Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2022
Wind Advisory 6, NWS New York, NY
NWS New York, NY issued this wind advisory at Mar 11, 2022, 3:04 PM EST for 11 counties in New York; 5 counties in New Jersey; 4 counties in Connecticut. It took effect at Mar 12, 2022, 11:00 AM EST. It was in force for 16 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 11, 2022, 3:04 PM EST (20:04 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 12, 2022, 11:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Mar 13, 2022, 4:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 16 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New York, NY
Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY
The radar
The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 979 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 74 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 81 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 247 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
588 WWUS71 KOKX 112004 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 304 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 NYZ078>081-177-179-120415- /O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.220312T1600Z-220313T0500Z/ Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau- 304 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Northwest Suffolk, Northeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Northern Nassau and Southern Nassau Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the wind, rain will change over to snow by Saturday afternoon before ending. At least a coating of snow is expected for most areas. As temperatures drop below freezing by late afternoon into the evening, refreezing is possible on some surfaces, creating the potential for hazardous travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ CTZ007-008-010>012-120415- /O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.220312T1600Z-220313T0500Z/ Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 304 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Northern Middlesex, Northern New London, Southern New Haven, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the wind, rain will change over to snow by Saturday afternoon before ending. At least a coating of snow is expected for most areas. As temperatures drop below freezing by late afternoon into the evening, refreezing is possible on some surfaces, creating the potential for hazardous travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
5 follow-up statements
331 WWUS71 KOKX 120346 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1046 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 NYZ078>081-177-179-121200- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.220312T1600Z-220313T0500Z/ Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau- 1046 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Nassau and Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the wind, rain will change over to snow by Saturday afternoon before ending. At least a coating of snow is expected for most areas. As temperatures drop below freezing by late afternoon into the evening, refreezing is possible on some surfaces, creating the potential for hazardous travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ CTZ007-008-010>012-121200- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.220312T1600Z-220313T0500Z/ Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 1046 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Middlesex, New London, and Southern New Haven Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the wind, rain will change over to snow by Saturday afternoon before ending. At least a coating of snow is expected for most areas. As temperatures drop below freezing by late afternoon into the evening, refreezing is possible on some surfaces, creating the potential for hazardous travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
574 WWUS71 KOKX 121006 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 506 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-121815- /O.EXB.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.220312T1600Z-220313T0800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern Fairfield- Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen- Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- Southern Queens- 506 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 11 AM EST this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NYZ078>081-177-179-121815- /O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.220312T1600Z-220313T0800Z/ Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau- 506 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Southeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Northeast Suffolk, Northern Nassau and Northwest Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM EST this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the wind, rain will change over to snow this afternoon before ending. At least a coating of snow is expected for most areas. As temperatures drop below freezing this afternoon, refreezing is possible on some surfaces, creating the potential for hazardous travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ CTZ007-008-010>012-121815- /O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.220312T1600Z-220313T0800Z/ Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 506 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Southern Middlesex, Northern New London, Northern Middlesex, Southern New London and Southern New Haven Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM EST this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the wind, rain will change over to snow this afternoon before ending. At least a coating of snow is expected for most areas. As temperatures drop below freezing this afternoon, refreezing is possible on some surfaces, creating the potential for hazardous travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
494 WWUS71 KOKX 121747 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1247 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 NYZ078>081-177-179-130800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220313T0800Z/ Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau- 1247 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Southeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Northeast Suffolk, Northern Nassau and Northwest Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ CTZ007-008-010>012-130800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220313T0800Z/ Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 1247 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Southern Middlesex, Northern New London, Northern Middlesex, Southern New London and Southern New Haven Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-130800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220313T0800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern Fairfield- Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen- Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- Southern Queens- 1247 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
325 WWUS71 KOKX 122055 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 355 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 NYZ078>081-177-179-130800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220313T0800Z/ Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau- 355 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Southeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Northeast Suffolk, Northern Nassau and Northwest Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ CTZ007-008-010>012-130800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220313T0800Z/ Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 355 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Southern Middlesex, Northern New London, Northern Middlesex, Southern New London and Southern New Haven Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-130800- /O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220313T0800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern Fairfield- Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen- Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- Southern Queens- 355 PM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
928 WWUS71 KOKX 130800 NPWOKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 400 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 NYZ078>081-177-179-130900- /O.EXP.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220313T0800Z/ Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau- 400 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... Westerly winds will continue to gusts early this morning, but will remain below advisory level with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. $$ CTZ007-008-010>012-130900- /O.EXP.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220313T0800Z/ Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- 400 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... Westerly winds will continue to gusts early this morning, but will remain below advisory level with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. $$ CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-130900- /O.EXP.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220313T0800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern Fairfield- Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen- Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- Southern Queens- 400 AM EDT Sun Mar 13 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... Westerly winds will continue to gusts early this morning, but will remain below advisory level with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Mar 11, 12:28 PM EST, 2 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 11, 12:28 PM EST, 2 hours 36 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1228 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure moves offshore today as a front approaches from
the west. Low pressure will develop along this front tonight and
intensify as it moves across and just to the east on Saturday.
High pressure builds to the south of the area Sunday and then
off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night into Monday. A weak cold
front passes through on Tuesday, followed by high pressure
building in from the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. An
area of low pressure approaches from the south Wednesday night
into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some minor tweaks to hourly fields, but otherwise the fcst is on
track. A mixture of sun and clouds for today, with more sun
than clouds overall. The winds will be light as weak high
pressure drifts offshore. Temperatures will be right around
normal for this time of the year, with most spots further west
getting into the lower 50s, with upper 40s most elsewhere.
Clouds increase late today and this evening. Clouds will lower and
thicken late this evening and closer to midnight as warm advection
ensues with attention turning to a frontal boundary off to the west
as low pressure begins to develop down to our south. Northern stream
energy looks to begin to phase with energy moving across the Gulf
and States. This will lead to a strong baroclinic zone forming off
to our west. The trough deepens into Saturday morning with anomalous
height falls approaching the area. Look for precipitation in the
liquid form to develop just after midnight, as some drizzle and
light rain. As better forcing takes shape towards daybreak the
steadier rain will move in from the south and southwest. Look for
low temperatures to be mainly in the middle 30s north and west, to
the lower and middle 40s further south and east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday morning the low begins to deepen along the frontal
boundary quickly as it lifts north-northeast and right through and
just east of Long Island by later in the day as a 980 mb low. By all
accounts from the global deterministic guidance and ensemble members
it will be a fairly quick mover. Temperatures will be mild enough
that precip is to be mostly in the from of plain rain, at least
through much of the event for the city and coastal areas. However
for western areas like in Orange County where a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued, temperatures will fall shortly after
sunrise, especially towards the mid to late morning. Here, the snow
will change briefly to sleet / ice pellets, then quickly to snow.
The snow will likely come down heavily for a few hours before the
snow growth region begins to dry out. For a 3 to 4 hour period is
where 2 to 4 inches of snow is likely, and a bit further east across
the Lower Hudson Valley and western NE New Jersey up to a couple of
inches is likely. The colder air will come rushing in quickly, thus
after raining and then turning to snow the roadways will likely
freeze fairly quickly as in situations where it rains first it is
difficult for treatment to work quickly enough. Thus thought it
prudent to at least to carry the advisory for Orange County, and
hold off for now for the neighboring counties to the east like
Putnam and Passaic Counties. As the precip changes to snow it will
only be a couple of hours later that the snow growth zone drys out,
with lighter snowfall thereafter. Thus for now I don't think a
warning level snowfall will occur for northwestern areas. Also, at
least for now I am thinking that the temperature wave will lag the
pressure wave just enough that this will not be a classic flash
freeze situation as temperatures are not currently forecast to fall
quickly enough while it is precipitating, but this will have to
continue to be evaluated in future forecast packages. Even the city
and coast will change to a brief period of sleet and then to snow
for an hour or two before the precipitation tapers off later in the
afternoon. An inch of snow is the current thinking for the city, and
perhaps even less than that heading east as the mid and upper levels
dry out as the colder air rushes in and any lift goes to the
northeast and exits. With the majority of the precipitation falling
as rain, look for around an inch of rain on average with this system
with perhaps northeastern sections getting closer a bit more. The
heaviest portion of the rain will take place during Saturday
morning, and then exiting northeastern sections late in the
afternoon and early evening.
The winds will be an issue with this storm system as the storm
deepens rapidly. When the low gets north of Maine, a lot of the
guidance has the pressure getting down around 960 mb. The pressure
gradient will be tight and the winds will become rather gusty, and
possibly strong later in the day and into the evening. The strongest
gusts are likely late in the evening and towards midnight with rapid
pressure rises and the upper level trough axis pivoting through with
deep cold mixing supporting gusts to around 45 mph. Held off on wind
advisories for the time being with the winds being marginal for an
advisory. Skies will clear quickly after midnight as temperatures
drop to unseasonably cold levels. Late at night wind chill values
will get into the single digits across the entire area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Intense low pressure well up into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday
morning will continue to slowly pull away from the area while high
pressure builds to the south. Global models have the low dropping
well below 950 mb on Sunday. Behind it, an unseasonably cold airmass
will be in place with highs in the 30s on Sunday and a gradually
subsiding westerly flow. Gusts in the morning will likely start off
in the 30 to 40 mph range, falling off to 25 to 30 mph in the
afternoon. Winch chills will rise through the teens in the morning
and into the 20s in the afternoon. This will be a fleeting cold
airmass as the northern branch upper trough lifts out into the north
Atlantic, while the southern branch becomes dominant across the
Lower 48 heading into the upcoming week.
Surface high pressure to the south will work offshore Sunday night
into Monday with a warm front passing to the NW. SW winds will warm
temperatures up by about 10 degrees Sunday night, with lows much
closer to normal. Highs will then warm up well into the 50s by
Tuesday with the exception of immediate coastal locations,
especially across eastern lI and SE CT, where a SW flow will be
coming off the much cooler waters.
A weak cold front passes through late Tuesday afternoon/evening
(trend has been slower the last 24h). Some of the guidance is
showing light precipitation behind the boundary, mainly north of the
area. Plan to maintain a dry forecast until we see more run to run
continuity. High pressure more or less bridges across the front
Tuesday night into Wednesday as it washes out. Airmass may be
slightly cooler as winds become more easterly as low pressure over
the deep south begins to lift northward. The latter feature is where
global models are having some disagreement with how quickly and how
far north the low gets in the Wednesday into Thursday timeframe. At
this time, have only introduced a slight chance of rain Thursday,
mainly at the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong frontal system approaches from the west through this
evening. Low pressure develops along this front tonight and
intensify as it moves across and just to the east on Saturday.
VFR through this evening. IFR/LIFR develops overnight with some
drizzle or light rain possible along the immediate coast. A
steadier rain develops from south to north early Saturday
morning and becomes moderate to locally heavy around or just
after 12z. The rain should then transition to a mixture of sleet
and/or snow from west to east across the Lower Hudson Valley
through the rest of the morning. This transition should then
make it towards the NYC metro around midday. The precipitation
then ends as a period of snow into the middle of the afternoon
before ending. Further east across Long Island and Southern
Connecticut, rain is expected until late morning when a
transition to sleet may occur by midday and could end as light
snow in the afternoon.
KSWF has the potential for a light to moderate snowfall with 2
to 3 inches of accumulation. Elsewhere, mainly an inch or less
of snow/sleet accumulation.
S-SE winds under 10 kt through this evening. Winds slowly back
to the E and NE into early Saturday morning then shift to the NW
12-16z from west to east. Winds will rapidly increase after the
wind shift to the NW becoming 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt,
highest in the afternoon and evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence in timing of IFR or possibly LIFR conditions this
evening. It could occur closer to 00z or it could be delayed 1-3
hours from TAF.
Amendments likely for timing of precipitation type transitions
Saturday morning.
Amendments likely for timing of wind shift to the NW Saturday
morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sat PM...Any rain becomes a wintry mix of snow/sleet before
ending late afternoon. IFR or lower improves to VFR late. NW
winds gusts 35-45 kt possible late afternoon through the night.
.Sun...VFR with gusty W winds around 25-30 kt, mainly in the
morning.
.Mon-Wed...VFR..
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through tonight. Then
deepening low pressure passes through the waters on Saturday. Winds
will ramp up quickly very late tonight into Saturday morning, with
the winds turning north, then becoming northwest towards the
afternoon across all waters. This is when winds really become gusty
and strong. A Gale Warning is in effect for all waters for the late
morning on Saturday right through Sunday morning. Storm force wind
gusts are a possibility, especially for the eastern half of the
ocean waters and possibly the Eastern and South Shore bays of Long
Island and the eastern portions of LI Sound.
Gale gusts will remain likely early Sunday morning with winds and
gusts diminishing from west to east. The gale warning may need to be
extended further into Sunday morning. Once gale force winds
diminish a period of SCA conditions will be possible into Sunday
night, especially on the ocean waters. A WSW flow could allow
seas around 5 ft to linger into Monday on the eastern ocean
water, otherwise sub advisory conditions are expected Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A strong frontal system with intensifying low pressure has the
potential to bring precipitation on the order of an inch to an inch
and a half of water equivalent very late tonight into the day on
Saturday. Some of the precipitation will be in the frozen form on
the back side, especially for western areas. At this time hydrologic
impacts are expected to be minimal as the storm is expected to move
through quickly and exit by late Saturday afternoon, along with some
of the precipitation being in the frozen form.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
NYZ067.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 AM EST Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DWHazardous weather outlook, Mar 11, 4:00 AM EST, 11 hours 4 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 400 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179-120900- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 400 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. NYZ067-120900- Orange- 400 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-120900- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 400 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.
The office that day
Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 3:42 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | OKX | Orange | 11 hr |
| Mar 11, 3:46 AM EST | Gale Warning | OKX | 54 hr | |
| Mar 11, 3:07 PM EST | Winter Storm Warning | OKX | Orange | 28 hr |
| Mar 11, 3:07 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | OKX | Bronx, Kings, New York, Putnam, Queens, Richmond and 2 more | 28 hr |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in New York, 2022Wind Advisories in New Jersey, 2022Wind Advisories in Connecticut, 2022Every wind advisory in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.