Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS New York, NY

250 
WGUS71 KOKX 181814
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
214 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

NYC103-181900-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220718T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Suffolk NY-
214 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTY...

At 214 PM EDT, Doppler radar estimates between 2.5 and 3.5 inches of 
rain have fallen since noon. Flash flooding is already occurring in 
the town of Greenport and additional flash flooding is likely in the 
warned area.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Southold, Mattituck, Plum Island, Shelter Island, Greenport, 
  Peconic, Cutchogue, Laurel and Orient.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4101 7260 4115 7236 4118 7223 4120 7220
      4116 7218 4115 7220 4116 7221 4112 7225
      4110 7229 4109 7226 4102 7240 4102 7243
      4101 7242 4097 7249 4097 7252 4096 7254

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

DS

886 
WGUS71 KOKX 181858
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
258 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

NYC103-181908-
/O.EXP.KOKX.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220718T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Suffolk NY-
258 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 4101 7260 4115 7236 4118 7223 4120 7220
      4116 7218 4115 7220 4116 7221 4112 7225
      4110 7229 4109 7226 4102 7240 4102 7243
      4101 7242 4097 7249 4097 7252 4096 7254

$$

DS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the area later this morning,
followed by an approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough,
both of which pass through tonight. Weak high pressure will
then follow Tuesday into Wednesday. Another warm front will lift
through Wednesday night, followed by a weak cold front Thursday
and Thursday night. High pressure will return Friday and
Saturday. A frontal system may affect the region Saturday night
into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to move NE across the
forecast area. Some of these thunderstorms are strong, but non
have reached severe just yet. The strongest are occurring over
the sound, where Special Marine Warnings have been issued.
Will continue to watch for supercells along the warm front with
potential for severe and/or isolated tornado threat as this
activity works NE. In addition. rainfall rates approaching an
inch an hour in spots. Isolated flooding a threat as well, but
movement is to the NE at 25 kt. Minor nuisance, poor drainage
flooding is more likely.

Latest CAMs take much of this activity north and west of NYC
this morning, but still cannot rule out development to the east
with high CAPES and lift along the warm front.

While the forcing is not all that strong, the MUCAPES across
the region range from 500-1000 J/KG inland to in excess of a
1000 J/KG at the coast. In addition, PW values in excess of 2
inches will work in from the SW this morning ahead a shortwave
trough working east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
states. The latter of which will send a warm front through the
area this morning, followed by a pre-frontal trough this
afternoon, and finally a weak cold frontal passage overnight.

Mid-level lapse rates are generally less than 6C and sunshine
will be limited to realize the full instability potential. Even
so, there is increasing deep-layer shear (35-40 kt) through this
afternoon with the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms.
SPC has placed the entire area under a Slight risk for severe
thunderstorms across NE New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley,
and Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms elsewhere,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The main threats
are damaging winds gusts and an isolated tornado. Furthermore,
WPC has much of the area under a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall and an even smaller corridor across NE NJ and the NYC
metro under a Slight Risk. So while this is a disjointed system,
there are the pieces for a localized severe and flash flood
threat.

The first round of showers and embedded thunderstorms will lift
through the area this morning with the warm front, followed by
a second round late this afternoon into the evening in
association with the pre-frontal trough. Convection with the
latter will likely weaken as it approaches the coast with gusty
south winds (up to 30 mph) bringing in a more stable marine
layer. In addition, we may have to watch out for any residual
fog/stratus boundaries behind the warm front this morning. Per
the SPC HREF, the NSSL WRF was more aggressive with a such a
signal. 06Z NAMnest though is really backing off on the
activity this morning significantly with the pre-frontal trough
late this afternoon being the main player to watch.

Any lingering showers or thunderstorms likely pass off the
coast during the early morning hours Tuesday.

As for rainfall amounts, while localized heavy rainfall can
happen almost anywhere today with any boundary, the higher mean
QPF values can be expected across the Lower Hudson Valley at an
1-1.5 inches, with significantly lower amounts at the coast.

Highs today will be near normal in the lower to mid 80s, warmest
across the NYC/NJ metro where there could be readings in the
upper 80s. It will also be incredibly humid with dew points in
the lower 70s.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with somewhat
drier air working in behind the cold front after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Behind the cold front, a deep-layered westerly flow and ridging
aloft will bring the first widespread heat wave to the area for
the midweek timeframe. 85h temps get to around 20C, This
combined with dew points well into the 60s will produce heat
index values in the 95 to 100 range. This looks to be more
isolated around the NYC/NJ metro on Tuesday, but then more
widespread Wednesday and Thursday. Heat advisories are becoming
increasingly likely as we get into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High heat and humidity continue into Thursday. With the
passage of a warm front Wednesday night there will be a chance
for showers and thunderstorms, especially across the interior
with the best frontal lift. A shortwave, pre frontal trough, and
a cold front will provide better upper support Thursday as the
air mass will become more unstable through the day.

Weak ridging builds Friday into Saturday with a warm and humid
airmass returning, and temperatures remaining above seasonal normals.
Another frontal system potentially impacts the area later Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front continues to slowly lift north through the terminals
today. A cold front then passes through tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms slowly moving north-northeast with some
additional development in its wake, but should largely be clear
of the area by 16Z. Gusts to near 40 kt possible in/near the
initial storms. There may be a brief break before another round
of thunderstorms develops this afternoon initially to the west
of the city by 17-19Z, then slowly moving east through the
evening reaching the city terminals after 21Z. There will be stronger
gust potential with these storms.

Some IFR stratus lingering in the vicinity of the warm front
this morning with the slowest clearing across KISP, KBDR, and
KGON. There is potential some IFR stratus could remain through
18Z, particularly at KGON.

Light ESE to S winds eventually increase and shift to S-SW 10-15G20kt
in the afternoon. Even higher at KJFK.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are possible to adjust timing/coverage of any
showers/tstms and stratus this afternoon and evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
.Thursday...MVFR cond possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly afternoon into early evening. SW winds 10-
15G20-25kt. Winds subside at night.
.Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong to sever storms are occurring over the sound, where
Special Marine Warnings have been issued. An isolated waterspout
is possible with these storms. SPC has placed all coastal waters
in a marginal risk for severe storms today.

SCA has been extended for all waters due to a strengthening
southerly flow ahead of a cold front this afternoon into this
evening. S wind gust of 25-30 kt on the ocean will build seas to
5-6 ft. Gusts will also approach 25 kt at times on the non-
ocean waters this afternoon into the first half of the night.

SCA seas will likely linger on the ocean waters east of Fire
Island Inlet on Tuesday. High pressure then follows for Tue
night into Wed.

Increasing S flow ahead of another cold front should allow
ocean seas to return to 5+ ft late Wed night into Thu. There
could be gusts up to 25 kt as well Thu into Thu evening. Winds
and seas then subside Thu night into Fri after the frontal
passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Thunderstorm activity with associated heavy rainfall could lead
to minor urban and poor drainage flooding as well as localized
flash flooding. With some potential for hydrologic impacts from
heavy rain WPC has placed our area in a marginal/slight risk of
excessive rainfall.

No significant hydrologic impacts are expected Tuesday through
Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A southerly flow increases this afternoon with a building S-SE
swell through the day. There is a moderate risk for the
development of rip currents at the ocean beaches in the morning,
increasing to high in the afternoon.

This high risk should continue into Tuesday as a 5-6 ft S-SW
swell with 6-8 second periods remain through the day.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC/MD
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
417 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

NYZ075-080-081-178-179-190830-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
417 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

In addition, there is the potential for multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms today into this evening as a frontal system impacts
the area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under a
marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. The main threats would be damaging wind
gusts and an isolated tornado. Some of the storms will also produce
heavy downpours, which could lead to localized flooding of urban, low
lying and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-190830-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
417 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
today into this evening as a frontal system impacts the area. The
Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under a marginal risk for
isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. The main threats would be damaging wind gusts and an
isolated tornado. Some of the storms will also produce heavy
downpours, which could lead to localized flooding of urban, low lying
and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather that would meet NWS
warning criteria is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-190830-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
417 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
today into this evening as a frontal system impacts the area. The
Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under a marginal risk for
isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. The main threats would be damaging wind gusts and an
isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1200 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

NYZ079-081-181630-
Southeast Suffolk NY-Northeast Suffolk NY-
1200 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Suffolk
County through 1230 PM EDT...

At 1200 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Riverhead, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Riverhead, Mattituck, Calverton, Flanders, Aquebogue, Jamesport and
Laurel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4086 7274 4097 7281 4099 7272 4100 7264
      4105 7254 4097 7250 4097 7253 4095 7254
      4089 7260
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 265DEG 29KT 4093 7267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1218 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

NYZ079-181700-
Northeast Suffolk NY-
1218 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Suffolk
County through 100 PM EDT...

At 1217 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Southold, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Southold, Shelter Island, Greenport, Peconic, Cutchogue and Orient.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4110 7229 4108 7226 4106 7226 4103 7233
      4104 7237 4102 7238 4102 7242 4099 7242
      4096 7250 4097 7250 4104 7255 4115 7236
      4118 7224 4115 7221
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 237DEG 22KT 4104 7241

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S MAMARONECK          40.92N 73.73W
07/18/2022  M39 MPH          ANZ335             NY   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XLAR LARCHMONT HARBOR.

&&

DBR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1227 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

NJZ006-104-NYZ072-073-176-181715-
Hudson NJ-Eastern Bergen NJ-Northern Queens NY-Bronx NY-
New York (Manhattan) NY-
1227 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Hudson, southeastern
Bergen, Queens, Bronx and New York (Manhattan) Counties through 115
PM EDT...

At 1227 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hoboken, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jersey City, Mott Haven, Hoboken, East Tremont, Hackensack,
Bergenfield, Lyndhurst, Rutherford, Secaucus, Harrison, Ridgefield,
Midtown Manhattan, RFK Bridge, Laguardia Airport and Harlem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4072 7412 4074 7412 4074 7415 4075 7417
      4095 7403 4081 7380 4073 7394 4074 7395
      4074 7396 4072 7397 4067 7405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 218DEG 12KT 4075 7406

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1228 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

NYZ079-181715-
Northeast Suffolk NY-
1228 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Suffolk
County through 115 PM EDT...

At 1227 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mattituck, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mattituck, Cutchogue, Aquebogue, Jamesport and Laurel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4099 7274 4100 7264 4103 7257 4106 7252
      4098 7246 4097 7251 4097 7252 4096 7253
      4095 7255 4092 7267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 237DEG 16KT 4099 7264

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1258 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

NYZ079-181745-
Northeast Suffolk NY-
1258 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Suffolk
County through 145 PM EDT...

At 1258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Plum Island to near Shelter Island to near
Peconic. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southold, Plum Island, Shelter Island, Greenport, Peconic, Cutchogue
and Orient.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4118 7216 4110 7229 4108 7226 4103 7234
      4104 7237 4102 7238 4102 7242 4099 7242
      4095 7247 4097 7252 4103 7256 4114 7239
      4115 7237 4116 7231 4120 7215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 247DEG 27KT 4117 7221 4106 7230 4098 7246

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JT