Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
905 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, humid conditions and periodic thunderstorms can be
expected through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overall forecast trend is on track - no appreciable changes
needed for the late eve update.

Previous...
Tonight, under northwest flow, a mesoscale convective system is
poised to sweep out of the Great Lakes Region. This system is
expected to bring very heavy rain and fairly widespread damaging
gusts to the Upr OH Region in the predawn hours of Tuesday.

The overnight period is thus SPC-highlighted with a slight, to
enhanced risk of severe weather given deep layer shear via nw
flow and cold pool formation within the MCS. The primary threat
is thus of damaging wind despite a stabilizing boundary layer.
The NW flow and propagation vectors favor east central OH and
across the WV Panhandle for the primary target axis. Multiple
convective impulses may support local flash flooding as well for
urban and flood prone areas - rapid movement should limit
widespread flood potential though.

In the wake of the MCS, a building high pres ridge will drive
temperature about 10 degrees above the averages on Tuesday.
This combined with the high humidity will drive heat indices
toward the 100 mark, especially over East Central Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Heat advisories and/or warnings look likely needed Wednesday as
the mentioned ridge builds further and heat index values rise
to 100F+ across the majority of the forecast area. Advisory
levels will again be possible Thursday across southern zones as
well.

In addition to the heat, another shortwave will move into the
the lower Great Lakes region as a warm front extends into the
forecast area for Wednesday afternoon. With the heat and
unstable conditions, this could initiate a few showers and
thunderstorms as well. Depending on the coverage here, this
could disrupt the heat index values as well.

By Thursday and into Thursday night a strong shortwave looks to
finally weaken the ridge as it ushers a cold front into the
forecast area. While some very warm temperatures are likely for
the Thursday as well, the onset of a cold front into the
forecast area could lead to some severe storms again into
Thursday night. Due to this, the SPC has put the Upper OH Valley
in an outlook for severe weather. This corresponds to the break
down of the ridge as the breakdown of the ridge is also a
period to watch for as this usually leads to unsettled weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front passing through will lead to cooler temps for
Friday and into the coming weekend. High pressure will move in
behind the front for the weekend as well leading to some quieter
weather. As well, the upper level pattern will shift with a
ridge building in the west once again leaving the PBZ forecast
area in between a deep trough off to the east and ridging in the
west. The rest of the forecast period looks to be seasonal and
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An advancing mesoscale convective system will degrade conditions
rapidly after 06z. Expect IFR in +ra and potential wind gusts of
40 to 50 kts. Rapid improvement can be expected after daybreak
on Tuesday via building high pres.

.Outlook...
Rain and restriction are again likely for late Wednesday and
Thursday with the approach and passage of a cdfnt.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1005 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>514-150215-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1005 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Pennsylvania, and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight into Tuesday morning.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot and humid weather is expected through mid week. Heat advisories
and/or warnings may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-150215-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-
1005 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot and humid weather is expected through mid week. Heat advisories
and/or warnings may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.