Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
635 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

The primary cold front was working its way through central
Missouri this afternoon. This front will make its way southeast
into southeast Missouri and the lower Ohio Valley tonight.
Ahead of the front, isolated showers and thunderstorms have
formed along outflow boundaries left over from this morning's
storms.

Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid level anticyclone over
Missouri this afternoon. This mid level high has probably
suppressed convection so far today. The most recent run of the
hrrr is several hours slower with convective development than the
12z run. There is also less coverage of storms overall in the
hrrr. Based on all of this, pops will be held down in the chance
category for most areas. The Pennyrile area of west Kentucky and
southwest Indiana are still pegged by the nbm and href for the
highest qpf and pops. Will maintain likely pops there, with
locally around an inch of qpf. Deep-layer unidirectional winds
from 20 to 30 kt will favor some linear structures if organized
convection develops.

The lack of convection so far has allowed heat indices to climb
above 100 in most places. The Excessive Heat Warning will be
allowed to continue as long as this remains the case.

The cold front is forecast to become diffuse before it exits
western Kentucky early Saturday morning. Low level winds will
become nearly calm. Conditions will be favorable for stratus
clouds as the low levels remain very moist, especially where
heavy rain occurs.

The push of cooler and drier air will be very slow to develop on
Saturday. It appears widespread low clouds will persist for a
good part of the day. Dew points will likely remain above 70, but
the effects of widespread clouds and north winds will make it feel
noticeably cooler. Highs will be in the 80s. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will persist behind the front, caused by a
sharp 850 mb trough lagging across the lower Ohio Valley.

Clearing skies are forecast Saturday night, followed by a sunny
and less humid Sunday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with
dew points in the lower 60s. A light northeast breeze will
circulate the drier air around a surface high over the Great
Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

Temperatures and dew points will be on the rise Monday into Tuesday
ahead of an approaching cold front.  Southerly flow across the
region will push dew points into the middle to upper 60s Monday and
Monday night, and into the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday.  High
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be mostly in the 90 to 95
degree range, though portions of southeast Missouri could reach the
upper 90s Tuesday.

As for the cold front, models bring the front slowly through the PAH
forecast area through the day Tuesday, then hang it up just south of
our region Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Latest individual models
overall produce very little in the way of precipitation, widely
scattered at best, and the NBM mainly produces measurable rain
across our southeast counties Tuesday night and Wednesday post
frontal.  Though could see some small PoPs being reintroduced to our
north and west counties, for now we will just go with slight to low
chances PoPs for showers and isolated thunderstorms across mainly
portions of west Kentucky.

More importantly, temperatures behind the cold front will drop back
to near seasonable readings in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees,
with overnight lows a bit below normal in the middle to upper 60s.
Northerly winds will bring dew points down into more pleasant
readings in the lower to middle 60s. |

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

A cluster of thunderstorms will propagate south and east across
the region this evening into the early overnight. The most robust
activity will likely move through by 04-05z, but may see -TSRA
linger into the overnight especially in the EVV Tri State region.
There likely will be periods of IFR conditions and gusty winds
associated with the stronger convection. VCSH will continue to be
possible overnight into the day on Saturday, although chances at
any one terminal is low.

As winds become light amidst very moist low level air in place, a
low stratus deck is likely to develop overnight into the morning.
Guidance suggests at least lower MVFR cigs, but potentially IFR
for some terminals. This stratus deck appears to be slow to lift
and scatter out on Saturday, taking much of the day to do so. NNE
winds behind the front will increase to 8-12 kts by afternoon, and
could see a few gusts of 15-18 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ080-
     081-084>094.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>015.

&&

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
313 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-092015-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
313 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The Excessive Heat Warning continues into early this evening for
southeast Missouri, much of southern Illinois south of the
Interstate 64 corridor, and most of west Kentucky. Isolated
thunderstorms will provide local relief from the heat.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous
through this evening as a cold front approaches. A few storms may
become severe, with isolated wind damage and large hail. The
strongest storms will contain torrential downpours and continuous
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A few isolated thunderstorms may linger Saturday, mainly in
western Kentucky. A few thunderstorms are possible across
portions of west Kentucky late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Severe
storms are not expected during these time periods.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this evening.

MY/RST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
548 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

ILZ084-MOZ076-082330-
Jackson IL-Perry MO-
548 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Jackson and
central Perry Counties through 630 PM CDT...

At 547 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chester, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Murphysboro.

This includes Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 134 and 139.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

If on or near the Mississippi River, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 8980 3785 8979 3785 8974 3780 8968
      3780 8967 3782 8968 3783 8966 3786 8966
      3784 8963 3782 8923 3759 8947 3779 9002
      3782 9000 3787 8994 3787 8990 3791 8985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 293DEG 37KT 3790 8985

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SMITH

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