Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
135 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

A weak surface boundary has developed over Middle Tennessee this
afternoon, and this is combining with the heat and high moisture
to produce numerous cells across the mid state, much like what we
experienced yesterday afternoon in terms of coverage. Instability
parameters are almost identical to those observed yesterday, and
PWAT this morning was a robust 2.01". POP's will increase further
on Friday as the excessive heat/heat advisory criteria continue
to be met. There is a slight risk of severe storms for most of
Middle Tennessee today with a marginal risk in play tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Likely POP's can be expected on Saturday for most of Middle
Tennessee as a slow-moving east-west surface boundary moves
southward across the region. This will lower temperatures to near
normal value beginning on Saturday and lasting through the
weekend. However, readings will start to creep back up starting on
Monday, even though it looks to be dry. But rain chances will
start back up on Tuesday. However, look for temperatures to
moderate later in the week with a second fropa possible Wednesday
or Wednesday night and lower POP's later in the week owing to an
air mass change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Scattered TSRA will plague KBNA and KMQY reducing visibilities
due to heavy rain through at least 20Z. Beyond that time frame,
continued with VCTS for KCKV, KBNA, and KMQY as scattered TSRA
develops and moves across Middle Tennessee. KCSV is a little more
uncertain when it comes to timing and location of TSRA, but think
it should be after 20Z. Beyond 02Z, think VFR Conditions will
return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  97  75  89 /  20  50  80  70
Clarksville    74  96  73  87 /  20  60  70  50
Crossville     70  88  70  81 /  30  60  80  80
Columbia       73  96  73  90 /  20  40  70  70
Cookeville     72  91  72  84 /  30  50  80  80
Jamestown      70  88  70  82 /  30  60  80  80
Lawrenceburg   73  95  73  89 /  20  40  70  80
Murfreesboro   73  96  74  89 /  20  50  80  80
Waverly        75  98  73  89 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for Cannon-Clay-
Coffee-De Kalb-Jackson-Macon-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Smith-
Trousdale-Warren-White.

Excessive Heat Warning until midnight CDT Friday night for
Bedford-Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Stewart-Sumner-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Hurley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
240 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-080745-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
240 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A dangerous combination of heat and humidity will continue.
Excessive Heat Warnings or Heat Advisories are in place for most of
the area.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected. A few may be severe with
damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A dangerous combination of heat and humidity will continue through
Friday. Excessive Heat Warnings or Heat Advisories are in place for
most of the area.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday through Saturday.
A few storms may be severe with damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS in Nashville.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
147 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

TNZ028-030-071915-
Wilson TN-Smith TN-
147 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Smith
and northeastern Wilson Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 146 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Watertown, or 8 miles east of Lebanon, moving east at
5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Watertown, South Carthage and Tuckers Crossroads.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 240 and 255.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 8596 3609 8604 3609 8606 3607 8606
      3607 8605 3606 8606 3613 8629 3630 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 286DEG 5KT 3620 8618

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
202 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

TNZ007-008-071930-
Robertson TN-Sumner TN-
202 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Sumner
and northeastern Robertson Counties through 230 PM CDT...

At 201 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Cross Plains, or near Prices Mill, Kentucky, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cross Plains, Portland, Orlinda, Mitchellville and Black Jack.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 111 and 121.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8641 3647 8641 3653 8682 3665 8683
      3665 8658 3663 8656 3664 8655 3664 8654
      3665 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 278DEG 14KT 3668 8672

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
203 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

TNZ007-008-026-027-071930-
Robertson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-Sumner TN-
203 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Davidson,
southwestern Sumner, east central Cheatham and southeastern Robertson
Counties through 230 PM CDT...

At 203 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coopertown, or 7 miles south of Springfield, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Madison, Hendersonville, Goodlettsville, White House,
Millersville, Greenbrier, Coopertown, Lakewood, Ridgetop, Hermitage,
Old Hickory, Joelton, Whites Creek and Beaman Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 88 and 107.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 29 and 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 8701 3647 8695 3646 8654 3619 8661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 278DEG 14KT 3639 8689

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger

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