Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

Extensive clouds and precipitation this morning has inhibited the
northward progression of the warm front, currently draped across
central into northwest Oklahoma. The airmass along and south of
the front continues to rapidly destabilize as mid to upper 60
degree dewpoints advect northward ahead of a dryline across
western Oklahoma. The front is expected to move slowly northward
over the next couple hours, but uncertainty remains on exactly
where the front will be positioned by mid-afternoon. Thunderstorm
initiation is expected by 19-20z today across south- central
Kansas into north- central Oklahoma near a triple point and along
the dryline and will track eastward along and to the south of the
warm front this afternoon. The environment in the vicinity of the
warm front will be conducive for supercell and tornadoes with
locally backed low- level flow low LCL's. This is where we expect
the highest tornado potential today as well the greatest risk for
a potential strong tornado or two. Very large hail will also be a
risk with any of these storms

At the same time a cold front will be rapidly moving southward into
northwest Oklahoma and is likely to catch up with this convection
and serve as a focus for new convective development as well. It
appears convection may try to grow quickly upscale along the cold
front which would likely lead to an increasing damaging wind threat
as these storms push southward. Some tornado risk will continue
into the evening as low-level shear increases, especially along
the southern end of the line, but a linear storm mode and the
potential for the cold front to undercut convection may inhibit
these storms from fully taking advantage of the highly sheared
low-level environment.

The cold front will continue southward overnight, with the severe
threat diminishing after midnight. We may see a few hours of fairly
strong wind gusts behind the front with strong pressure rises across
northwest Oklahoma. A few showers and storms may linger into Tuesday
morning across southeast Oklahoma, but otherwise we expect cooler
and much drier conditions to spread into the area, with highs in the
60s to near 70 across our southwest counties.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

The cold front will return northward as a warm front Wednesday.
Models suggest extensive morning clouds and precipitation will be
present across the area during the morning, with the northward
progression of the warm front and the degree of warm sector
destabilization still fairly uncertain. This will modulate where the
greatest severe thunderstorm potential will be, but assuming we can
get sufficient clearing for destabilization all severe hazards will
be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening with any storms the
develop along the warm front or dryline. Additional storms may then
develop Wednesday night along a cold front that will then move
slowly southward across the area through Thursday morning.

Drier and warmer conditions are then expected to end the week into
the weekend as upper ridging builds overhead. Another trough will
approach the area from the west early next week, bringing our next
chance for storms and potential for severe weather.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

Severe TSRA will move out of central and north central Oklahoma
terminals within the first hour of forecast. TSRA could impact
KLAW for an hour or two at beginning of forecast and will monitor.
Otherwise, moderate to strong northwest wind behind cold front
will decrease overnight and tomorrow. MVFR cigs will spread into
northern and possibly central Oklahoma overnight with clearing
after 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  45  67  54 /  60  70   0  30
Hobart OK         90  42  71  53 /  20  10   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  89  49  70  57 /  20  20   0  30
Gage OK           87  38  69  48 /  10   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     77  43  66  49 /  70  60   0  20
Durant OK         82  53  69  58 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ033.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1221 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
For this afternoon and evening, there is a risk for severe storms
across the entire area with the highest potential in parts of
north central and central Oklahoma, generally east and north of a
line from Cherokee and Kingfisher, to Guthrie and Stroud Oklahoma.

A warm front is expected to continue to lift north into parts of
northern Oklahoma this afternoon with a dryline extending
southward from where it meets the warm front in northwest
Oklahoma. A cold front will then move across the area this evening
and overnight. Additional thunderstorms could develop near the
dryline and/or the warm front mid to late this afternoon. Storms
will then be possible along the cold front as it moves across the
area. Severe storms will be possible between 2 pm and midnight
with very large hail up to the size of baseballs and damaging
winds over 60 mph. Some tornadoes will also be possible with the
highest potential across portions of north central Oklahoma,
including Stillwater, Enid, and Ponca City, just to name a few
locations.

.Heavy Rain...
Heavy rain could lead to localized flooding in some areas through
tonight.

.Fire Weather...
Near critical to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
this afternoon in parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas due to low RH, gusty winds, and dry vegetation behind the
dryline.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
After a brief break Tuesday, severe storm chances will return
Wednesday afternoon and evening across much of Oklahoma and
western north Texas. All hazards will be possible.

The rest of the work week into the early part of the weekend will
then be dry with low thunderstorm chances returning to parts of
the area on Sunday.

.Heavy Rain...
Heavy rain which could cause flooding will be possible again
Wednesday into early Thursday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
658 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             2 N NOBLE               35.17N 97.39W
05/02/2022  M1.25 INCH       CLEVELAND          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM     HAIL             AMBER                   35.16N 97.88W
05/02/2022  M2.00 INCH       GRADY              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0655 PM     HAIL             CHICKASHA               35.04N 97.94W
05/02/2022  M1.00 INCH       GRADY              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0656 PM     HAIL             VERDEN                  35.08N 98.09W
05/02/2022  M1.00 INCH       GRADY              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
701 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW NORMAN            35.23N 97.48W
05/02/2022  E60 MPH          CLEVELAND          OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             CHICKASHA               35.04N 97.94W
05/02/2022  M1.40 INCH       GRADY              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
706 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             5 SW AMBER              35.11N 97.94W
05/02/2022  E2.00 INCH       GRADY              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
711 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HAIL             2 E NOBLE               35.14N 97.36W
05/02/2022  E1.00 INCH       CLEVELAND          OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             1 NE CHICKASHA          35.06N 97.92W
05/02/2022  E2.75 INCH       GRADY              OK   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

BT