Special Marine Warning 35, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
635 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will sweep across the Mid Atlantic today
bringing the threat of severe weather to the region. High
pressure will build in on Tuesday. A weak low may cross the region
on Thursday along a warm front. High pressure will build across
the western Atlantic Friday and into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***Severe Thunderstorm Watch #229 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch
 #230 in Effect through 8 PM***

Conditions continue to trend more optimistically this afternoon,
though a line of strong thunderstorms is moving into the I-95
corridor. There has been quite a bit of hail with these
thunderstorms, but nothing quite to severe one-inch size yet.
The exception likely being a severe-warned cell in southern
Delaware. Will let the watches ride a little longer as there is
decent instability remaining, but the outflow has surged well
ahead of the main line of storms in southeastern Pennsylvania
and anvil debris from a strong cell that moved across the DC
area and onto the Eastern Shore of Maryland.

Several waves of strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the area
this afternoon into this evening. The first area associated with an
initial short wave is moving across portions of eastern Pennsylvania
this afternoon, and will continue to move to the east across the
rest of eastern Pennsylvania and portions of central and northern
New Jersey through the afternoon hours. CAPE values have increased
to 1000-2000 J/kg, while shear is around 35-45 knots.  While DCAPE
values are not overly high, less than 500 J/kg, damaging winds are
likely with any severe storm, and with freezing levels/wet-bulb zero
heights around 10,000 feet and ample CAPE above the freezing level,
severe hail will also be possible with some storms. As this activity
continues to progress eastward, another short wave/vorticity impulse
will approach the area from the west and the cold front moves into
the area and likely enhance shower and thunderstorm activity across
the southern half of the area later this afternoon into this
evening. The same is true as farther north, with CAPE values at
least 1000-2000 J/kg, while shear around 35-45 knots, and eventhough
DCAPE values are not overly high, less than 500 J/kg, damaging winds
are likely with any severe storm. Freezing levels/wet-bulb zero
heights are around 10,000 feet here as well with ample CAPE above
the freezing level, severe hail will also be possible with some
storms.

Another concern with the showers and thunderstorms will be the
potential for heavy rainfall. PW values are around 1.5 inches, and
if any storms train, a few isolated areas of flash flooding could be
possible. However, since storms will mostly be moving at a fast
enough easterly speed, widespread flash flooding is not expected.
Mainly ponding on roadways and poor drainage areas that fill in
heavy rainfall is expected.

The showers and thunderstorms are expected to move offshore by
sunset and the rest of the overnight will be dry behind the cold
front. Winds will remain a little gusty for a few hours behind the
front for some areas, but wind gusts will diminish overnight.

On Tuesday, temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly above
normal for most places. A dry forecast is expected, although some
afternoon clouds are expected across the area. Winds will become
gusty by the mid to late morning hours and continue into the
afternoon. Wind gusts could reach 20 to 30 mph for some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night, surface high pressure will approach from the
west with winds rapidly weakening as the PBL decouples. Expect
low temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area.

Surface high pressure will move overhead Wednesday with 850 MB
temperatures lowering to around 6 degrees C. This will make
Wednesday the coolest day of the work week with highs mainly in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Clouds will be increasing though as a
shortwave rapidly approaches from the west.

Wednesday night, a warm front will approach the region from the
southwest with a weak surface low forming along the baroclinic
zone. Showers will then move in from the west Wednesday night.
Overall, the track of the surface low appears to be further
north than previously forecast. Expect lows mainly in the 50s
Wednesday night/ Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Most of the overall synoptic pattern in the extended is in
rather good agreement with the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS this morning.
The below normal mid-level heights of Tuesday and Wednesday will
slowly transition to above normal by Friday/ Saturday as the
mid-level ridge amplifies over the western Atlantic. Sunday into
Monday of next week, the sub-tropical ridge will begin to break
down ushering in a break from the very warm temperatures of
Saturday. There does, however, remain substantial variability
in the details of how the evolution of the wave pattern occurs,
and the degree of amplification.

During the day Thursday, the surface warm front will lift north
across the region with showers ongoing initially. As the wave
exits the coast, a brief break in the precipitation is expected
(on the subsident side of the shortwave). However, timing of the
wave remains rather important here though, as a slower
progression would favor another round of showers and
thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon due to day time
heating. Either way, Thursday doesn't look like a complete
washout, but clouds will be rather widespread with dewpoints
rapidly climbing back towards 60 degrees.

By Friday, temperatures will start to climb with highs in the
mid 80s expected. Dewpoints will also be right back in the mid
60s. The uptick in humidity will be noticeable. On Saturday, the
amplification of the mid-level ridge will take shape with
heights rapidly rising across the region. Expect high
temperatures in the low 90s across the urban corridor. A
surface cold front will then cross the region Sunday with
temperatures falling back towards normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

A line of strong thunderstorms is moving closer to the Philly
terminals. Some small hail and wind gusts to 30 knots are
possible from the west. A brief hour of MVFR to IFR as the line
moves over then quickly returning to VFR. The line will move
offshore by 01Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...VFR. West winds 5 to 15 kts. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. Northwest winds winds 5 to 15 kts with gusts
up to 20 kts. High confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Clouds increasing from the west.
VFR initially then slowly lowering to MVFR/ IFR as showers
spread over the region. Southerly winds backing from the
southeast 5 to 10 kts. A slow recovery to VFR possible Thursday
afternoon. Moderate confidence on overall pattern, but low
confidence on where exactly the showers set up.

Friday...Mainly VFR. South winds 5 to 15 kts. Moderate
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Late this afternoon through Tonight...Occasional gusts around 25
knots will continue this afternoon into this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany
this front, which could produce winds in excess of 34 knots. Once
the thunderstorms move through the area, wind gusts will diminish
overnight.

Tuesday...Winds are expected to remain below advisory levels as an
inversion should keep winds 20 knots or less.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Sub-SCA conditions. West winds around 15 kts
gusting up to 20 kts. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Wednesday through Friday...Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Haines/Robertson
Near Term...Davis/Robertson
Short Term...Haines
Long Term...Haines
Aviation...Davis/Fitzsimmons/Franklin/Haines
Marine...Fitzsimmons/Haines/Kruzdlo/Robertson

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
628 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

DEZ001-NJZ015>019-PAZ070-071-104-106-162300-
New Castle DE-Northwestern Burlington NJ-Salem NJ-Camden NJ-
Mercer NJ-Gloucester NJ-Lower Bucks PA-Eastern Montgomery PA-
Delaware PA-Philadelphia PA-
628 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern New
Castle, northern Salem, northwestern Camden, western Mercer,
Gloucester, northwestern Burlington, southeastern Montgomery,
southeastern Bucks, Philadelphia and Delaware Counties through 700 PM
EDT...

At 627 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ivyland to Wilmington Manor. Movement was
east at 45 mph. Some of the stronger storms are producing small hail.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Philadelphia, Trenton, Camden, Wilmington, Gloucester City, Cherry
Hill, Bensalem, Mount Laurel, Ewing, Norristown, Chester,
Willingboro, Deptford, West Deptford, Glassboro, Lindenwold, East
Norriton, Pennsville, Princeton and Bellmawr.

This includes the following highways...
 New Jersey Turnpike between exits 1 and 4.
 Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 330 and 359.
 Northeast Extension between mile markers 21 and 23.
 Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 40.
 Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 7 and 23.
 Interstate 76 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 330 and 351.
 Interstate 76 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 3.
 Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 41, and
between mile markers 68 and 76.
 Interstate 676 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 1.
 Interstate 676 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 4.
 Interstate 476 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 19.
 Atlantic City Expressway near mile marker 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with some of the
storms along the line. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southern, central and northwestern New Jersey...and southeastern
Pennsylvania. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect
until 900 PM EDT for northern Delaware...and southern New Jersey.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 7513 3967 7568 4033 7516 4035 7494
      4034 7489 4035 7486 4036 7486 4038 7462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 256DEG 40KT 4024 7510 3968 7560

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Gorse

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
639 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

NJZ009-010-012-015-162315-
Hunterdon NJ-Somerset NJ-Middlesex NJ-Mercer NJ-
639 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Hunterdon, north central Mercer, Somerset and northern Middlesex
Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 639 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Skillman, or 12 miles southwest of Somerville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Somerville, Somerset, Edison, East
Brunswick, South Brunswick, Sayreville, North Brunswick, Middlesex,
Bound Brook, Manville, Flemington, Hopewell, Rocky Hill, Millstone,
Skillman, Flagtown, Colonia and Belle Mead.

This includes the following highways...
 New Jersey Turnpike between exits 10 and 12.
 Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 41 and 43.
 Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 17.
 Garden State Parkway between mile markers 123 and 134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central, northern and northwestern New Jersey.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 7478 4051 7486 4067 7441 4063 7442
      4060 7446 4061 7431 4059 7429 4059 7427
      4056 7424 4050 7426 4050 7428 4045 7424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 247DEG 31KT 4041 7471

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Gorse

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
656 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

NJZ012-013-015-162330-
Western Monmouth NJ-Middlesex NJ-Mercer NJ-
656 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Mercer,
central Monmouth and Middlesex Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 655 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Princeton, or 8 miles northeast of Trenton, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton, Perth Amboy, Old Bridge, East Brunswick, South Brunswick,
Sayreville, Marlboro, Ewing, Princeton, Matawan, Jamesburg,
Hightstown, Cranbury, Pennington, Princeton Meadows, Windsor,
Brownville, Kingston, Dayton and Plainsboro Center.

This includes the following highways...
 New Jersey Turnpike between exits 8A and 9.
 Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 62 and 71.
 Garden State Parkway between mile markers 120 and 127.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central and northern New Jersey.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 7473 4034 7479 4039 7463 4037 7461
      4041 7458 4053 7425 4050 7426 4050 7428
      4047 7427 4045 7423 4030 7419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 247DEG 39KT 4030 7465

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Gorse

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