Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
307 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Saturday)...

Shortwave/MCV and surface outflow boundary moving across the area
this afternoon has resulted in widespread showers and
thunderstorms with some severe thunderstorms. This activity will
move east of our area this afternoon, and the surface cold front
will move across the area tonight from the north. There will be a
slight chance/chance of showers ahead of this front this evening,
but overall PoPs will decrease substantially behind the original
convective line tonight.

JB

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)...

High pressure and a drier airmass arrives this weekend with
northerly flow. Cooler temperatures near or slightly below normal
will be expected. In addition, low relative humidity is expected
Saturday, and especially Sunday, afternoon with the warm
temperatures and dry airmass. High pressure and upper subsidence
will result in a clear sky.

Upper-level ridging builds in from the west early next week with
continued dry weather and warming temperatures. Temperatures will
be much above normal once again as NAEFS shows 850mb temperatures
around the 99th percentile of climatology. With low-level ridging
across the Mid-South, westerly/NW flow will continue across the
area which is expected to limit moisture return to the region.
This should limit overall moisture, keep us dry, and limit heat
index values even as temperatures climb into the 90s. Still, heat safety
will be a priority with unseasonably hot weather.

Late in the week, subtle shortwaves or convective clusters
rotating around the eastern rim of the ridge may impact our area,
especially northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia with slight
chances of showers and thunderstorms.

JB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Line of scattered thunderstorms will impact terminals this
afternoon between 18z and 21z. VFR conditions will prevail with
tempo IFR conditions possible within thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Strong wind gusts will be
expected in the vicinity of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Precipitation coverage decreases tonight with VFR conditions
prevailing at all sites late in the period.

JB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  89  62  88  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  84  58  85  60 /  30   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  84  58  85  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  79  50  81  54 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-181900-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
252 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 /152 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening with damaging winds and hail up to 1 inch in diameter
being the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Hot weather returns Tuesday through Thursday next week, with
afternoon high temperatures well above normal.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time, but reports of
severe weather or thunderstorm damage are encouraged.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EVENSVILLE              35.56N 84.95W
06/17/2022                   RHEA               TN   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN COUNTY
            WIDE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

NW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
243 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

TNZ018-045>047-171930-
Northwest Carter TN-Southeast Carter TN-Unicoi TN-Johnson TN-
243 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Unicoi,
southern Johnson and Carter Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 242 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mountain City to 7 miles south of Hampton.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Elizabethton, Erwin, Mountain City, Banner Hill,
Hampton, Pine Crest, Unicoi, Roane Mountain State Park and Neva.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for
east Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 8175 3636 8179 3631 8190 3612 8203
      3610 8208 3611 8213 3615 8215 3616 8222
      3613 8225 3614 8229 3611 8237 3601 8246
      3597 8253 3616 8244 3621 8237 3629 8233
      3646 8197 3644 8172 3640 8174 3634 8171
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 277DEG 27KT 3642 8188 3617 8219

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Diegan

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