Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

Extensive clouds and precipitation this morning has inhibited the
northward progression of the warm front, currently draped across
central into northwest Oklahoma. The airmass along and south of
the front continues to rapidly destabilize as mid to upper 60
degree dewpoints advect northward ahead of a dryline across
western Oklahoma. The front is expected to move slowly northward
over the next couple hours, but uncertainty remains on exactly
where the front will be positioned by mid-afternoon. Thunderstorm
initiation is expected by 19-20z today across south- central
Kansas into north- central Oklahoma near a triple point and along
the dryline and will track eastward along and to the south of the
warm front this afternoon. The environment in the vicinity of the
warm front will be conducive for supercell and tornadoes with
locally backed low- level flow low LCL's. This is where we expect
the highest tornado potential today as well the greatest risk for
a potential strong tornado or two. Very large hail will also be a
risk with any of these storms

At the same time a cold front will be rapidly moving southward into
northwest Oklahoma and is likely to catch up with this convection
and serve as a focus for new convective development as well. It
appears convection may try to grow quickly upscale along the cold
front which would likely lead to an increasing damaging wind threat
as these storms push southward. Some tornado risk will continue
into the evening as low-level shear increases, especially along
the southern end of the line, but a linear storm mode and the
potential for the cold front to undercut convection may inhibit
these storms from fully taking advantage of the highly sheared
low-level environment.

The cold front will continue southward overnight, with the severe
threat diminishing after midnight. We may see a few hours of fairly
strong wind gusts behind the front with strong pressure rises across
northwest Oklahoma. A few showers and storms may linger into Tuesday
morning across southeast Oklahoma, but otherwise we expect cooler
and much drier conditions to spread into the area, with highs in the
60s to near 70 across our southwest counties.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

The cold front will return northward as a warm front Wednesday.
Models suggest extensive morning clouds and precipitation will be
present across the area during the morning, with the northward
progression of the warm front and the degree of warm sector
destabilization still fairly uncertain. This will modulate where the
greatest severe thunderstorm potential will be, but assuming we can
get sufficient clearing for destabilization all severe hazards will
be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening with any storms the
develop along the warm front or dryline. Additional storms may then
develop Wednesday night along a cold front that will then move
slowly southward across the area through Thursday morning.

Drier and warmer conditions are then expected to end the week into
the weekend as upper ridging builds overhead. Another trough will
approach the area from the west early next week, bringing our next
chance for storms and potential for severe weather.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

Severe TSRA will move out of central and north central Oklahoma
terminals within the first hour of forecast. TSRA could impact
KLAW for an hour or two at beginning of forecast and will monitor.
Otherwise, moderate to strong northwest wind behind cold front
will decrease overnight and tomorrow. MVFR cigs will spread into
northern and possibly central Oklahoma overnight with clearing
after 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  45  67  54 /  60  70   0  30
Hobart OK         90  42  71  53 /  20  10   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  89  49  70  57 /  20  20   0  30
Gage OK           87  38  69  48 /  10   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     77  43  66  49 /  70  60   0  20
Durant OK         82  53  69  58 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ033.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
741 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
741 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Through this evening, a severe squall line is expected to progress
south and east across central into southern Oklahoma. Damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and very heavy rain will be the main
concerns. A few tornadoes will also be possible.

.Heavy Rain...
Heavy rain will lead to localized flooding across portions of
central and southern Oklahoma as strong to severe storms move
through.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
After a brief break Tuesday, severe storm chances will return
Wednesday afternoon and evening across much of Oklahoma and
western north Texas. All hazards will be possible.

The rest of the work week into the early part of the weekend will
then be dry with low thunderstorm chances returning to parts of
the area on Sunday.

.Heavy Rain...
Heavy rain which could cause flooding will be possible again
Wednesday into early Thursday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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