Wind Advisory 17, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

An active weather day is expected Tuesday. Moisture will spread
into the area ahead of a dryline. The dryline will separate two
potentially significant weather regimes, fire in the west and
severe storm potential in the east.

The wildfire concerns are going to be significant in western
Oklahoma west of the dryline with strong winds, very low humidity
and hot temperatures. This will be a particularly dangerous
wildfire situation with the potential of rapid fire spread and
the difficulty in fire fighting. The RFTI (Red Flag Threat Index)
reaches extreme levels in areas roughly west of a line from Alva
to Clinton to Hobart to Vernon. And anywhere west of the dryline
will have at least elevated if not critical conditions.

East of the dryline, the severe weather potential is much more
conditional. The airmass east of the dryline will become quite
unstable, but we will also fighting a capping inversion and
potentially some subsidence during the afternoon. So we do not
expect any development before 20-21Z at the earliest. And this cap
and subsidence may potentially suppress thunderstorm development
until the front moves through later in the night. But if we get a
storm (or a few storms) to develop near the dryline, the airmass
will be quite conducive to severe thunderstorms. But this is a
conditional risk. Have kept POPs fairly low initially (20 to 30
percent) given the lack of significant synoptic scale forcing
interacting with the dryline, and have kept an area of POPs less
than 20 percent but with isolated thunderstorms listed in the
weather grids. There will be somewhat higher chances southeast
with closer to the shortwave moving through north Texas.

Will not upgrade the High Wind Watch in northwest Oklahoma to the
a warning with this package, but that will be something that we
will be monitoring overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

For Tuesday evening (mainly through 9 pm) will keep a slight chance
of thunderstorms in the forecast along and east of Interstate
35.  Although storm coverage (if any) will be isolated/widely
scattered, storms will have the potential to produce mainly
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma around 3-6Z Wednesday.
A rather tight thermal gradient should result in wind gusts to
at least 40 mph for a few hours after frontal passage.  A little
unsure how for south and east these winds will occur as the front
moves south overnight. However, the wind shift and strong winds
will certainly be concerning, if large wildfires develop Tuesday
afternoon/early evening.

As the front encounters better moisture, a narrow band of showers
and thunderstorms may develop across central and southern Oklahoma
during the overnight/early Wednesday.  Much drier air will overspread
the western two-thirds of Oklahoma and northern Texas by mid to late
morning Wednesday.

Although the surface pressure gradient may relax Wednesday
afternoon, deep mixing will result in gusty west to northwest winds.
Very dry afternoon humidity will result in at least critical fire
weather conditions, especially along and west of a Cherokee to
Wichita Falls line.  A fire weather watch will be issue for this
area (Wednesday afternoon).

Surface winds will diminish quickly Wednesday evening.  With a very
dry air mass in place, temperatures will cool rather quickly.  A
freeze is possible for at least parts of western and northern
Oklahoma.  With light winds, even sheltered parts of central and
southern Oklahoma may approach freezing by early Thursday morning.

The wind will remain light Thursday morning but will shift to the
south and increase across western Oklahoma during the afternoon.
This may elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours Thursday
afternoon.

A westerly flow aloft is expected Friday into the late weekend,
before a trough moves across the northern Rockies and northern
Plains. This system may push some rather cool/cold air into the
southern Plains late weekend into early next week.

Moisture return into south central and eastern Oklahoma Friday into
early Saturday may result in showers and storms but confidence in
this scenario is not high. By Saturday afternoon/evening, a few
models have a warm front draped across northern Texas with an
approaching disturbance from the west. This may result in showers
and thunderstorms with severe storms possible. Other models have
this boundary farther south with a reduced risk of severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Will continue with MVFR stratus spreading northward over most
terminals next few hours and persisting through daybreak. Some fog
cannot be ruled out, but with increasing winds and some mixing, we
will keep the message of restrictions as MVFR cigs. LLWS will also
be evident through at least 12Z across the region with strong low
level jet in place. Convective chances at any one point appears
fairly low for tomorrow, so not mention of TSRA with this
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  86  53  67 /   0  10  20   0
Hobart OK         54  92  50  70 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  60  92  58  76 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           53  91  41  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     51  87  48  62 /   0  10  40  10
Durant OK         63  82  62  79 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021-033-034.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>089.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1039 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-130345-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1039 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Fire Weather...
Extreme fire weather conditions are expected on Tuesday across
western Oklahoma and western north Texas due to very strong winds,
extremely low humidities, and hot temperatures. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect. All outdoor burning, and other activities
that could lead to fire starts, should be avoided.

Fire weather concerns will continue on Wednesday with gusty
northwest winds and very dry air across western Oklahoma.

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk of severe storms Tuesday afternoon and
evening east of a line from Blackwell to Yukon to Duncan Oklahoma
to Henrietta Texas. To the west of the Enhanced Risk, there is
also a Slight Risk of severe storms east of a line from Wakita to
Lahoma to Lawton Oklahoma to Wichita Falls and Archer City Texas.
Thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of a dryline mid to
late afternoon. There will be a capping inversion in place that
will act against thunderstorm development, so there is some
potential that storms may not develop. However, if storms do
develop, the atmosphere will be conducive to severe
thunderstorms, including baseball size hail, thunderstorm wind
gusts of 60 to 80 mph, and isolated tornadoes.

.Strong Wind...
Southwest winds may gust between 50 and 60 mph on Tuesday across
far western and northwest Oklahoma. A High Wind Watch is in effect
for Tuesday afternoon.

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