Alert archive / New York / Blizzard Warnings in 2022

Blizzard Warning 1, NWS New York, NY

January 28, 2022Suffolk County, New York; Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut

NWS New York, NY issued this blizzard warning at Jan 28, 2022, 9:59 AM EST for Suffolk County, New York; Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut. It took effect at Jan 28, 2022, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 24 hr. 60 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 28, 2022, 9:59 AM EST (14:59 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 28, 2022, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 29, 2022, 7:00 PM EST
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS New York, NY

Counties Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Suffolk County, NY

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 29, 12:00 AM ESTSNOW 2Mattituck, NY
Jan 29, 12:00 AM ESTSNOW 2Mount Sinai, NY
Jan 29, 1:00 AM ESTSNOW 3Upton, NY
Jan 29, 2:45 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 61 Nw Islip, NY
Jan 29, 4:24 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 71 Nw Babylon, NY
Jan 29, 5:30 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 10Bay Shore, NY
Jan 29, 6:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 7Mount Sinai, NY
Jan 29, 6:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 91 Se Ridge, NYCOCORAHS STATION NY-SF-127 RIDGE 1.5 SE.
Jan 29, 6:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 9.3Islip, NY
Jan 29, 6:30 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 10Commack, NYSOCIAL MEDIA.
Jan 29, 6:30 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 10.4Bay Shore, NY
Jan 29, 7:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 71 N Bridgehampton, NYCO-OP OBSERVER STATION BDGN6 BRIDGEHAMPTON.
Jan 29, 7:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 91 Nnw Brightwaters, NYCOCORAHS STATION NY-SF-73 BRIGHTWATERS.
Jan 29, 7:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 9Upton, NY
Jan 29, 7:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 10.21 Ese Bay Shore, NYCOCORAHS STATION NY-SF-34 BAY SHORE.
Jan 29, 7:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 10.3Islip Airport, NY
Jan 29, 7:30 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 9.5Sound Beach, NYCORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM SOUND BEACH.
Jan 29, 7:30 AM ESTSNOW 9.5Sound Beach, NY
Jan 29, 7:30 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 9.6Sayville, NY
Jan 29, 7:30 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 10Shirley, NY
Jan 29, 7:50 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 8.13 Ene Sag Harbor, NY
Jan 29, 8:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 81 Nne Brightwaters, NYCOCORAHS STATION NY-SF-129 BRIGHTWATERS.
Jan 29, 8:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 11.6Centereach, NY
Jan 29, 8:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 12Orient, NY
Jan 29, 8:25 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 9Deer Park, NY
Jan 29, 8:30 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 8.1Jamesport, NY
Jan 29, 8:30 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 8.5Amityville, NY
Jan 29, 8:45 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 7.5Port Jefferson Station, NYCOCORAHS STATION NY-SF-100 PORT JEFFERSON STATION.
Jan 29, 8:45 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 12.1Riverhead, NY
Jan 29, 8:45 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 131 W Blue Point, NY
Jan 29, 8:55 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 111 Ssw Nesconset, NYCOCORAHS STATION NY-SF-77 NESCONSET.
Jan 29, 8:55 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 13.2Saint James, NY
Jan 29, 9:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 10.9East Northport, NY
Jan 29, 9:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 11.4Smithtown, NY
Jan 29, 9:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 13.5North Babylon, NY
Jan 29, 9:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 14Riverhead, NY
Jan 29, 9:15 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 12.5Farmingville, NY
Jan 29, 9:30 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 12.5Farmingville, NY
Jan 29, 9:50 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 11Islip, NY
Jan 29, 10:00 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 15Islip Airport, NY2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATE FROM 8 AM TO 10 AM.
Jan 29, 10:06 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 14.8Smithtown, NY
Jan 29, 10:20 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 14.8Remsenburg, NY
Jan 29, 11:10 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 11.7Dix Hills, NY
Jan 29, 11:30 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 14.5Shoreham, NY
Jan 29, 11:45 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 16.2Commack, NY
Jan 29, 11:50 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 15Commack, NY
Jan 29, 12:00 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 18.5North Babylon, NY
Jan 29, 12:05 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 13.8East Northport, NY
Jan 29, 12:20 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 12.8Deer Park, NY
Jan 29, 12:20 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 17.8Centereach, NY
Jan 29, 12:30 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 17.3Farmingville, NY
Jan 29, 12:30 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 18Orient, NY
Jan 29, 1:00 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 14.3Riverhead, NY
Jan 29, 1:00 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 14.7Upton, NY
Jan 29, 1:00 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 22.4Islip Airport, NY
Jan 29, 1:03 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 17.5Sayville, NY
Jan 29, 1:30 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 17Saint James, NY
Jan 29, 1:35 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 15Islip, NY
Jan 29, 1:45 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 18.5Bay Shore, NY
Jan 29, 1:50 PM ESTHEAVY SNOW 16.1East Hampton, NY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2022-01-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2022-01-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 60 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
913 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
120 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

333 
WWUS41 KOKX 281459
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
959 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-282200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.W.0002.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
959 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 11 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern New London and Southern New 
  London Counties. In New York, Northeast Suffolk and Southeast 
  Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Strong 
  winds could cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected Saturday
  morning into early Saturday afternoon. White out conditions are
  likely at times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ078-080-282200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.W.0002.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
959 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 11 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest Suffolk and Southwest Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected Saturday
  morning into early Saturday afternoon. White out conditions are
  likely at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ068>070-282200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-
Rockland-Northern Westchester-
959 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Western Passaic County.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176-178-282200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
959 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Near blizzard 
  conditions are possible for a period on Saturday.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will become be very difficult. Gusty winds 
  could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibilities may be reduced to 1/4 mile or
  less at times Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ006-007-010-011-NYZ177-179-282200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
959 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 
  14 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Near blizzard 
  conditions are possible for a period on Saturday.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New 
  York.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will become very difficult to impossible. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibilities may be reduced to 1/4 mile or
  less at times Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ067-282200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Orange-
959 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Orange County.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc
5 follow-up statements
505 
WWUS41 KOKX 282031
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

NYZ078-080-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 12 to 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest Suffolk and Northwest Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected Saturday
  morning into early Saturday afternoon. White out conditions are
  likely at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 13 to 17 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern New London and Southern New 
  London Counties. In New York, Southeast Suffolk and Northeast 
  Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Strong 
  winds could cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected Saturday
  morning into early Saturday afternoon. White out conditions are
  likely at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ068>070-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-
Rockland-Northern Westchester-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New 
  York.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176-178-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Near blizzard 
  conditions are possible for a period on Saturday.


* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibilities may be reduced to 1/4 mile or
  less at times Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ006-007-010-011-NYZ177-179-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 12
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Near blizzard 
  conditions are possible for a period on Saturday.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New 
  York.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibilities may be reduced to 1/4 mile or
  less at times Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ067-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Orange-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Orange County.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc
460 
WWUS41 KOKX 290850
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
350 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

NYZ078-080-292000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
350 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 9 
  to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest Suffolk and Northwest Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected this
  morning into early this afternoon. White out conditions are 
  likely at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-292000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
350 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 
  11 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern New London and Southern New 
  London Counties. In New York, Southeast Suffolk and Northeast 
  Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Strong 
  winds could cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected this
  morning into early this afternoon. White out conditions are
  likely at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ068>070-292000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-
Rockland-Northern Westchester-
350 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 7 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New 
  York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Strong 
  winds could cause tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176-178-292000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
350 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ006-007-010-011-NYZ177-179-292000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
350 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 11 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New 
  York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ067-292000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Orange-
350 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Orange County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc
553 
WWUS41 KOKX 291525
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1025 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

NYZ078-080-292330-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
1025 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 5 
  to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest Suffolk and Northwest Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected this
  morning into early this afternoon. White out conditions are 
  likely at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-292330-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
1025 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 6 
  to 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern New London and Southern New 
  London Counties. In New York, Southeast Suffolk and Northeast 
  Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected this
  morning into early this afternoon. White out conditions are 
  likely at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-103>108-NYZ068>070-292330-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-
Rockland-Northern Westchester-
1025 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New 
  York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Strong 
  winds could cause tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176-178-292330-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
1025 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut 
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Gusty winds could bring
  down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ006-007-010-011-NYZ177-179-292330-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
1025 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New 
  York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Gusty winds could bring
  down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ067-292330-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Orange-
1025 AM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Orange County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc
615 
WWUS41 KOKX 292110
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
410 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069-072>075-176-178-292215-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Rockland-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
410 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Snow has ended across the region. However, there will continue to
be areas of blowing and drifting snow into tonight.

$$

NYZ067-292215-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Orange-
410 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow has ended across the region.

$$

NYZ078-080-300000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
410 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 3
  to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest Suffolk and Northwest Suffolk Counties in New
  York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Strong 
  winds could cause tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-300000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
410 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 4
  to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern New London and Southern New 
  London Counties. In New York, Southeast Suffolk and Northeast 
  Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Strong 
  winds could cause tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ068-070-300000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Putnam-Northern Westchester-
410 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Putnam and Northern Westchester Counties in New York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-009-NYZ071-300000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Southern Westchester-
410 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Fairfield County Connecticut and Southern Westchester 
  County in New York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ006-007-010-011-NYZ177-179-300000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
410 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...New Haven and Middlesex Counties in Connecticut. Nassau
  County in New York.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc
929 
WWUS41 KOKX 300003
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
703 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

CTZ008-012-NYZ078>081-300115-
/O.EXP.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
703 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The back of the light snow across the area will exit to the east
over the next couple of hours. An accumulation of an inch or less
is possible. 

There will be areas of blowing snow and drifting snow tonight. 
This will cause reductions in visibility and could extend into 
roadways. Hazardous travel will remain possible.


$$

CTZ005>007-009>011-NYZ068-070-071-177-179-300115-
/O.EXP.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Putnam-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-Northern Nassau-
Southern Nassau-
703 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

There will be areas of blowing snow and drifting snow tonight. 
This will cause reductions in visibility and could extend into 
roadways. Hazardous travel will remain possible.


$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this blizzard warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard warning went out at Jan 28, 9:21 AM EST, 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 28, 9:21 AM EST, 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
921 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front approaches from the northwest today.
Low pressure then develops off the Carolina coast Friday night
and then rapidly deepens through Saturday night as it tracks
east of New England. High pressure then builds from the west
Sunday into early next week. High pressure returns Sunday and
continues into early next week. A low pressure and associated
fronts approach the region toward the end of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is mainly on track this morning with minor updates to
reflect current observations. KOKX radar is showing some light
returns over northeast NJ. But with sfc dewpoint depressions in
the 15-20 degree range, it does not appear to be reaching the
ground. Have adjusted PoPs and wx grids to reflect this.

A leading northern stream upper trough and shortwave will move
into eastern Canada early this morning. The shortwave will be
accompanied by a cold front, however, with the trough well to
the north during Friday, the cold front will weakening as it
moves over the region.

Forecast guidance is showing some light snow possible during the day
today with this feature. However, there isn't much moisture to work
with and lift remains fairly weak. As a result, will continue to
carry low chance POPs.

Highs today will be in the lower to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
***High Impact Coastal System Expected This Weekend***

Attention then turns to the system that will impact the area late
tonight into Saturday afternoon. Confidence is higher tonight that a
strong area of low pressure will impact the area over the next few
days, bringing heavy snow, strong and gusty winds and coastal
flooding. Model spread has decreased somewhat since this time last
night, however, and there has been a westward shift in the track of
the sfc/700mb low for some of the model systems that have remained
well east of the 40/70 benchmark.

Model guidance is in good agreement, generally, that upper ridging
builds over the western CONUS as PAC NW energy is shunted down over
the central Plains within a broader longwave trough over the east.
The trough deepens tonight over the OH Valley, becomes negatively
titled by Saturday morning, over the Mid Atlantic, and closes off
just east of Long Island by late Saturday. In fact, a dual jet
structure is noted at 250/300mb as the low closes off,
characteristic of heavy northeast snowfall events. With all this in
mind, the ingredients are set for a significant northeast snowfall
event.

Surface low pressure still progged to develop off the southeast
coast and deepen this evening as it moves northeast into Saturday.
The deterministic models and their respective ensembles have jogged
back west overnight, including the GFS and GEFS, which in previous
cycles had been clustered on the eastern end of the track envelope.
There is better consensus now of a track south and east of Long
Island just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark.

With the continued shift back to the west, and resultant QPF has
increased slightly overall especially across southern CT and Long
Island, with a widespread 1-1.5 inches here, and less than an inch
from NYC north and west.  A model consensus was used for QPF, minus
the 00Z NAM. As a result, have increased snow amounts across the
board, with 12-16" across Long Island and southeast CT, 8-10" for
NYC and southwestern CT, and 3-6" elsewhere.  It should be noted
that an area of mesoscale snow banding is highly likely with
this system, especially across eastern sections of the CWA.
Within this zone, higher snowfall is possible along with
enhanced snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour for a few hours. Recent
CAMs are highlighting eastern LI and extreme SE CT as having
the highest probability of occurrence of these bands pivoting
near the upper low. Of course, should later guidance continue to
shift west, this threat would also shift west.

Have converted all winter weather watches to warnings,
and issued a winter weather advisory for Orange County, NY with all
this in mind. In addition, have elected to hold off on any blizzard
headlines at this time for eastern LI and southern CT, the areas
that are most likely to meet blizzard criteria. Given the increased
forecast confidence in only these latest runs, would prefer one more
cycle for that upgrade. Regardless, near blizzard conditions are
possible for eastern LI and southern CT for a period on Saturday
afternoon with this system.

Winds will also be an issue as the system nears the area as strong
northeast flow dominates as the system deepens in our vicinity. Gusts
to 35-45 mph are likely for a period Saturday afternoon, especially
for the coastal areas, where occasionally higher gusts are possible.
So near blizzard conditions are possible, especially near the coast,
where winds/gusts will be most frequent.

Snow will begin to taper by Saturday afternoon from west to east,
with cold air advecting in behind the system. Temps on Sat from
the upper teens to mid 20s early Sat morning should steadily
fall during the late morning and afternoon, and lows Sat night
should be in the single digits and teens, with a gusty NW flow
producing wind chills as low as 5 below in the NYC metro
area/coast, and around 10 below inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes made in the long term overnight.

Conditions dry on Sunday as our storm system continues into the
Canadian Maritimes. Winds will remain on the breezy side,
particularly early in the day, with a tight pressure gradient as the
storm departs. The unseasonably cold air also remains, with a fresh
snowpack helping to limit surface heating during the afternoon.

An upper trough axis swings through on Monday with limited moisture,
so another dry day is anticipated with high temperatures near
the freezing mark. Heights begin to rise on Tuesday as ridging
builds across the Eastern US and temperatures climb above normal
into midweek.

PoPs increase on Wednesday with a storm system and its associated
fronts approaching the region. Moisture convergence along the
cold front should allow for a period of precipitation as it
moves through toward mid-to-late next week. While specifics like
timing and amounts will still need to be resolved, the building
ridge and onshore flow ahead of the system should allow for a
wet, rather than white, event for the entire region. Capped PoPs
at chance for now, given the temporal and spatial disagreement.
Otherwise, stuck close to the NBM for this update.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*High Impact Coastal System Expected Friday Night and Saturday*

A weakening cold moves into the area today. A coastal storm
approaches later today into tonight.

VFR with local MVFR in light snow for the first part of the
day, then cigs are expected to lower to MVFR conditions across
the area early this afternoon. Some light snow or snow showers
remain possible into the afternoon today. Will cover this with
a VCSH this afternoon as confidence of occurrence remains lower.

There may be a brief improvement to VFR towards 22-00z but cigs
will lower right back down to MVFR as the coastal storm starts
to move towards the region. For the city terminals snow from
the coastal storm develops towards 03-05z and gradually
increases in intensity through the morning hours. Winds will
also gradually increase overnight into Saturday morning, with
gusts into the 30kt range. After 12z, gusts at the NYC terminals
could reach 40-45kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for light snow / snow showers and changing
flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday...IFR or lower in snow. N winds increasing to around
20kt with gusts 30 to 45 kt. Gusts may be higher east of NYC.
LLWS possible, mainly east of NYC.

Expected Runway Accumulations:

KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR: 7-12 inches.
KISP/KGON: 12-16 inches.
KSWF: 3-5 inches

.Sunday night...Snow ending, becoming VFR. gusts into the 20kt
range.
.Sunday...VFR. NW gusts to 25kt possible AM.
.Monday...VFR with light winds.
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions are expected on all waters through today.

Low pressure develops off the Carolina coast and rapidly deepens
while tracking to the north Friday night.  As the low approaches,
winds and seas will be increasing on the ocean waters, reaching SCA
levels early Friday evening. By late Friday night gale gusts will
become likely on the ocean waters, and a gale warning is in effect.
Across the non ocean waters SCA conditions will be likely, with the
potential for gale gusts across the eastern Sound and eastern bays
toward Saturday morning. A SCA is n effect late Friday night for the
non ocean waters.

Given the westward shift in the model trends this cycle, have
upgraded the storm watch for the ocean waters and eastern LI marine
zone with NE-N winds gusting 50-55 kt. Gales should continue Sat
night on all waters as winds back NW and slowly diminish.

Marginal SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters Sunday,
slowly improving through the day. Sub-SCA conditions are expected
through the first part of the new week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Friday.

A strong low pressure system passing offshore could bring
significant precipitation to the area Friday night into Saturday
night.

No additional hydrologic impacts are expected into next week.

River ice continues to increase due to the persistent cold. The
Wallkill River at Gardiner may be impacted by ice.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The 50-75th percentile of the Stevens is preferred for this surge
forecast for most of the forecast area due to its forcing by a 100
member multi-model ensemble.

N/NNE winds are not ideal for major surge events, but combined with
wave action, potential for minor to locally moderate coastal impacts
exists for the vulnerable north shore communities of the twin forks
of LI and north shore of LI for the Sat AM high tide cycle, with
less of a threat for the Sat PM and Sun AM high tides. After
collaboration with WFO BOX, have decided to hold off an any
headlines and assess the next guidance cycle with the threat over
the Twin Forks region still 3 cycles away. With that said, there is
a good chance of at least widespread minor coastal flooding here Sat
AM, and trends will be monitored for a potential need for any
warnings here. Based on climatology with this setup, isolated
moderate flooding here would be more likely versus widespread.

Trend has been upward for the threat of minor coastal flooding for
the south shore back bays of Nassau and Queens for the Saturday
morning high tide cycle. Somewhat less of a chance and probably just
localized minor flooding is expected for coastal Westchester and
coastal Fairfield Counties. Would like to wait another guidance
cycle to see trends before settling on any other potential headlines.
Otherwise for the Sat AM cycle, statements for isolated minor
flooding could be needed - then less likely for the for Saturday PM
cycle.

For the Sunday AM high tide cycle, focus shifts more toward the
south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau County. Guidance suggests
a little better of a chance for widespread minor coastal flooding
here vs Saturday despite NW flow, due to Ekman pumping. Elsewhere on
Sunday, not expecting any flooding, but maybe some locations along
the north shore of LI could approach minor benchmarks due to piling.

In terms of shoreline impacts, ocean surf should build to 4 to
8 ft Sat PM into Sun AM, with scattered dune erosion impacts for
Sun AM high tide. With orthogonal swell energy and water levels
limited, the beachfront washover threat appears to be low and
localized. 3 to 5 ft surf likely for north shore of LI and north
shore of south fork shorefront with Sat AM and PM tides, which
will likely cause beach erosion and possibly minor damage to
shoreline structures.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ067.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-
     335-338-340-345.
     Storm Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ332-350-
     353-355.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BC/DBR
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/DS
MARINE...BC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 28, 3:36 AM EST, 6 hours 23 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
336 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179-290845-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
336 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ067-290845-
Orange-
336 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-335-338-340-345-290845-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
336 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ350-353-355-290845-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
336 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ332-290845-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
336 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 28, 3:19 AM ESTStorm WarningOKX40 hr
Jan 28, 3:21 AM ESTWinter Storm WarningOKXBronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Putnam, Queens and 4 more40 hr
Jan 28, 3:21 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryOKXOrange37 hr
Jan 28, 11:35 AM ESTCoastal Flood StatementOKXBronx, Queens, Westchester22 hr
Jan 28, 11:35 AM ESTCoastal Flood AdvisoryOKXNassau, Suffolk33 hr

Nearby

Blizzard Warnings in New York, 2022Blizzard Warnings in Connecticut, 2022Every blizzard warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.