Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
628 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

There is a lot going on.

First, fire weather continues to be a concern in southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. A dryline has developed in the
Texas panhandle and is currently moving through the region ahead of
the surface cold front, with RH percentages below 20% in portions of
western north Texas. Gusty southerly winds will continue in western
north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma prior to the front arriving,
with >30mph wind gusts ongoing. A Red Flag Warning will continue
through 8pm tonight. With the strong winds and dry conditions behind
the dryline, some blowing dust could occur in western north Texas.

In addition to the fire weather concerns, winds behind the cold
front will intensify, with widespread 25-35mph and gusts up to 45mph
expected through western and portions of central Oklahoma tonight. A
Wind Advisory has been issued for this area until 7am Friday
morning. These winds will need to be watched overnight for a
possible upgrade from an advisory to a High Wind Warning.

Next, severe weather is expected across Oklahoma and portions of
western north Texas. As the dryline continues to push eastward and
the cold front shifts to the southeast, storms are expected to
develop ahead of these surface boundaries, starting around 4pm in
southwestern Oklahoma. Along with the forcing from the surface
boundaries, near dry-adiabatic lapse rates in the mid-levels as well
as ample bulk wind shear (0-6km shear > 40kts) will support the
initial development of discrete storms, with large hail and strong
winds being the main concern with these storms. With limited
moisture at the surface and a lack of surface based instability,
tornado potential is limited for tonight, however the tornado
potential is not zero due to strengthening low level shear and
stretching may cause a brief spin-up.

Gradually the storms are expected to grow upscale, however the
strength of the wind shear will likely maintain some line segments
with enhanced possibility of severe winds developing. Severe hail
potential will gradually decrease as the storms develop into lines,
however the mid-level instability will likely continue the threat
throughout the evening. This congealing of the storms will likely
occur east of I-35 until the storms exit the region to the east.

Finally, with the passage of the cold front and the cooling of the
atmospheric column behind the front, rain is expected to mix with
snow across northwestern Oklahoma overnight Thursday night into
Friday. Precipitation will wrap around the upper level cyclone as
the upper-level trough exits towards the northeast, and any precip
that occurs in northwestern Oklahoma has the potential to fall as
snow given enough column cooling. Forecast soundings indicate a very
wet snow, which will likely result in travel concerns with reduced
visibility due to the amount of snowfall, however there'll be
limited blowing snow concerns due to the heaviness of the wet snow.
Accumulations up to an inch are expected, however a deformation band
expected to develop in western Kansas may extend further south into
the region, and may result in increased accumulation amounts. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northwestern Oklahoma,
and the deformation band will need to be monitored throughout the
evening.

With the exit of the upper-level trough and the precipitation,
ridging will set into the region and keep the weather calm for
Friday afternoon. Temperatures will cool to near average on
Friday, as northerly surface winds begin to decrease.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

No major changes to the long term forecast. Overnight Friday into
Saturday, winds will switch and become strong out of the south,
resulting into a warming trend over the weekend, with mid 70s
expected to return by Sunday. On Sunday, the warm temperatures,
strong winds, and dry antecedent conditions will result in fire
weather concerns for western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Another upper level trough will move through the region Monday into
Tuesday, bringing widespread precipitation chances across Oklahoma
and western north Texas. Models and ensembles indicate the
possibility of heavy rainfall with these precipitation chances with
most models containing widespread 1-2" rainfall, and some higher end
precipitation forecasts of 2-3".

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

Thunderstorms will continue developing eastward into our central
Oklahoma sites over the next couple hours with reduced ceilings
and visibility in vicinity of any storms. Rain will mix with or
change to snow for a period across northwest Oklahoma, including
KWWR, for a period overnight but no significant accumulation is
expected. MVFR ceilings will linger into the morning before
improving by mid to late morning at most sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  38  55  35 /  40  80  20   0
Hobart OK         75  37  60  31 /  30  40   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  82  41  63  35 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           64  31  58  28 /  60  70  10   0
Ponca City OK     75  37  53  31 /  40 100  60   0
Durant OK         76  43  58  37 /  30  60  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for OKZ004>007-009>012-
     014>019-021>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
     Friday for OKZ004-005-009-010.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ033>038-044.

TX...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1202 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms during the late
afternoon and evening across southern and central Oklahoma, and
parts of western north Texas. The slight risk area is generally
east of a line from Yukon, to Binger and Carnegie, to Frederick,
to Henrietta, Texas. There is a marginal risk to the west of the
slight risk area, and southeast of a line from Perry, to Canton,
Elk City, Altus, and Wichita Falls, Texas. Scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible with hail up to the size of golf
balls and wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph. There is a very low
potential of a tornado, particularly across south-central and
southeast Oklahoma.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
central and southern Oklahoma should prepare for severe weather
operations late this afternoon and evening.

.Fire Weather...
Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
again this afternoon across north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.

.Strong Winds...
Strong northerly winds are expected this
afternoon and overnight, especially across northwestern and
western Oklahoma where wind gusts of up to 45 mph will be
possible.

.Winter Weather...
A light rain snow mix is possible across northwest Oklahoma
tonight. Minor snow accumulations up to an inch are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Friday across
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Near critical fire
weather conditions are possible on Sunday afternoon across western
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance of thunderstorms on Monday, mainly across
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE FORT COBB RESERVO 35.16N 98.46W
03/17/2022  M60 MPH          CADDO              OK   MESONET

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             CARNEGIE                35.11N 98.60W
03/17/2022  E1.25 INCH       CADDO              OK   PUBLIC

&&

RB