Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
935 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 437 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022

For the remainder of Wednesday, fire weather continues to be a
concern with clear skies, widespread upper 70s/low 80s temperatures,
and relative humidities in the single digits/low 10s across western
Oklahoma/north Texas and extending into portions of northern
Oklahoma. Strong winds between 20-30mph are observed in a corridor
from western north Texas into western and northern Oklahoma. With
the nighttime decoupling of the atmosphere, winds will decrease. A
band of high clouds will develop with support of an upper level
shortwave propagating through the flow ahead of an approaching
longwave trough. Lows will range from the low 40s to the low 50s,
with the 50s primarily being located where any high clouds develop.

A cold front will begin to slowly move into northwestern Oklahoma
early Thursday morning as a surface cyclone begins to develop in the
southern Texas panhandle. This surface cyclone will begin to become
more progressive to the east Thursday afternoon, moving through
southwestern Oklahoma and bringing the cold front through the
region. Precipitation chances increase with the movement of the cold
front eastward. With ample deep layer shear, instability, and the
large scale ascent from the cold front, a few thunderstorms are
possible with the storms. Large hail is currently the primary
concerns with any severe storms that develop. As the colder airmass
continues to move into the region behind the cold front, the column
of atmosphere in northwestern and northern Oklahoma may cool enough
that precipitation may mix or changeover to snow, with
accumulations expected to remain under an inch.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 437 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022

With the exit of the upper-level trough, ridging will set into the
region and keep the weather calm for Friday through the weekend.
Temperatures will cool to near average on Friday, as northerly
surface winds begin to decrease. Overnight Friday into Saturday,
winds will switch and become strong out of the south, resulting
into a warming trend over the weekend, with mid 70s expected to
return by Sunday. Another upper level trough will move through the
region Monday into Tuesday, bringing widespread precipitation
chances across Oklahoma and western north Texas. Models and
ensembles indicate the possibility of heavy rainfall with these
precipitation chances with most models containing widespread 1-2"
rainfall, and some higher end precipitation forecasts of 2-3".

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 921 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022

Gusty south winds will persist overnight with LLWS expected at
most TAF sites. A front will move roughly west to east across
Oklahoma late tomorrow afternoon and evening with rain and
thunderstorms ahead of it. MVFR conditions are expected with some
IFR in western Oklahoma behind the front. Additionally strong and
gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  72  38  57 /   0  50  80  10
Hobart OK         49  74  36  61 /   0  40  40   0
Wichita Falls TX  51  81  41  64 /   0  20  20   0
Gage OK           41  62  31  59 /   0  60  70   0
Ponca City OK     49  74  36  57 /   0  50 100  30
Durant OK         51  76  43  61 /   0  40  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
727 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-180030-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
727 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late Thursday
afternoon and evening across south central Oklahoma and parts of
central Oklahoma and north Texas. Scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible with hail up to the size of golf balls
and wind gusts around 60 mph.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
again Thursday afternoon across north Texas and southwestern
Oklahoma, and again on Sunday afternoon across western Oklahoma
and western north Texas.

.Strong winds...
Strong northerly winds are expected late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening, especially across northwestern and western
Oklahoma where wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
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Mahale