Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
418 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through
this evening due to the passage of a cold front. Drier and
cooler conditions are expected through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
4pm update...
Satellite and radar imagery have shown convection well underway,
with two sectors of thunderstorms playing out: the I-80 corridor
and eastern Ohio. Ample CAPE as analyzed by a 19z sounding is
driving robust hail production, with hail up to 2" in diameter
the primary threat in the early going. Damaging wind give ample
dry air aloft and modest lapse rates will be the other notable
threat, potentially usurping the hail threat later this evening
as cold pools coalesce and a bowing segment or two develop. The
tornado threat will be much lower and focus more over the I-80
corridor, likely requiring faster storm motion to the southeast
in order to get proper vorticity ingestion.

Over the next two hours, the I-80 convection is expected to
traverse east, but there is low confidence of seeing additional
southern development. The eastern Ohio convection will slide
move east southeast, relaying on ingestion of warm/moist air to
sustain its progression. In between, there may be a lack of
development, as cirrus likely hurt the cu field and there
doesn't seem to be any discernible convergence forcing there.

For the rest of the evening, despite jet support with weak
trough passage, thunderstorms will remain scattered as forcing
along the pre- frontal trough is limited. Dry air will filter in
behind this trough and very likely will shut off any additional
development, aided by residual warm air aloft. This and the
loss of diurnal heating will cause thunderstorm activity to
wane, and generally be over/out of the forecast area by
midnight/04z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry, cooler air will filter into the region Friday in the wake
of the cold frontal and upper trough passage. Seasonal
temperature Friday afternoon will drop below average by Saturday
as a secondary shortwave rounding the northeast U.S trough sends
another cold front, though meager moisture should keep it void
of precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warm advection will begin Sunday, returning area temperature
toward seasonal averages with increasing cloud cover due to
moist advection aloft.

The central U.S. ridge should build east early next week,
promoting a fairly rapid return of well above normal
temperature. Shower and thunderstorm chances could return as
well depending on shortwave activity east of the ridge axis.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ceilings and vis will lower coincident with a developing line
of thunderstorms expected to reach northern ports 20z or later.
Where storms develop, they will contain heavy rain and gusty
wind, likely nwly. Timing is estimated in the TAF accordingly,
but may be tweaked as the system develops.

.Outlook...
The next chc for genl restrictions following Thurs cdfnt
passage will come with a warm front early next week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ048-057-058-
     068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ012-021.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

WVZ509>514-171830-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening. The main threat
will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Isolated tornadoes are
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ039>041-049-050-059-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-
WVZ001>004-171830-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Belmont-Mercer-
Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ012-021-171830-
Wetzel-Marion-
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening. The main threat
will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Isolated tornadoes are
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ048-057-058-068-069-171830-
Coshocton-Muskingum-Guernsey-Noble-Monroe-
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
main threat will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Isolated
tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
554 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLINTONVILLE            41.20N  79.88W
06/16/2022                   VENANGO            PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT CLINTONVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202447

CJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     HAIL             1 SE TRANSFER           41.32N  80.42W
06/16/2022  M1.50 INCH       MERCER             PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202448

CJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
609 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             BARNESVILLE             39.99N  81.17W
06/16/2022  E1.00 INCH       BELMONT            OH   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202449

CJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMBRIDGE               40.09N  81.64W
06/16/2022                   GUERNSEY           OH   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON MT HERMON ROAD AND BEEHAM RUN ROAD BOTH
            NEAR CAMBRIDGE VIA COUNTY DISPATCH

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PUNXSUTAWNEY            40.94N  78.99W
06/16/2022                   JEFFERSON          PA   PUBLIC

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN VIA COUNTY DISPATCH

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARNESVILLE             40.06N  81.22W
06/16/2022                   BELMONT            OH   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON OLD NATIONAL ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202450
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202451
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202452

KRAMAR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
622 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

OHZ057-058-068-162300-
Guernsey OH-Noble OH-Muskingum OH-
622 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GUERNSEY...MUSKINGUM
AND CENTRAL NOBLE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 621 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles north of Somerset to near Byesville.
Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Zanesville, Cambridge, Caldwell, New Concord, South Zanesville, North
Zanesville, Philo, Pleasant Grove, Pleasant City, Cumberland,
Summerfield, and Belle Valley.

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Ohio near mile marker 143, and between mile
  markers 145 and 177.
  Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 26 and 39, and between
  mile markers 48 and 51.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
east central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 8223 3995 8220 4005 8219 4010 8151
      3999 8162 3983 8133 3974 8133 3977 8207
      3982 8208 3982 8217 3991 8216 3991 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 314DEG 36KT 3993 8227 3997 8147

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH