
the 100 mark for many low elevation sites. Other impact is how
quickly the upper level ridge providing the impetus for the hot
conditions will move east allowing for monsoonal moisture to make
into southeast Idaho and increase the chance for thunderstorms.
Most operational models now delay any thunderstorm onset until
Thursday which is a delay from yesterday. Model blend has a slight
chance of mainly mountain thudnerstorms on Thursday. Saturday and
Sunday will likely be the breeziest days with wind gusts of 20 to
25 mph as the upper level system works through Idaho. Highest
will likely be in the Snake River Plain. GK

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday.
The area remains between an upper low to the northwest and an area
of high pressure to the southeast. Expecting the winds to increase
and become gusty at times here into the mid and late afternoon but
only in the 20-25kt range at best. VCTS chances diminishing quickly
at KSUN. KDIJ could see an isolated shower nearby over the next few
hours but this also looks quite low.  Into Friday, things will be
strikingly similar to today with predominate VFR expected and
similar winds. Best moisture looks to remain along the Montana
border and over towards Challis. That being said, not expecting
any precip at any of the terminals tomorrow. McKaughan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Main impacts this afternoon and evening will be thunderstorm
activity mainly in zones 475 and 476 with gusty winds and small hail
possible with any storms.   Stronger storm could produce 50 mph wind
gusts in the Central Idaho area through the Salmon NF and Lost River
Range.   Other zones have a much lesser chance to be affected by the
storms.  Expect similar placement of thunderstorms Friday with
mainly Central Idaho and zones 475 and 476 affected but storms
should not be as strong.   Main impacts in East and south central
Idaho will be wind gusts generally in the 20 to 25 mph range Friday
through Sunday as a weak wave pushed through and will be near
critical conditions with low humidity under 15 percent expected.
Winds will likely die down Monday and an upper level ridge rebuilds
with extremely hot conditions by the middle of next week.   There is
at least a chance of an influx of monsoonal moisture late next week
with the potential of thunderstorms by Thursday. GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&