Storm Warning 2, NWS New York, NY

749 
WHUS71 KOKX 282025
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
325 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

ANZ340-345-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0014.220129T0600Z-220129T1100Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.GL.W.0008.220129T1100Z-220130T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.SR.W.0002.220129T1100Z-220130T0000Z/
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
325 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, north winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts
  up to 50 kt and waves 2 to 4 feet expected. For the Small Craft
  Advisory, northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  and waves 1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...The south shore and eastern bays of Long Island.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, from 1 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0008.220129T0600Z-220129T1100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0002.220129T1100Z-220130T0000Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
325 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 3 to 6 feet expected. For the Storm 
  Warning, north winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and 
  seas 6 to 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 1 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday. 
  For the Storm Warning, from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ331-335-338-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0014.220129T0600Z-220129T1100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0008.220129T1100Z-220130T0600Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
325 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts
  up to 45 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet expected. For the Small Craft
  Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound west of the Orient Point and the 
  Connecticut River, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST 
  Sunday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 1 AM to 6 AM EST 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ332-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0014.220129T0600Z-220129T1100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0002.220129T1100Z-220130T0000Z/
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
325 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, north winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 55 kt and seas 3 to 6 feet expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, northeast winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  40 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound east of Orient Point and the 
  Connecticut River.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, from 1 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

902 
WHUS71 KOKX 290334
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1034 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

ANZ332-340-345-291645-
/O.EXB.KOKX.GL.W.0008.220129T0334Z-220129T1100Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.SC.Y.0014.220129T0600Z-220129T1100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0002.220129T1100Z-220130T0000Z/
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
1034 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, north winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 50 kt and seas 4 to 7 feet expected. For the Gale 
  Warning, northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt 
  and seas 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The south shore and eastern bays of Long Island, and 
  Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. 
  For the Gale Warning, until 6 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-291645-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0008.220129T0334Z-220129T1100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0002.220129T1100Z-220130T0000Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1034 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 3 to 6 feet expected. For the Storm 
  Warning, north winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and 
  seas 6 to 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. 
  For the Gale Warning, until 6 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ331-335-338-291645-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0014.220129T0334Z-220129T1100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0008.220129T1100Z-220130T0600Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
1034 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 20 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet expected. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  and seas 1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound west of the Orient Point and the 
  Connecticut River, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST 
  Sunday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

037 
WHUS71 KOKX 290841
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
341 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

ANZ332-340-345-350-353-355-292145-
/O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220129T1100Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.SR.W.0002.220129T0841Z-220130T0000Z/
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
341 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...North winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 
  6 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm, Long 
  Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River, 
  Peconic and Gardiners Bays, and South Shore Bays from Jones 
  Inlet through Shinnecock Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ331-335-338-292145-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-220129T1100Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0008.220129T0841Z-220130T0600Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
341 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 
  3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound west of the Orient Point and the 
  Connecticut River, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

006 
WHUS71 KOKX 292116
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
416 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

ANZ331-335-338-301030-
/O.NEW.KOKX.UP.Y.0003.220129T2116Z-220130T1700Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220130T0600Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
416 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet. For the Freezing Spray 
  Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound west of the Orient Point and the 
  Connecticut River, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 1 AM EST Sunday. For the 
  Freezing Spray Advisory, until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous.
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may
  result in some loss of stability. Strong winds will cause
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for accumulation of ice on their vessel
and consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous
navigating conditions.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ332-340-350-353-355-301030-
/O.NEW.KOKX.UP.Y.0003.220129T2116Z-220130T1700Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
416 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, northwest winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 50 kt and seas 7 to 12 feet. For the Freezing 
  Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm, Long 
  Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River, and 
  Peconic and Gardiners Bays.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, until 7 PM EST this evening. For 
  the Freezing Spray Advisory, until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous.
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may
  result in some loss of stability. Very strong winds will cause
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for accumulation of ice on their vessel
and consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous
navigating conditions.

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ345-300000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
416 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt.

* WHERE...South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

716 
WHUS71 KOKX 300006
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
706 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

ANZ332-340-350-353-355-301315-
/O.EXP.KOKX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220130T0600Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.UP.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220130T1700Z/
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
706 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 25 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 7 to 10 feet. For the Freezing 
  Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm, Long 
  Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River, and 
  Peconic and Gardiners Bays.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 1 AM EST Sunday. For the 
  Freezing Spray Advisory, until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Strong winds will cause 
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and 
  reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for accumulation of ice on their vessel
and consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous
navigating conditions.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ345-300600-
/O.EXP.KOKX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220130T0600Z/
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
706 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.
 
* WHERE...The Long Island south shore bays.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ331-335-338-301315-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220130T0600Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.UP.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220130T1700Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
706 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with
  gusts up to 35 kt. For the Freezing Spray Advisory, moderate 
  accumulation of freezing spray.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound west of the Orient Point and the 
  Connecticut River, and New York Harbor.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 1 AM EST Sunday. For the 
  Freezing Spray Advisory, until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in freezing spray is hazardous. 
  Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic components 
  inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may 
  result in some loss of stability. Strong winds will cause 
  hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and 
  reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for accumulation of ice on their vessel
and consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous
navigating conditions.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1232 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the northeast coast tonight into Friday.
A weakening cold front approaches from the northwest during
Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure develops off the Carolina coast
late Friday and then rapidly deepens through Saturday night as
it tracks east of New England. High pressure returns Sunday and
continues into early next week. A low pressure and associated
fronts approach the region toward the end of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Forecast is on track this morning. Have adjusted temps and dew
points to better match current obs. Lingering cloud cover over
Long Island has prevented temperatures from dropping off too
much in most places through the first half of the night, thus
bumped up overnight lows in these areas.

A leading northern stream upper trough and shortwave approach
tonight, moving into eastern Canada by 12Z Friday. Meanwhile,
another shortwave will be moving into the upper trough late
tonight, allowing the trough to amplify. The initial shortwave
will be accompanied by a cold front, however, with the trough
well to the north during Friday, the cold front will be
weakening, becoming more of a surface trough by Friday
afternoon. While there is some moisture with the frontal.trough
boundary, lift is weak, and not in the ideal snow growth zone.
As result, there will be a slight chance of light snow, or snow
showers with the trough during Friday.

By early Friday evening the upper trough will become more
amplified and will be into the southeast. Surface low pressure
begins to develop off the Carolina coast and rapidly deepen. The
front will be interacting with the developing low and light snow
will become likely by late Friday night.

Rapid deepening of the low continues late Friday night with the
low off the mid Atlantic. Strong lift and mainly in the snow
growth zone will allow for the snow to begin to become moderate
toward Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Complex scenario involving the large winter storm forecast to
develop off the East Coast on Saturday. NWP guidance coming into
clearer focus regarding the multiple shortwaves involved in
carving out the deep closed low over the eastern US on Fri
night, one from near the Four Corners region and nrn stream
energy across central and northern Canada, inducing rapid
development of a weak sfc low already in place E of Florida. As
far as global models go, ECMWF is quicker to phase a final
potent shortwave diving out of central Canada than the GFS,
leading to formation of a closed low over VA/NC more quickly Fri
night, and a low track closer to the coast daytime Sat. GFS
placement of its sfc low looks too far east given placement of
its own potent forcing aloft as well. A slight westward trend
also noted in the 12Z guidance, and as a result have increased
snowfall amts an inch or two, using a 2:1 blend of non-GFS
guidance with the previous forecast to maintain some continuity.
This warrants expansion of winter storm watches back a little
farther into most of the west of the CWA, including all zones
except Orange and W Passaic.

As previously mentioned, a dual upper jet structure at
250/300mb as the upper low closes off will be present, a
characteristic of heavy Northeast snowfall events. With high
pressure to the north and cold air in place, the ingredients are
set for a significant snowfall event for parts of the Northeast
this weekend.

The initial surface low off the SE coast will rapidly deepen E
of NC late Fri night into daytime Sat, passing S of the 40N/70W
benchmark while moving NE, but then cutting back N as the sfc
low occludes and develops a warm seclusion (another feature not
early as prominent in the GFS, also suggesting its sfc low
position may be too far east).

Strongest H-7 frontogenetic forcing NW of the low will likely
move into Long Island and CT from the south Sat morning and then
pivot before moving E later in the day, leading to snowfall
totals of about 10-14 inches over this area. Farther to the
west, totals should drop off to 6-10 inches across western Long
Island/CT, and then about 5-7 inches in areas north/west of NYC.

Winds will also be an issue as the system nears the area on
Saturday as strong NE-NE flow dominates. Gusts 45-55 mph are
likely for a period Saturday afternoon across ern Long Island
and SE CT, which combined with expected duration of heavy snow,
could lead to blizzard conditions, and 40-45 mph farther west,
with near blizzard conditions across western Long Island and
much of the rest of southern CT.

Snow will begin to taper off during Saturday afternoon from
west to east, with cold air advecting in behind the system.
Temps on Sat from the upper teens to mid 20s early Sat morning
should steadily fall during the late morning and afternoon, and
lows Sat night should be in the single digits and teens, with a
gusty NW flow producing wind chills as low as 5 below in the NYC
metro area/coast, and around 10 below inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions dry on Sunday as our storm system continues into the
Canadian Maritimes. Winds will remain on the breezy side,
particularly early in the day, with a tight pressure gradient as the
storm departs. The unseasonably cold air also remains, with a fresh
snowpack helping to limit surface heating during the afternoon.

An upper trough axis swings through on Monday with limited moisture,
so another dry day is anticipated with high temperatures near
the freezing mark. Heights begin to rise on Tuesday as ridging
builds across the Eastern US and temperatures climb above normal
into midweek.

PoPs increase on Wednesday with a storm system and its associated
fronts approaching the region. Moisture convergence along the
cold front should allow for a period of precipitation as it
moves through toward mid-to-late next week. While specifics like
timing and amounts will still need to be resolved, the building
ridge and onshore flow ahead of the system should allow for a
wet, rather than white, event for the entire region. Capped PoPs
at chance for now, given the temporal and spatial disagreement.
Otherwise, stuck close to the NBM for this update.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weakening cold front approaches overnight. A coastal storm
approaches later today into Friday night.

VFR for the overnight, with MVFR ceilings possible by late
morning towards 15z or so. Prevailing MVFR conditions are more
likely closer to 17-18z for the city terminals. Some light snow
/ snow showers is possible and was handled with PROB30 for now
as confidence of occurrence remains low at this time. A brief
improvement to VFR is likely towards 22-0z, but MVFR may linger
as confidence remains low as much of Friday afternoon and
evening will be on the line between MVFR and VFR. For the city
terminals snow from the coastal storm develops towards 4-6z. The
timing of the onset of snow developing Friday night is low
confidence.

Winds will be light overnight, then W by Friday morning. Winds
then turn N by 21z Friday. The winds start to increase late
Friday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are possible approaching towards 12z Fri with the low
chance of light snow / snow showers developing which could result in
a change in flight category.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Friday night...Snow develops late with mostly MVFR conditions,
with IFR conditions likely towards morning.
.Saturday...Snow develops late Friday night with IFR or lower
conditions. N winds increasing to around 20G with gusts 30 to 40 kt.
Still some uncertainty, but there is the potential for runway snow
accumulations of 6-9 inches mainly from the city terminals and
greater than 9 inches for eastern terminals. Stronger winds are
possible too, with LLWS.
.Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW gusts to 25kt possible AM.
.Monday...VFR with light winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels across the
forecast waters tonight through Friday evening. As a low develops
off the Carolina coast and rapidly deepens while tracking to
the north Friday night, winds and seas will be increasing on the
ocean waters, reaching SCA levels early Friday evening. By late
Friday night gale gusts will likely on the ocean waters, and a
gale waring is in effect. Across the non ocean waters SCA
conditions will be likely, with the potential for gale gusts
across the eastern Sound and eastern bays toward Saturday
morning. A SCA is n effect late Friday night for the non ocean
waters.

Then given a forecast position of the intense sfc low closer to
the area on Sat, have issued a storm watch for the ocean waters
for daytime Sat, for NE-N winds gusting 50-55 kt, highest east.
Gales should continue Sat night on all waters as winds back NW
and slowly diminish.

Marginal SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters
Sunday, slowly improving through the day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Friday.

A strong low pressure system passing offshore could bring
significant precipitation to the area Friday night into Saturday
night.

River ice continues to increase due to the persistent cold. The
Wallkill River at Gardiner may be impacted by ice.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The 75th percentile of the Stevens is preferred for this surge
forecast due to its forcing by a 100 member multi-model
ensemble. The GFS based ETSS and ESTOFS are likely too low
based on the eastern most storm track of the GFS.

N/NNE winds are not ideal for major surge events, but combined
with wave action, potential for minor to locally moderate
coastal impacts exits for the vulnerable north shore communities
of the twin forks of LI, north shore of LI, and north facing
LI barrier island communities for the Sat AM/PM, and Sun AM
high tides. Elsewhere generally just localized minor coastal
impacts during Sat AM/PM high tides due to strong northerly
flow.

Sunday AM high tides may be the highest water levels,
particularly in the bay areas despite NW flow, due to Ekman
pumping. More widespread minor impacts possible for south shore
bay areas of LI with this tide.

In terms of shoreline impacts, ocean surf should build to 4 to
8 ft Sat PM into Sun AM, with scattered dune erosion impacts for
Sun AM high tide. With orthogonal swell energy and water levels
limited, the beachfront washover threat appears to be low and
localized. 3 to 5 ft surf likely for north shore of LI and north
shore of south fork shorefront with Sat AM and PM tides, which
will likely cause beach erosion and possibly minor damage to
shoreline structures.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Saturday evening
     for CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Saturday evening
     for NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Saturday evening
     for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BG/DR/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
433 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

CTZ005>012-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179-281100-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
433 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NJZ002-NYZ067-281100-
Western Passaic-Orange-
433 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is potential for a low pressure system to bring heavy snowfall
and high winds Friday night into Saturday night. Uncertainty remains
with the exact track of this storm and therefore its impacts, which
should be refined over the next 24 to 36 hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-281100-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
433 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ350-353-355-281100-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
433 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY...
...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.