Tornado Warning 6, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1136 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

Severe and hydro threats will continue tonight into Monday morning.
The latest model guidance depicts convection blossoming across the
CWA as the surface warm front begins to lift to the north along with
a robust LLJ. This will promote areas of training convection with a
risk of flash flooding. Latest CAM guidance are really hitting
southeast MO into southwest IL with the potential for 2-3" of rain
tonight, with a broader area of 1-2" along and north of the Ohio
River. Decided to issue a new Flood Watch through 15z Monday to
cover this risk. Across the current Flood Watch in west KY,
confidence is lower that additional widespread rains will occur
after the expiration time of 03z, so decided to let it continue as
is for now. It may be extended later this evening based on radar
and model trends.

The main concern for severe weather areawide will be late tonight
through Monday morning, roughly form 03z to 12z Monday. This will be
in the form of a strongly forced QLCS ahead of a surface cold front.
With a strong LLJ in place to assist in elongating hodographs and
ample 0 to 3 km CAPE, there is a concern for mesovortex development
within this line with a damaging wind and brief spin up tornado
risk. The current SPC enhanced and slight risks across our CWA
covers the risk well. The severe risk will wind down quickly after
12z Monday as the line of convection exits the area. It will turn
much colder with some partial clearing skies in the wake of the
cold front's passage.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

General high pressure at the surface, under west-southwesterly flow
aloft, will keep us under rain-free conditions through most of the
week, as temps progressively moderate with time.

The only possible exception to this will be the result of shortwave
energy in the flow aloft just to our south Tue night. This impulse
will tend to draw moist air up over the dome of high pressure at the
surface as a weak inverted surface trof impinges on it. Some model
indications were that measurable pcpn, mostly rain, will occur in
the southern Pennyrile region of KY. Other models suggested just
lots of cloudiness and perhaps just an interval of sprinkles there
and a little farther west. The NBM consensus suggested that there
will be at least a slight chance of measurable pcpn roughly along
the OH River and the lower half of southeastern MO, possibly ending
with some snowflakes in the air near daybreak. This was kept in the
forecast, but downplayed slightly. No impacts are anticipated.

The medium range models showed a significant airmass change will
occur early Fri, as much colder Canadian air begins to flow into our
region from the northwest. Moisture return ahead of the arctic front
will not be robust, so despite large scale lifting, there should be
a delay of pcpn until later on Tue. Of course, there are slight
timing differences amongst the models in this time frame. For this
forecast, we will go with Fri afternoon as the time frame of the
highest PoP for mainly rain, though there will be a slight chance of
rain/snow earlier in the northwestern/western tier of counties.

Most model solutions depict a rapid end to the pcpn from west to
east Fri evening. The blast of arctic air will result in a
changeover to snowfall for a least a couple of hours over the
region, except perhaps for westernmost parts of southeastern MO,
before ending mostly by midnight. Less than an inch of snowfall is
forecast at this time for this fast-moving system. The deep freeze
should last at least through the weekend, with lows in the teens and
20s, and highs in the 30s to near 40 on Sat, possibly rebounding
some by the end of the day Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

The main challenge with the introduction of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities to IFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities is the
timing and evolution of the convective line overnight. Attempted
to provide some initial VFR ceilings associated with the warm
sector zone ahead of the cold front, with the exception of KMVN.

Kept lower IFR ceilings in the post frontal cloud deck for most
TAF sites until later in the afternoon on Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until 9 AM CST Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flood Watch until 9 AM CST Monday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
     114.

IN...Flood Watch until 9 AM CST Monday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch until 9 AM CST Monday for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...DWS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...Smith

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service PADUCAH KY
124 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2022

ILZ078-083-086-087-090-091-094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-
071000-
Wabash-White-Saline-Gallatin-Pope-Hardin-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-
Vanderburgh-Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-
McCracken-Graves-Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-
Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-
Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd-
Including the cities of Mount Carmel, Carmi, Harrisburg,
Shawneetown, Golconda, Elizabethtown, Metropolis, Fort Branch,
Petersburg, Poseyville, Evansville, Boonville, Rockport, Hickman,
Clinton, Bardwell, Wickliffe, Paducah, Mayfield, Smithland,
Benton, Murray, Marion, Eddyville, Cadiz, Princeton, Morganfield,
Dixon, Madisonville, Hopkinsville, Henderson, Owensboro, Calhoun,
Greenville, and Elkton
124 AM CST Mon Mar 7 2022

...Wind Gusts of 30 to locally 50 mph possible ahead of line of
showers and thunderstorms overnight...

Wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph, and possibly as high as 50 to 55 mph,
will be possible ahead of the line of showers and thunderstorms
that were moving across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

These higher wind gusts will be generally out of the south and
could persist between one to three hours well ahead of the line of
showers and thunderstorms. The most likely area expected to be
impacted by these stronger winds overnight will be west Kentucky,
extreme southeast Illinois, and eastern sections of southwest
Indiana.

These gusty winds will toss around loose outdoor objects and may
cause small tree limbs to break off or topple some trees weakened
by the moist ground from heavy rain.

Travelers on east and west oriented roadways may also encounter
difficulty controlling their vehicles due to the gusty winds.

These gusty winds will remain possible through at 4 am CST, ahead
of the line of showers and thunderstorms.

Smith

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
126 AM CST MON MAR 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW RALEIGH           37.82N 88.55W
03/07/2022  M56 MPH          SALINE             IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KHSB HARRISBURG IL.

&&

K. SMITH