Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
153 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Really in a waiting period currently as showers and thunderstorms
have begun to develop to our west, but have not yet moved into
our area. Beginning to see some severe storms develop across
Mississippi, where instability has already increased from this
morning. Increased shear has moved into the area as expected, with
surface winds still on the higher end of things. Regardless of
whether we see severe storms this afternoon or not, many will
continue to see wind gusts upwards of 50 mph.

With that being said, we are beginning to see some destabilization
to our southwest, where cloud coverage has broken a bit. As
things stand right now, our southwestern counties have had the
best opportunity to destabilize and conditions appear to be most
favorable there for our tornado threat. Still have several hours
of daylight left to destabilize the rest of our area, which it
will not take a lot of instability to get these storms going
unfortunately since everything else is already in place.
Expecting storms to begin to cross the TN river within the next
few hours, arrive to the I-65 corridor between 3 PM and 6PM, and
arrive to the Upper Cumberland between 5 PM and 9 PM. Damaging
wind gusts and a tornado or two are our main concerns. In
addition, isolated flash flooding in poorly drained areas and
areas that received prolonged rainfall this morning cannot be
ruled out.

Everything will move out early tomorrow morning, leaving behind
cloud skies through at least the first half of the day. Do expect
temps to be well cooler tomorrow, with highs nearly 20 to 30
degrees cooler than today. Looking at this weekend, things
actually look fairly nice with plenty of sunshine and temps
gradually warming each day.

Glancing into next week, things are setting up for two decent
weather makers: one during the first half and one during the
second half. Certainly need to keep an eye on the system for the
first half of the week, as it could bring some heavy rainfall to
Middle TN. Right now it looks like showers would develop late
Monday, continue throughout Tuesday, and exit the area briefly on
Wednesday. Model ensembles are putting out some pretty high PWAT
values for the time of year with total rainfall amounts on the
higher end as well. There are certainly some question marks as to
where the boundary will set up and how long showers would train
over a certain area for, so will leave things there for now. For
obvious reason, there aren't a lot of details to be shared about
the second half system given that it would be a week away at this
point, but know that even more rain could be on the way. As for
our temperatures into next week, temps will be on the warm side
through the first half of the week with things returning to more
normal for the second half.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Strong southerly winds will become more northerly following a
frontal boundary this afternoon/evening. Expect for TSRA to move
through this afternoon with periods of decreased visibilities and
variable winds. LLWS will be a concern from now until roughly 00Z
after the front passes through CKV/BNA/MQY. MVFR cigs expected
behind the front, with CSV dropping to IFR/LIFR. Should begin to
see improvements near the end of the current TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      28  41  27  49  26 /  60   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    25  40  27  46  25 /  30   0   0   0   0
Crossville     27  37  24  45  24 / 100   0   0   0   0
Columbia       27  43  26  51  26 /  60   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   28  42  26  51  26 /  70   0   0   0   0
Waverly        25  41  27  48  28 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Adcock
AVIATION........Adcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
348 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-181130-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
348 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe weather event expected today. Severe storms are likely to
develop in the afternoon and early evening. These storms may
produce either straight-lined winds and/or spinup tornadoes.

Additionally, gradient winds today are likely to gust to around
45mph at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall will be possible Monday through Wednesday at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
354 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

TNZ057>062-093>095-172245-
Hickman TN-Lawrence TN-Rutherford TN-Wayne TN-Williamson TN-Lewis TN-
Maury TN-Giles TN-Marshall TN-
354 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lewis, northeastern
Wayne, Marshall, northwestern Rutherford, northern Lawrence, Maury,
Williamson, northern Giles and eastern Hickman Counties through 445
PM CST...

At 354 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Centerville to 6 miles
northeast of Collinwood. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Columbia, Lewisburg, Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Hohenwald,
Centerville, Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne, Spring Hill, Nolensville,
Mount Pleasant, Thompson's Station, Summertown, Chapel Hill,
Cornersville, Eagleville, Ethridge and Lynnville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 13 and 70.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 64 and 69.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 7 and 47.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 8776 3593 8740 3600 8670 3597 8662
      3601 8661 3602 8651 3526 8679 3526 8683
      3517 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 256DEG 44KT 3586 8737 3525 8768

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
415 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

TNZ007>009-027>030-172300-
Robertson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-Macon TN-
Smith TN-
415 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Smith,
Davidson, Sumner, northern Wilson, Macon, Trousdale and eastern
Robertson Counties through 500 PM CST...

At 414 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Portland to Bellevue. Movement was east at
60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Lebanon, Lafayette, Carthage, Hartsville, Nashville,
Madison, Hendersonville, Mount Juliet, Goodlettsville, White House,
Millersville, Cross Plains and Red Boiling Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8581 3618 8598 3604 8702 3665 8659
      3663 8657 3665 8651 3665 8645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 251DEG 52KT 3660 8657 3607 8693

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
432 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

TNZ027-028-059>062-075-172315-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-Bedford TN-
Maury TN-Marshall TN-
432 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Davidson, northern Marshall, Rutherford, eastern Maury, eastern
Williamson, southern Wilson and northern Bedford Counties through 515
PM CST...

At 431 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Franklin to Columbia. Movement was east
at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Franklin, Columbia, Shelbyville, Smyrna, Brentwood, La
Vergne, Spring Hill, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Thompson's
Station, Watertown, Walterhill, Rural Hill, Antioch, Chapel Hill,
Wartrace, Eagleville and Bell Buckle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 8709 3607 8684 3618 8609 3616 8609
      3552 8632
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 263DEG 51KT 3593 8678 3550 8699

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
433 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

TNZ060-061-075-095-172315-
Bedford TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-Marshall TN-
433 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Marshall,
southeastern Maury, Giles and southern Bedford Counties through 515
PM CST...

At 432 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles southeast of Mount Pleasant to 10
miles east of Lexington. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Lewisburg, Pulaski, Ardmore, Cornersville, Wartrace,
Elkton, Minor Hill, Lynnville, Culleoka, Belfast, Goodspring,
Frankewing, Prospect and Farmington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8722 3507 8722 3549 8707 3554 8630
      3537 8634 3535 8641 3532 8642 3533 8646
      3536 8649 3535 8653 3537 8659 3533 8660
      3531 8668 3525 8675 3526 8683 3499 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 269DEG 40KT 3543 8704 3502 8719

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
451 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

TNZ009-010-028>032-172330-
Putnam TN-Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Clay TN-Jackson TN-Macon TN-
Smith TN-
451 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Smith, Jackson,
central Wilson, Clay, Macon, Trousdale and west central Putnam
Counties through 530 PM CST...

At 450 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Lafayette to near Lebanon.
Movement was east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Carthage, Celina, Gainesboro, Hartsville, Watertown,
Baxter, Gordonsville, Tuckers Crossroads, Moss, Bugtussle, Dixon
Springs, Pleasant Shade, and Granville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8542 3613 8563 3612 8580 3613 8581
      3613 8584 3611 8586 3612 8591 3611 8591
      3611 8596 3610 8597 3606 8643 3663 8607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 257DEG 51KT 3662 8602 3614 8632

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13