Tornado Warning 14, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
418 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through
this evening due to the passage of a cold front. Drier and
cooler conditions are expected through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
4pm update...
Satellite and radar imagery have shown convection well underway,
with two sectors of thunderstorms playing out: the I-80 corridor
and eastern Ohio. Ample CAPE as analyzed by a 19z sounding is
driving robust hail production, with hail up to 2" in diameter
the primary threat in the early going. Damaging wind give ample
dry air aloft and modest lapse rates will be the other notable
threat, potentially usurping the hail threat later this evening
as cold pools coalesce and a bowing segment or two develop. The
tornado threat will be much lower and focus more over the I-80
corridor, likely requiring faster storm motion to the southeast
in order to get proper vorticity ingestion.

Over the next two hours, the I-80 convection is expected to
traverse east, but there is low confidence of seeing additional
southern development. The eastern Ohio convection will slide
move east southeast, relaying on ingestion of warm/moist air to
sustain its progression. In between, there may be a lack of
development, as cirrus likely hurt the cu field and there
doesn't seem to be any discernible convergence forcing there.

For the rest of the evening, despite jet support with weak
trough passage, thunderstorms will remain scattered as forcing
along the pre- frontal trough is limited. Dry air will filter in
behind this trough and very likely will shut off any additional
development, aided by residual warm air aloft. This and the
loss of diurnal heating will cause thunderstorm activity to
wane, and generally be over/out of the forecast area by
midnight/04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry, cooler air will filter into the region Friday in the wake
of the cold frontal and upper trough passage. Seasonal
temperature Friday afternoon will drop below average by Saturday
as a secondary shortwave rounding the northeast U.S trough sends
another cold front, though meager moisture should keep it void
of precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warm advection will begin Sunday, returning area temperature
toward seasonal averages with increasing cloud cover due to
moist advection aloft.

The central U.S. ridge should build east early next week,
promoting a fairly rapid return of well above normal
temperature. Shower and thunderstorm chances could return as
well depending on shortwave activity east of the ridge axis.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ceilings and vis will lower coincident with a developing line
of thunderstorms expected to reach northern ports 20z or later.
Where storms develop, they will contain heavy rain and gusty
wind, likely nwly. Timing is estimated in the TAF accordingly,
but may be tweaked as the system develops.

.Outlook...
The next chc for genl restrictions following Thurs cdfnt
passage will come with a warm front early next week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ048-057-058-
     068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ012-021.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

WVZ509>514-171830-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening. The main threat
will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Isolated tornadoes are
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ039>041-049-050-059-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-
WVZ001>004-171830-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Belmont-Mercer-
Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ012-021-171830-
Wetzel-Marion-
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening. The main threat
will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Isolated tornadoes are
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ048-057-058-068-069-171830-
Coshocton-Muskingum-Guernsey-Noble-Monroe-
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
main threat will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Isolated
tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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