Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
736 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, humid conditions can be expected through midweek with
increasing thunderstorm chances Wednesday into Thursday. There
may be rising threat for severe weather each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers will generally taper off this morning as the environment
stabilizes behind the exit of the overnight MCS. However,
residual vort advection/jet ascent in remnant NW flow aloft may
promote new, elevated thunderstorm development along a broad
NW- to-SE line from eastern OH to northern WV through the early
afternoon, per latest hi-res guidance. The lack of sfc based
instability and waning shear should mitigate any additional
severe threat. The focus, then, will be monitoring rainfall
rates that could cause localized flooding for locations already
impacted by the previous to MCSs that dropped up to 2" of rain.

Subsidence as the upper ridge edges east will create dry
conditions by this afternoon and erode area cloud cover. The
degree of clearing will dictate afternoon temperature, with
trend likely that convective blow off will linger around long
enough to keep most locations within a few degrees of seasonal
average. The area to watch will be the far western Ohio zones
where clearing should occur first (and their closer proximity to
the hot, humid air mass). If clearing and heating occurs
quicker, there is potential that a few zones see heat indices
rise near to above Heat Advisory criteria. Added mention to HWO
to note potential need if confidence increases of this
occurring.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Hot and humid conditions will develop areawide Wednesday as the
upper ridge axis creeps over head of eastern Ohio. Heat indices
should rise to 100F+ for a majority of the forecast area, which
may warrant the need for Heat Advisories and/or warnings. The
one limiting factor to its development is the potential for
isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms and their associated
cloud cover slowing/limiting maximization of heating.

The lack of jet support or any notable surface boundary means
that convective initiation is not a given despite a very
unstable environment Wednesday (CAPE likely exceeding 3000
J/kg). But if storms can initiate (maybe due to weak convergence
over the Laurel Highlands with subsequent outflow collisions or
enough of a shortwave rounding the eastern side of the ridge),
the environment will be supportive of isolated large hail and
damaging wind from downbursts. The aforementioned CAPE plus lots
of dry air aloft will drive that threat, though the lack of
shear to promote updraft organization may also limit the threat.

Thursday will remain hot and humid but a series of shortwaves
rounding the base of an upper level low over south central
Canada will flatten the ridge and draw a surface cold front
toward the region. The likely presence of weak vortices in this
zonal flow plus the hot, humid environment will create greater
potential for thunderstorm development that will include the
risk for severe weather. Uncertainty remains on the most likely
period for thunderstorm/severe threat (whether with an aftn
shortwave or the evening/overnight cold front), but the base
ingredients appear to be there for a widespread severe weather
threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Remnant showers and thunderstorms will dissipate through the
morning Friday as the surface cold front and the most pronounced
upper trough complete their passage. Dry, cooler air will settle
in by the afternoon Friday to return area temperature near
seasonal averages.

The upper trough will deepen over the northeast U.S. heading
into the weekend, which will send a secondary cold front through
the area late Friday into Saturday morning. This front will
likely be dry and void of precipitation, mainly acting to
drop area temperature below normal. Dry and seasonably cool
weather should occur the rest of the weekend with building high
pressure and dry NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms through the middle
of the day may impact the ZZV, HLG, and MGW terminals.
Otherwise, expect slowly improving flight conditions through the
day with IFR/MVFR lingering through 18Z in most cases. By 21Z
most terminals should be VFR clearing out from the morning
convection. Expect light winds outside of thunderstorms.

.Outlook...
Rain and restriction are again likely for late Wednesday and
Thursday with the approach and passage of a cdfnt.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
649 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

OHZ039>041-049-050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-WVZ001-002-151100-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Mercer-Venango-
Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-
649 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hot and humid weather is expected through Thursday, with the
potential need for heat advisories and/or warnings Wednesday.

In addition, there is a marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday
associated with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. An incoming cold
will bring more widespread thunderstorm potential Thursday
evening, including a slight risk for severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ059-069-PAZ029-031-073>076-WVZ003-004-012-021-509>514-151100-
Belmont-Monroe-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
649 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hot and humid weather is expected through Thursday, with the
potential need for heat advisories and/or warnings Wednesday.

In addition, there is a marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday
associated with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. An incoming cold
will bring more widespread thunderstorm potential Thursday
evening, including a slight risk for severe weather.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ048-057-058-068-151100-
Coshocton-Muskingum-Guernsey-Noble-
649 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hot and humid conditions are likely this afternoon with a clearing
sky, allowing heat indices to approach 100 degrees. If confidence
increases in greater than expected warming causing prolonged heat
index values above 100, then a short-fused heat advisory may be
needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hot and humid weather is expected through Thursday, with the
potential need for heat advisories and/or warnings Wednesday.

In addition, there is a marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday
associated with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. An incoming cold
will bring more widespread thunderstorm potential Thursday
evening, including a slight risk for severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
758 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NORWICH                 39.98N  81.79W
06/14/2022                   MUSKINGUM          OH   SOCIAL MEDIA

            REPORT OF POWER OUTAGES IN NORWICH.

1258 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HOPEDALE                40.32N  80.90W
06/14/2022                   HARRISON           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN.

0107 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BRIDGEPORT              40.06N  80.75W
06/14/2022                   BELMONT            OH   SOCIAL MEDIA

            REPORT OF MANY TREES CUT IN HALF AND ITEMS BLOWN AWAY.
            TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0134 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N POINT LOOKOUT       40.13N  80.26W
06/14/2022                   WASHINGTON         PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            COVE ROAD BLOCKED DUE TO DOWNED TREE LANDING ON ROAD
            AND POWER LINES. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202390
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202391
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202392
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202393

JF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
858 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE MAURER TRAILER PAR 40.38N  81.35W
06/14/2022                   TUSCARAWAS         OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTING NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO HOMES IN
            THE DENNISON AREA.

1235 AM     TSTM WND DMG     STILLWATER              40.32N  81.32W
06/14/2022                   TUSCARAWAS         OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE IN THE REGION.

1238 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE TIPPECANOE        40.29N  81.28W
06/14/2022                   HARRISON           OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE 800 NORTHBOUND CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES
            ON ROADWAY. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

1253 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JEWETT                  40.37N  81.00W
06/14/2022                   HARRISON           OH   UTILITY COMPANY

            WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES REPORTED DUE TO DOWNED TREES
            AND POWER LINES IN COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

0103 AM     TSTM WND DMG     STEWARTSVILLE           40.01N  80.87W
06/14/2022                   BELMONT            OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE 149 CLOSED DUE TO DEBRIS AND DOWNED TREES
            ON ROADWAY. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0111 AM     TSTM WND DMG     AMSTERDAM               40.47N  80.92W
06/14/2022                   JEFFERSON          OH   UTILITY COMPANY

            LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER
            LINES. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0355 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N KEENE               40.38N  81.87W
06/14/2022                   COSHOCTON          OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE 83 SOUTHBOUND CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES ON
            ROADWAY. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0426 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ZANESVILLE              39.95N  82.01W
06/14/2022                   MUSKINGUM          OH   SOCIAL MEDIA

            REPORT OF POWER OUTAGES AND TREES DOWN WITH SECOND LINE
            OF STORMS. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202394
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202395
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202396
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202397
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202398
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202399
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202400
EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202401

JF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
911 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

OHZ069-PAZ031-WVZ004-012-021-141415-
Monroe OH-Greene PA-Marshall WV-Marion WV-Wetzel WV-
911 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MONROE...
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE...WETZEL...MARSHALL AND NORTHWESTERN MARION
COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM EDT...

At 911 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Powhatan Point, or 7 miles northeast of New
Martinsville, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Martinsville, Pine Grove, Hundred, Jacksonburg, Clarington,
Smithfield, Wileyville, Grove Oak, Proctor, Woodlands, Big Run, and
Reader.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3947 8065 3946 8067 3948 8067 3947 8069
      3947 8071 3951 8074 3954 8078 3955 8078
      3956 8081 3956 8082 3960 8085 3959 8088
      3978 8091 3991 8068 3965 8040 3964 8040
      3963 8037 3959 8033 3946 8063
TIME...MOT...LOC 1311Z 334DEG 28KT 3976 8079

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

87

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
924 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 AM     TSTM WND DMG     QUAKER CITY             39.97N  81.30W
06/14/2022                   GUERNSEY           OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON STATE ROUTE 513 IN QUAKER CITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ2202402

DJS