Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
135 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

A weak surface boundary has developed over Middle Tennessee this
afternoon, and this is combining with the heat and high moisture
to produce numerous cells across the mid state, much like what we
experienced yesterday afternoon in terms of coverage. Instability
parameters are almost identical to those observed yesterday, and
PWAT this morning was a robust 2.01". POP's will increase further
on Friday as the excessive heat/heat advisory criteria continue
to be met. There is a slight risk of severe storms for most of
Middle Tennessee today with a marginal risk in play tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Likely POP's can be expected on Saturday for most of Middle
Tennessee as a slow-moving east-west surface boundary moves
southward across the region. This will lower temperatures to near
normal value beginning on Saturday and lasting through the
weekend. However, readings will start to creep back up starting on
Monday, even though it looks to be dry. But rain chances will
start back up on Tuesday. However, look for temperatures to
moderate later in the week with a second fropa possible Wednesday
or Wednesday night and lower POP's later in the week owing to an
air mass change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Scattered TSRA will plague KBNA and KMQY reducing visibilities
due to heavy rain through at least 20Z. Beyond that time frame,
continued with VCTS for KCKV, KBNA, and KMQY as scattered TSRA
develops and moves across Middle Tennessee. KCSV is a little more
uncertain when it comes to timing and location of TSRA, but think
it should be after 20Z. Beyond 02Z, think VFR Conditions will
return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  97  75  89 /  20  50  80  70
Clarksville    74  96  73  87 /  20  60  70  50
Crossville     70  88  70  81 /  30  60  80  80
Columbia       73  96  73  90 /  20  40  70  70
Cookeville     72  91  72  84 /  30  50  80  80
Jamestown      70  88  70  82 /  30  60  80  80
Lawrenceburg   73  95  73  89 /  20  40  70  80
Murfreesboro   73  96  74  89 /  20  50  80  80
Waverly        75  98  73  89 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for Cannon-Clay-
Coffee-De Kalb-Jackson-Macon-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Smith-
Trousdale-Warren-White.

Excessive Heat Warning until midnight CDT Friday night for
Bedford-Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Hurley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
240 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-080745-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
240 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A dangerous combination of heat and humidity will continue.
Excessive Heat Warnings or Heat Advisories are in place for most of
the area.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected. A few may be severe with
damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A dangerous combination of heat and humidity will continue through
Friday. Excessive Heat Warnings or Heat Advisories are in place for
most of the area.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday through Saturday.
A few storms may be severe with damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS in Nashville.

13

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