Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
635 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

The primary cold front was working its way through central
Missouri this afternoon. This front will make its way southeast
into southeast Missouri and the lower Ohio Valley tonight.
Ahead of the front, isolated showers and thunderstorms have
formed along outflow boundaries left over from this morning's
storms.

Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid level anticyclone over
Missouri this afternoon. This mid level high has probably
suppressed convection so far today. The most recent run of the
hrrr is several hours slower with convective development than the
12z run. There is also less coverage of storms overall in the
hrrr. Based on all of this, pops will be held down in the chance
category for most areas. The Pennyrile area of west Kentucky and
southwest Indiana are still pegged by the nbm and href for the
highest qpf and pops. Will maintain likely pops there, with
locally around an inch of qpf. Deep-layer unidirectional winds
from 20 to 30 kt will favor some linear structures if organized
convection develops.

The lack of convection so far has allowed heat indices to climb
above 100 in most places. The Excessive Heat Warning will be
allowed to continue as long as this remains the case.

The cold front is forecast to become diffuse before it exits
western Kentucky early Saturday morning. Low level winds will
become nearly calm. Conditions will be favorable for stratus
clouds as the low levels remain very moist, especially where
heavy rain occurs.

The push of cooler and drier air will be very slow to develop on
Saturday. It appears widespread low clouds will persist for a
good part of the day. Dew points will likely remain above 70, but
the effects of widespread clouds and north winds will make it feel
noticeably cooler. Highs will be in the 80s. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will persist behind the front, caused by a
sharp 850 mb trough lagging across the lower Ohio Valley.

Clearing skies are forecast Saturday night, followed by a sunny
and less humid Sunday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with
dew points in the lower 60s. A light northeast breeze will
circulate the drier air around a surface high over the Great
Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

Temperatures and dew points will be on the rise Monday into Tuesday
ahead of an approaching cold front.  Southerly flow across the
region will push dew points into the middle to upper 60s Monday and
Monday night, and into the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday.  High
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be mostly in the 90 to 95
degree range, though portions of southeast Missouri could reach the
upper 90s Tuesday.

As for the cold front, models bring the front slowly through the PAH
forecast area through the day Tuesday, then hang it up just south of
our region Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Latest individual models
overall produce very little in the way of precipitation, widely
scattered at best, and the NBM mainly produces measurable rain
across our southeast counties Tuesday night and Wednesday post
frontal.  Though could see some small PoPs being reintroduced to our
north and west counties, for now we will just go with slight to low
chances PoPs for showers and isolated thunderstorms across mainly
portions of west Kentucky.

More importantly, temperatures behind the cold front will drop back
to near seasonable readings in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees,
with overnight lows a bit below normal in the middle to upper 60s.
Northerly winds will bring dew points down into more pleasant
readings in the lower to middle 60s. |

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

A cluster of thunderstorms will propagate south and east across
the region this evening into the early overnight. The most robust
activity will likely move through by 04-05z, but may see -TSRA
linger into the overnight especially in the EVV Tri State region.
There likely will be periods of IFR conditions and gusty winds
associated with the stronger convection. VCSH will continue to be
possible overnight into the day on Saturday, although chances at
any one terminal is low.

As winds become light amidst very moist low level air in place, a
low stratus deck is likely to develop overnight into the morning.
Guidance suggests at least lower MVFR cigs, but potentially IFR
for some terminals. This stratus deck appears to be slow to lift
and scatter out on Saturday, taking much of the day to do so. NNE
winds behind the front will increase to 8-12 kts by afternoon, and
could see a few gusts of 15-18 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ080-
     081-084>094.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>015.

&&

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP

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