Tornado Warning 61, NWS Norman, OK

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WWUS54 KOUN 130335
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
935 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

OKC059-130400-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0061.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Harper OK-
935 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN HARPER COUNTY...
    
At 934 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles south of Englewood, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Harper County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior
room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you
are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9965 3689 9984 3688 9987 3688 10000
      3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 234DEG 32KT 3694 9995 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

$$

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WWUS54 KOUN 130349
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
949 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

OKC059-130359-
/O.CAN.KOUN.TO.W.0061.000000T0000Z-221213T0400Z/
Harper OK-
949 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HARPER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened, and has exited 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3700 9965 3689 9984 3688 9987 3688 10000
      3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 234DEG 32KT 3702 9981 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
504 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

Main impact in the short term will be the potential for strong to
severe storms overnight into early tomorrow morning. Overall
thinking remains very much in line with the mid shift (see previous
AFD for an excellent analysis of the main threat areas).

Broadly speaking we've got the ingredients in place for a severe
favorable environment. As can be seen from the fog and stratus,
we've got an abundance of low (as well as mid) level moisture in
place. An deep low will be approaching Colorado this evening,
providing upper level support as well as strong upper level flow.
Low level jet will get going tonight providing decent low level
flow. And a Pacific front will move into western Oklahoma providing
the focal point for storm initiation. The one complicating factor
will be the potential for near surface stability (keeping storms
elevated).

Storms will initiate along the western Oklahoma / eastern panhandle
border ahead of the approaching front between 10pm and midnight.
While there's still some disagreement in surface based CIN among
models, the higher res models tend to show an area of reduced CIN,
suggesting these initial (discrete) storms will be surface based.
Primary threat is expected to be damaging winds. Instability (SBCAPE
~800 joules) may support some marginally severe hail. A low tornado
threat will be present as well.

As storms move eastward, expect them to congeal into a line. For the
northern two-thirds of Oklahoma, storms will be entering a very
unfavorable environment as surface based CAPE falls to almost
nothing. Some modest MUCAPE may continue to support some elevated
storms, but the severe risk will be marginal.

More concerning will be storms moving along the Red River. Surface
base CAPE stays up along this corridor (likely due to the continued
moisture advection). This will allow for a continued QLCS / damaging
wind threat.

Storms are expected to cross the I-35 corridor around daybreak, then
move off into eastern Oklahoma around mid morning, giving way to
clear skies.

South winds will stay gusty through the night, becoming gusty
southwest to west winds after frontal passage. With some decent
850mb westerly flow, we could see some enhancement from downslope
flow / mixing in western Oklahoma as well.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

A second colder front will arrive Tuesday night, ushering in a
period of cold and dry weather. The upper low that is bringing
Monday night's storms will meander toward the Great Lakes region,
throwing a series of cold, dry waves at us through the end of the
week. High temperatures will mainly be in the 30s and 40s.

This upper level system is forecast to start moving off over the
weekend.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

IFR/LIFR conditions still expected at most sites through tonight
into early Tuesday before a return to VFR conditions occur.
Drizzle and light rain showers will continue this evening with a
chance of thunderstorms moving across the area from west to east
overnight. Gusty southeast winds will also continue overnight with
a shift to the southwest and west Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  58  30  47 / 100  30   0   0
Hobart OK         44  58  28  47 /  90   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  51  62  34  50 / 100  20   0   0
Gage OK           38  55  24  47 /  60   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     50  58  27  44 /  90  50   0   0
Durant OK         54  65  42  54 /  90 100   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Norman OK
250 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-132100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
250 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly
after 10pm through the morning. Storms will move into western
Oklahoma, and form into a line before moving eastward across parts
of southern, central, and northern Oklahoma, and western north
Texas. All hazards will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe storms will continue to move east of Interstate
35 Tuesday morning. Damaging winds and a tornado or two will be
possible.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
905 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

OKZ004-130330-
Harper OK-
905 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Harper
County through 930 PM CST...

At 902 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a severe and potentially
tornadic thunderstorm near Knowles, moving northeast at 45 mph. This
storm may move across across far northwest parts of Harper county
over the next 30 to 45 minutes. Although this storm will remain over
mainly rural areas of northwestern Harper County, continue to
monitor for possible warnings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9972 3683 10000 3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 227DEG 38KT 3684 10021

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

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