Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
213 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will slowly continue north of the area, before a
cold front and pre-frontal trough pass through tonight. Weak
high pressure will then follow Tuesday into Wednesday. Another
warm front will lift through Wednesday night, followed by a weak
cold front Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure will
return Friday and Saturday. A frontal system may affect the
region Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
One batch of showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern
Connecticut and Twin Forks of Long Island will continue to move
east as the afternoon progresses, while another area of showers
and thunderstorms across northeast New Jersey and the Lower
Hudson Valley will affect those areas and progress northeast as
well during the afternoon. With dew points well into the 70s
across the tri-state, and some clearing of clouds to aid in
heating and further destabilizing the atmosphere, the potential
for severe storms across the western portion of the forecast
area has increased and thus SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch has been issued for all of the Northeast New Jersey, the
Lower Hudson Valley, New York City, Nassau, and Fairfield
counties until 10 pm. Damaging winds will be the main threat
with these storms. However a tornado or two may is not out of
the question. Additionally, heavy rain will be associated with
these storms, so flash flooding is also a possibility.

While the forcing is not all that strong, the MUCAPES across
the region range from 500-1000 J/KG inland to in excess of a
1000 J/KG at the coast. In addition, PW values in excess of 2
inches will work in from the SW this morning ahead a shortwave
trough working east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
states. The latter of which will send a warm front through the
area this morning, followed by a pre-frontal trough this
afternoon, and finally a weak cold frontal passage overnight.

Mid-level lapse rates are generally less than 6C and sunshine
will be limited to realize the full instability potential. Even
so, there is increasing deep-layer shear (35-40 kt) through this
afternoon with the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms.
SPC has placed the entire area under a Slight risk for severe
thunderstorms across NE New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley,
and Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms elsewhere,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The main threats
are damaging winds gusts and an isolated tornado. Furthermore,
WPC has much of the area under a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall and an even smaller corridor across NE NJ and the NYC
metro under a Slight Risk. So while this is a disjointed system,
there are the pieces for a localized severe and flash flood
threat.

Convection in association with the pre-frontal trough will
likely weaken as it approaches the coast with gusty south winds
(up to 30 mph) bringing in a more stable marine layer, and thus
eastern Long Island and south central and southeastern
Connecticut were not included in the thunderstorm watch. In
addition, we may have to watch out for any residual fog/stratus
boundaries behind the warm front this morning. Per the SPC HREF,
the NSSL WRF was more aggressive with a such a signal. 06Z
NAMnest though is really backing off on the activity this
morning significantly with the pre-frontal trough late this
afternoon being the main player to watch.

Any lingering showers or thunderstorms likely pass off the
coast during the early morning hours Tuesday.

As for rainfall amounts, while localized heavy rainfall can
happen almost anywhere today with any boundary, the higher mean
QPF values can be expected across the Lower Hudson Valley at an
1-1.5 inches, with significantly lower amounts at the coast.

Highs today will be near normal in the lower to mid 80s, warmest
across the NYC/NJ metro where there could be readings in the
upper 80s. It will also be incredibly humid with dew points in
the lower 70s.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with somewhat
drier air working in behind the cold front after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Behind the cold front, a deep-layered westerly flow and ridging
aloft will bring the first widespread heat wave to the area for
the midweek timeframe. 85h temps get to around 20C, This
combined with dew points well into the 60s will produce heat
index values in the 95 to 100 range. This looks to be more
isolated around the NYC/NJ metro on Tuesday, but then more
widespread Wednesday and Thursday. Heat advisories are becoming
increasingly likely as we get into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High heat and humidity continue into Thursday. With the
passage of a warm front Wednesday night there will be a chance
for showers and thunderstorms, especially across the interior
with the best frontal lift. A shortwave, pre frontal trough, and
a cold front will provide better upper support Thursday as the
air mass will become more unstable through the day.

Weak ridging builds Friday into Saturday with a warm and humid
airmass returning, and temperatures remaining above seasonal normals.
Another frontal system potentially impacts the area later Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front continues to slowly lift north of the airspace today.
A cold front then passes through tonight.

Largely unstable environment has allowed thunderstorms to
continue to redevelop with impacts expected through the evening.
The most significant coverage will be to the west as a broken
area of thunderstorms develops ahead of the cold front, reaching
the city terminals after 21Z. There will be stronger gust
potential with these storms. Convection generally diminishes in
the 03-05Z time frame.

There is some lingering stratus across eastern terminals,
particularly KISP, KBDR, and KGON. Some uncertainty exists on
the extent of possible clearing but at the moment seems more
likely to primarily stay in the IFR-MVFR range until the cold
front tonight.

ESE to S winds eventually increase and shift to S-SW 10-15G20kt
in the afternoon. Even higher at KJFK.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are possible to adjust timing/coverage of any
showers/tstms and stratus this afternoon and evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
.Thursday...MVFR cond possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly afternoon into early evening. SW winds 10-
15G20-25kt. Winds subside at night.
.Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong to sever storms are occurring over the sound, where
Special Marine Warnings have been issued. An isolated waterspout
is possible with these storms. SPC has placed all coastal waters
in a marginal risk for severe storms today.

SCA has been extended for all waters due to a strengthening
southerly flow ahead of a cold front this afternoon into this
evening. S wind gust of 25-30 kt on the ocean will build seas to
5-6 ft. Gusts will also approach 25 kt at times on the non-
ocean waters this afternoon into the first half of the night.

SCA seas will likely linger on the ocean waters east of Fire
Island Inlet on Tuesday. High pressure then follows for Tue
night into Wed.

Increasing S flow ahead of another cold front should allow
ocean seas to return to 5+ ft late Wed night into Thu. There
could be gusts up to 25 kt as well Thu into Thu evening. Winds
and seas then subside Thu night into Fri after the frontal
passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Thunderstorm activity with associated heavy rainfall could lead
to minor urban and poor drainage flooding as well as localized
flash flooding. With some potential for hydrologic impacts from
heavy rain WPC has placed our area in a marginal/slight risk of
excessive rainfall.

No significant hydrologic impacts are expected Tuesday through
Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A southerly flow increases this afternoon with a building S-SE
swell through the day. There is a moderate risk for the
development of rip currents at the ocean beaches in the morning,
increasing to high in the afternoon.

This high risk should continue into Tuesday as a 5-6 ft S-SW
swell with 6-8 second periods remain through the day.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC/MD
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
158 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

NYZ075-178-179-191800-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
158 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 473 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-081-191800-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
158 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-176-177-191800-
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
158 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 473 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather that
would meet NWS warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078-079-191800-
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
158 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather that would meet NWS
warning criteria is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355-191800-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
158 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ335-338-191800-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
158 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 473 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

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