Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Warnings in 2022

Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS New York, NY

March 11, 2022Orange County, New York

NWS New York, NY issued this winter storm warning at Mar 11, 2022, 3:07 PM EST for Orange County, New York. It took effect at Mar 12, 2022, 6:00 AM EST. It was in force for 13 hr. 6 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Mar 11, 2022, 3:07 PM EST (20:07 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 12, 2022, 6:00 AM EST
Expired
Mar 12, 2022, 6:51 PM EST
In force
13 hr
Issued by
NWS New York, NY

County Orange County, NY

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Mar 12, 11:00 AM ESTSNOW 2Chester, NY
Mar 12, 12:40 PM ESTSNOW 3.9Goshen, NY
Mar 12, 1:30 PM ESTSNOW 4.5Monroe, NY
Mar 12, 1:51 PM ESTSNOW 3.8Warwick, NY
Mar 12, 2:30 PM ESTSNOW 3.5Gardnertown, NY
Mar 12, 6:15 PM ESTSNOW 4.4New Windsor, NY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2022-03-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2022-03-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 81 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
979 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
74 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
81 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
247 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

869 
WWUS41 KOKX 112007
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
307 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

NYZ067-120415-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0014.220312T1100Z-220313T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0003.220312T1100Z-220313T0000Z/
Orange-
307 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Orange County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-103-NYZ068>070-120415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1300Z-220313T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Western Bergen-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
307 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, along with the refreezing of wet surfaces. 
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high
  as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly during the 
  day Saturday resulting in a quick freezing of any standing 
  water resulting in difficult travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176-178-120415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1400Z-220313T0000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
307 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, along with the refreezing of wet surfaces. 
  Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high
  as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly during the
  day Saturday resulting in a quick freezing some standing water 
  resulting in difficult travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NJZ004-104>108-120415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1400Z-220313T0000Z/
Eastern Passaic-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-
307 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, along with the refreezing of wet surfaces. 
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high
  as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly during the 
  day Saturday resulting in a quick freezing of any standing 
  water resulting in difficult travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc
4 follow-up statements
856 
WWUS41 KOKX 120350
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1050 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

NYZ067-121200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.220312T1100Z-220313T0000Z/
Orange-
1050 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Orange County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-103-NYZ068>070-121200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1300Z-220313T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Western Bergen-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
1050 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, along with the refreezing of wet 
  surfaces. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly during the 
  day Saturday resulting in a quick freezing of any standing 
  water resulting in difficult travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176-178-121200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1400Z-220313T0000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
1050 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, along with the refreezing of wet 
  surfaces. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly during the
  day Saturday resulting in a quick freezing of some standing 
  water resulting in difficult travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NJZ004-104>108-121200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1400Z-220313T0000Z/
Eastern Passaic-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-
1050 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, along with the refreezing of wet 
  surfaces. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds 
  gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly during the 
  day Saturday resulting in a quick freezing of any standing 
  water resulting in difficult travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc
240 
WWUS41 KOKX 120902
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
402 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

NYZ067-122100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.220312T1100Z-220313T0000Z/
Orange-
402 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Orange County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could bring
  down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-103-NYZ068>070-122100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1300Z-220313T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Western Bergen-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
402 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly late this
  morning into this afternoon resulting in a quick freezing of any
  standing water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176-178-122100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1400Z-220313T0000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
402 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly late this
  morning into this afternoon resulting in a quick freezing of any
  standing water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NJZ004-104>108-122100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1400Z-220313T0000Z/
Eastern Passaic-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-
402 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly late this
  morning into this afternoon resulting in a quick freezing of any
  standing water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc
342 
WWUS41 KOKX 122040
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
340 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

NYZ067-130000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Orange-
340 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of one to two 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Orange County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-103-NYZ068>070-130000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Western Bergen-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
340 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. 
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176-178-130000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
340 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. 
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NJZ004-104>108-130000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Eastern Passaic-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-
340 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. 
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc
468 
WWUS41 KOKX 122351
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
651 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

NYZ067-130100-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Orange-
651 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The snow has come to an end, so the warning has been cancelled. 

Travelers should still exercise extra caution overnight for 
blowing snow and snow covered and locally icy untreated roads and 
walkways as temperatures fall through the teens. 

Combined with strong winds, frigid windchills of 0 to 5 degrees 
below zero are expected late tonight into Sunday morning.


$$

CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-176-178-130100-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-220313T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern Fairfield-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
651 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The snow has come to an end so the advisory has been cancelled. 
Travelers should still exercise extra caution overnight for 
locally snow covered and icy untreated roads and walkways as 
temperatures fall into the mid teens to lower 20s.

Combined with strong winds, very cold windchills of 0 to 5 
degrees above zero are expected late tonight into Sunday morning.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Mar 11, 12:28 PM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 11, 12:28 PM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1228 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure moves offshore today as a front approaches from
the west. Low pressure will develop along this front tonight and
intensify as it moves across and just to the east on Saturday.
High pressure builds to the south of the area Sunday and then
off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night into Monday. A weak cold
front passes through on Tuesday, followed by high pressure
building in from the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. An
area of low pressure approaches from the south Wednesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some minor tweaks to hourly fields, but otherwise the fcst is on
track. A mixture of sun and clouds for today, with more sun
than clouds overall. The winds will be light as weak high
pressure drifts offshore. Temperatures will be right around
normal for this time of the year, with most spots further west
getting into the lower 50s, with upper 40s most elsewhere.

Clouds increase late today and this evening. Clouds will lower and
thicken late this evening and closer to midnight as warm advection
ensues with attention turning to a frontal boundary off to the west
as low pressure begins to develop down to our south. Northern stream
energy looks to begin to phase with energy moving across the Gulf
and States. This will lead to a strong baroclinic zone forming off
to our west. The trough deepens into Saturday morning with anomalous
height falls approaching the area. Look for precipitation in the
liquid form to develop just after midnight, as some drizzle and
light rain. As better forcing takes shape towards daybreak the
steadier rain will move in from the south and southwest. Look for
low temperatures to be mainly in the middle 30s north and west, to
the lower and middle 40s further south and east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday morning the low begins to deepen along the frontal
boundary quickly as it lifts north-northeast and right through and
just east of Long Island by later in the day as a 980 mb low. By all
accounts from the global deterministic guidance and ensemble members
it will be a fairly quick mover. Temperatures will be mild enough
that precip is to be mostly in the from of plain rain, at least
through much of the event for the city and coastal areas. However
for western areas like in Orange County where a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued, temperatures will fall shortly after
sunrise, especially towards the mid to late morning. Here, the snow
will change briefly to sleet / ice pellets, then quickly to snow.
The snow will likely come down heavily for a few hours before the
snow growth region begins to dry out. For a 3 to 4 hour period is
where 2 to 4 inches of snow is likely, and a bit further east across
the Lower Hudson Valley and western NE New Jersey up to a couple of
inches is likely. The colder air will come rushing in quickly, thus
after raining and then turning to snow the roadways will likely
freeze fairly quickly as in situations where it rains first it is
difficult for treatment to work quickly enough. Thus thought it
prudent to at least to carry the advisory for Orange County, and
hold off for now for the neighboring counties to the east like
Putnam and Passaic Counties. As the precip changes to snow it will
only be a couple of hours later that the snow growth zone drys out,
with lighter snowfall thereafter. Thus for now I don't think a
warning level snowfall will occur for northwestern areas. Also, at
least for now I am thinking that the temperature wave will lag the
pressure wave just enough that this will not be a classic flash
freeze situation as temperatures are not currently forecast to fall
quickly enough while it is precipitating, but this will have to
continue to be evaluated in future forecast packages. Even the city
and coast will change to a brief period of sleet and then to snow
for an hour or two before the precipitation tapers off later in the
afternoon. An inch of snow is the current thinking for the city, and
perhaps even less than that heading east as the mid and upper levels
dry out as the colder air rushes in and any lift goes to the
northeast and exits. With the majority of the precipitation falling
as rain, look for around an inch of rain on average with this system
with perhaps northeastern sections getting closer a bit more. The
heaviest portion of the rain will take place during Saturday
morning, and then exiting northeastern sections late in the
afternoon and early evening.

The winds will be an issue with this storm system as the storm
deepens rapidly. When the low gets north of Maine, a lot of the
guidance has the pressure getting down around 960 mb. The pressure
gradient will be tight and the winds will become rather gusty, and
possibly strong later in the day and into the evening. The strongest
gusts are likely late in the evening and towards midnight with rapid
pressure rises and the upper level trough axis pivoting through with
deep cold mixing supporting gusts to around 45 mph. Held off on wind
advisories for the time being with the winds being marginal for an
advisory. Skies will clear quickly after midnight as temperatures
drop to unseasonably cold levels. Late at night wind chill values
will get into the single digits across the entire area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Intense low pressure well up into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday
morning will continue to slowly pull away from the area while high
pressure builds to the south. Global models have the low dropping
well below 950 mb on Sunday. Behind it, an unseasonably cold airmass
will be in place with highs in the 30s on Sunday and a gradually
subsiding westerly flow. Gusts in the morning will likely start off
in the 30 to 40 mph range, falling off to 25 to 30 mph in the
afternoon. Winch chills will rise through the teens in the morning
and into the 20s in the afternoon. This will be a fleeting cold
airmass as the northern branch upper trough lifts out into the north
Atlantic, while the southern branch becomes dominant across the
Lower 48 heading into the upcoming week.

Surface high pressure to the south will work offshore Sunday night
into Monday with a warm front passing to the NW. SW winds will warm
temperatures up by about 10 degrees Sunday night, with lows much
closer to normal. Highs will then warm up well into the 50s by
Tuesday with the exception of immediate coastal locations,
especially across eastern lI and SE CT, where a SW flow will be
coming off the much cooler waters.

A weak cold front passes through late Tuesday afternoon/evening
(trend has been slower the last 24h). Some of the guidance is
showing light precipitation behind the boundary, mainly north of the
area. Plan to maintain a dry forecast until we see more run to run
continuity. High pressure more or less bridges across the front
Tuesday night into Wednesday as it washes out. Airmass may be
slightly cooler as winds become more easterly as low pressure over
the deep south begins to lift northward. The latter feature is where
global models are having some disagreement with how quickly and how
far north the low gets in the Wednesday into Thursday timeframe. At
this time, have only introduced a slight chance of rain Thursday,
mainly at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong frontal system approaches from the west through this
evening. Low pressure develops along this front tonight and
intensify as it moves across and just to the east on Saturday.

VFR through this evening. IFR/LIFR develops overnight with some
drizzle or light rain possible along the immediate coast. A
steadier rain develops from south to north early Saturday
morning and becomes moderate to locally heavy around or just
after 12z. The rain should then transition to a mixture of sleet
and/or snow from west to east across the Lower Hudson Valley
through the rest of the morning. This transition should then
make it towards the NYC metro around midday. The precipitation
then ends as a period of snow into the middle of the afternoon
before ending. Further east across Long Island and Southern
Connecticut, rain is expected until late morning when a
transition to sleet may occur by midday and could end as light
snow in the afternoon.

KSWF has the potential for a light to moderate snowfall with 2
to 3 inches of accumulation. Elsewhere, mainly an inch or less
of snow/sleet accumulation.

S-SE winds under 10 kt through this evening. Winds slowly back
to the E and NE into early Saturday morning then shift to the NW
12-16z from west to east. Winds will rapidly increase after the
wind shift to the NW becoming 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt,
highest in the afternoon and evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence in timing of IFR or possibly LIFR conditions this
evening. It could occur closer to 00z or it could be delayed 1-3
hours from TAF.

Amendments likely for timing of precipitation type transitions
Saturday morning.

Amendments likely for timing of wind shift to the NW Saturday
morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sat PM...Any rain becomes a wintry mix of snow/sleet before
ending late afternoon. IFR or lower improves to VFR late. NW
winds gusts 35-45 kt possible late afternoon through the night.
.Sun...VFR with gusty W winds around 25-30 kt, mainly in the
morning.
.Mon-Wed...VFR..

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through tonight. Then
deepening low pressure passes through the waters on Saturday. Winds
will ramp up quickly very late tonight into Saturday morning, with
the winds turning north, then becoming northwest towards the
afternoon across all waters. This is when winds really become gusty
and strong. A Gale Warning is in effect for all waters for the late
morning on Saturday right through Sunday morning. Storm force wind
gusts are a possibility, especially for the eastern half of the
ocean waters and possibly the Eastern and South Shore bays of Long
Island and the eastern portions of LI Sound.

Gale gusts will remain likely early Sunday morning with winds and
gusts diminishing from west to east. The gale warning may need to be
extended further into Sunday morning. Once gale force winds
diminish a period of SCA conditions will be possible into Sunday
night, especially on the ocean waters. A WSW flow could allow
seas around 5 ft to linger into Monday on the eastern ocean
water, otherwise sub advisory conditions are expected Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A strong frontal system with intensifying low pressure has the
potential to bring precipitation on the order of an inch to an inch
and a half of water equivalent very late tonight into the day on
Saturday. Some of the precipitation will be in the frozen form on
the back side, especially for western areas. At this time hydrologic
impacts are expected to be minimal as the storm is expected to move
through quickly and exit by late Saturday afternoon, along with some
of the precipitation being in the frozen form.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     NYZ067.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 AM EST Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 11, 4:00 AM EST, 11 hours 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
400 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179-120900-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
400 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ067-120900-
Orange-
400 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-120900-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
400 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 11, 3:42 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryOKXOrange11 hr
Mar 11, 3:46 AM ESTGale WarningOKX54 hr
Mar 11, 3:04 PM ESTWind AdvisoryOKXBronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam and 5 more36 hr
Mar 11, 3:07 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryOKXBronx, Kings, New York, Putnam, Queens, Richmond and 2 more28 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in New York, 2022Every winter storm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.