Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
612 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

An active weather day is expected Tuesday. Moisture will spread
into the area ahead of a dryline. The dryline will separate two
potentially significant weather regimes, fire in the west and
severe storm potential in the east.

The wildfire concerns are going to be significant in western
Oklahoma west of the dryline with strong winds, very low humidity
and hot temperatures. This will be a particularly dangerous
wildfire situation with the potential of rapid fire spread and
the difficulty in fire fighting. The RFTI (Red Flag Threat Index)
reaches extreme levels in areas roughly west of a line from Alva
to Clinton to Hobart to Vernon. And anywhere west of the dryline
will have at least elevated if not critical conditions.

East of the dryline, the severe weather potential is much more
conditional. The airmass east of the dryline will become quite
unstable, but we will also fighting a capping inversion and
potentially some subsidence during the afternoon. So we do not
expect any development before 20-21Z at the earliest. And this cap
and subsidence may potentially suppress thunderstorm development
until the front moves through later in the night. But if we get a
storm (or a few storms) to develop near the dryline, the airmass
will be quite conducive to severe thunderstorms. But this is a
conditional risk. Have kept POPs fairly low initially (20 to 30
percent) given the lack of significant synoptic scale forcing
interacting with the dryline, and have kept an area of POPs less
than 20 percent but with isolated thunderstorms listed in the
weather grids. There will be somewhat higher chances southeast
with closer to the shortwave moving through north Texas.

Will not upgrade the High Wind Watch in northwest Oklahoma to the
a warning with this package, but that will be something that we
will be monitoring overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

For Tuesday evening (mainly through 9 pm) will keep a slight chance
of thunderstorms in the forecast along and east of Interstate
35.  Although storm coverage (if any) will be isolated/widely
scattered, storms will have the potential to produce mainly
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma around 3-6Z Wednesday.
A rather tight thermal gradient should result in wind gusts to
at least 40 mph for a few hours after frontal passage.  A little
unsure how for south and east these winds will occur as the front
moves south overnight. However, the wind shift and strong winds
will certainly be concerning, if large wildfires develop Tuesday
afternoon/early evening.

As the front encounters better moisture, a narrow band of showers
and thunderstorms may develop across central and southern Oklahoma
during the overnight/early Wednesday.  Much drier air will overspread
the western two-thirds of Oklahoma and northern Texas by mid to late
morning Wednesday.

Although the surface pressure gradient may relax Wednesday
afternoon, deep mixing will result in gusty west to northwest winds.
Very dry afternoon humidity will result in at least critical fire
weather conditions, especially along and west of a Cherokee to
Wichita Falls line.  A fire weather watch will be issue for this
area (Wednesday afternoon).

Surface winds will diminish quickly Wednesday evening.  With a very
dry air mass in place, temperatures will cool rather quickly.  A
freeze is possible for at least parts of western and northern
Oklahoma.  With light winds, even sheltered parts of central and
southern Oklahoma may approach freezing by early Thursday morning.

The wind will remain light Thursday morning but will shift to the
south and increase across western Oklahoma during the afternoon.
This may elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours Thursday
afternoon.

A westerly flow aloft is expected Friday into the late weekend,
before a trough moves across the northern Rockies and northern
Plains. This system may push some rather cool/cold air into the
southern Plains late weekend into early next week.

Moisture return into south central and eastern Oklahoma Friday into
early Saturday may result in showers and storms but confidence in
this scenario is not high. By Saturday afternoon/evening, a few
models have a warm front draped across northern Texas with an
approaching disturbance from the west. This may result in showers
and thunderstorms with severe storms possible. Other models have
this boundary farther south with a reduced risk of severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Light east winds will begin to shift back to the southeast and
south overnight. Expect to see stratus develop with MVFR ceilings
across much of the area after midnight. LLWS will also develop as
strong llj takes shape tonight. Strong south winds will develop
during the day tomorrow, especially west of the dryline where
gusts to near 40kts appear possible. VFR ceilings should return by
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  86  53  67 /   0  10  20   0
Hobart OK         54  92  50  70 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  60  92  58  76 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           53  91  41  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     51  87  48  62 /   0  10  40  10
Durant OK         63  82  62  79 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021-033-034.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>089.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             4 E COALGATE            34.54N 96.15W
04/11/2022  M2.50 INCH       COAL               OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FROM TWITTER WITH PICTURE.

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 PM CDT MON APR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             4 SW LEHIGH             34.43N 96.27W
04/11/2022  M1.00 INCH       COAL               OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

RB

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