Severe Thunderstorm Warning 488, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
258 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

A weak front will continue to move slowly south through central
and southern Oklahoma by the evening. Very hot conditions will
again occur, especially south of the front. The heat advisory
remains in effect this afternoon for all areas from north central
through southern Oklahoma and part of northern Texas. Isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms will form later today, mostly near
and south of the front in the very hot and humid air mass.
Sounding profiles support downburst winds from the stronger
showers/storms. Although temperaturewise will fall slightly
behind the front on Saturday, it will still be sufficiently hot
and humid in southern Oklahoma to continue the afternoon heat
advisory there. Very low pops have been placed along the Red River
for Saturday afternoon just north of the frontal zone.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

For Sunday, went slightly cooler than NBM for the MaxT's using the
bias corrected CONSMOS, which is a little closer to the latest MEX
solution.  Our heatwave quickly returns for all on Monday as triple
digit afternoon temperatures become a bit more widespread.  A weak
cap across northwest Oklahoma may be sufficient for late afternoon
heating triggering some convection across northwest Oklahoma, as low
storm POPs are in the forecast through the evening hours.  However
weak surface based CAPE values so far should keep any of these
storms should they develop sub-severe.  Could see more numerous
storms in the northern panhandles & southwest Kansas in a uncapped
and stronger unstable environment.

All models still showing a shallow amplitude longwave trough digging
across the Northern Plains through the Midwest, which will be
pushing a cold front through our area on Tuesday.  The GFS is a bit
more aggressive with the frontal passage with a tighter pressure
gradient than the ECMWF and Canadian NH models. Increased the
windspeeds using the NBM 90th percentile winds behind the surface
boundary from late Tuesday morning into the afternoon to be closer
to the GFS solution. Although models slighlty differ with the
isobaric patter and frontal windspeeds, they remain consistent with
cooler 850 mb temperatures and decreasing thicknesses behind the
front, showing some cooling coming through with relief from those
triple digit temperatures.  Went slightly cooler than NBM using the
CONSMOS for the afternoon MaxT, with triple digit (100-105 degrees)
highs persisting across western north Texas and far southwest and
southeastern Oklahoma, with double-digit (mid 90s) across the
remainder of our area.  Not if we will see any rain/storms develop
along the frontal boundary due to a strong cap at the mid-levels,
but perhaps just cloudiness.  Models are showing a closed high
developing under the trough across the U.S. Southwest, with a
shortwave developing on the eastern periphery over northeastern New
Mexico. With ample mid-level moisture available, could see some
elevated storms Tuesday afternoon develop and track across the
Southern & Central High Plains, with a few moving into northern
Oklahoma.  As a result, have storm POPs back in the forecast Tuesday
afternoon across our north and overnight across our west, although
keeping them very low for now.

By Wednesday, all of our area will be feeling relief with widespread
double digits (mid to upper 90s), which is actually more
climatically normal for mid July.  Did go slightly cooler than NBM
with Wednesdays MaxT using the bias corrected CONSMOS.  However, we
start gradually heating up again toward the end of next week as
pressure heights rise under a ridge. South winds make a return by
Friday bringing in hotter air as much of our area returns to
unseasonably normal triple digit highs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

VFR conditions are expected outside of isolated thunderstorms in
the southern half of Oklahoma today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  96  71  95 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75 101  71  99 /  30  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  77 103  74 100 /  30  10   0   0
Gage OK           71  97  70  99 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     72  94  68  95 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         77 100  74  97 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-037>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ039-041-043-
     045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-088>090.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of
central and southern Oklahoma this afternoon through late this
evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected. The
strongest storms could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of nickels.

.Heat...
Triple digit temperatures and heat index values are expected this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are possible across far southwestern Oklahoma and
north Texas Saturday afternoon. Low thunderstorm chances return
to northern Oklahoma Monday night, and will continue to spread
southward Tuesday through early Wednesday.

.Heat...
Triple digit temperatures and heat index values will continue
Saturday afternoon across portions of southern Oklahoma and north
Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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