Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
114 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MCS currently across western KY will move southeast toward the
forecast area and is expected to reach the western portions of
our CWA by the mid-day to early afternoon hours around 17z-18z.
Models continue to poorly handle the current initial convective
complex location and are too slow with the eastward progression of
this system. Have increased PoPs across the area and moved up
timing to account for the models being too slow with the eastward
progression of the convective complex.

The 12z OHX soundings shows a very unstable airmass across Middle
TN ahead of this MCS with MLCAPE around 3300 J/Kg. Effective bulk
shear is weak, but strong MLCAPE and drier mid- levels are
resulting in a thermodynamic profile favorable for damaging wind
gusts.

JB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Line of scattered thunderstorms will impact terminals this
afternoon between 18z and 21z. VFR conditions will prevail with
tempo IFR conditions possible within thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Strong wind gusts will be
expected in the vicinity of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Precipitation coverage decreases tonight with VFR conditions
prevailing at all sites late in the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022/
SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

Key Messages:

1. Slightly cooler, but very hot temperatures again this afternoon.

2. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and early evening. With high instability in place, a few
strong to severe storms will be possible.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a strong ridge will be over the Great Plains.
Northwesterly flow will be over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
with minor shortwaves moving through the pattern likely to enhance
lift. At the surface, low pressure near Quebec is dragging a cold
front through the Eastern U.S. This front will be a source of lift
for convective activity. High instability is expected tomorrow
afternoon with dew points in the lower 70s and CAPE around 3500
to 5000 J/kg. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in
the afternoon and early evening hours. With a good source of lift
arriving during max heating when instability is high, a few strong
to severe storms will be possible. The main threat will be
damaging straight line winds and large hail. Activity will
decrease shortly after sunset and come to an end completely around
midnight as the cold front moves through.

Another hot day is expected tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s
for most of the Tennessee Valley. Heat indices from 100 to 105
degrees will be possible in the Central and Southern Tennessee
Valley. Relief is on the way with a cold front moving through
tonight. Humidity will be noticeably lower by Saturday morning.

McD

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

1. Dry through Tuesday. Isolated convection thereafter.

2. Cooler this weekend, then abnormally hot temperatures in the mid
to upper 90s are expected to return by Tuesday.

At the start of the period, area will be under a dry northwesterly
flow that will provide a very pleasant weekend with Sunday low temps
commonly in the 50s. But the big bad high pressure ridge will return
early in the work week and lock in a regime where high temps will
run about 10 degrees above normal during Tues-Thurs, and we may see
more records be broken.

Convection chances for Wed-Thurs seem to be limited mostly to the
northeastern third-half of area, but as we saw earlier this week,
these regimes can be difficult for models to decipher the potential
amd timing of any MCS activity, especially this far ahead.

The daily record high temperatures for the period of interest are
listed below:

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge
06-21   100(1953)      99(1953)       94(1988)       100(1948)
06-22   100(1988)      99(1988)       95(1988)       98(1988)
06-23   100(1988)      100(1988)      96(1988)       100(1988)

GC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  90  62  88  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  86  58  84  62 /  20   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  86  58  85  61 /  20   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  81  51  81  56 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
331 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-180745-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
331 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 /231 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat index values will exceed 100 degrees across much of the
central and southern valley areas this afternoon.

In addition, there is potential for a few strong to severe storms
this afternoon into this evening, with damaging winds and hail up
to 1 inch in diameter being the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Hot weather returns Tuesday through Thursday next week, with
afternoon high temperatures well above normal.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time, but reports of
severe weather or thunderstorm damage are encouraged.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
129 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

TNZ015-016-171815-
Hancock TN-Hawkins TN-
129 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Hawkins
and south central Hancock Counties through 215 PM EDT...

At 129 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Sneedville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rogersville, Sneedville, Surgoinsville, St. Clair, Kepler, Treadway,
McCloud and Klondike.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for
east Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3645 8283 3635 8288 3633 8291 3633 8294
      3628 8301 3641 8327 3652 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 292DEG 20KT 3644 8318

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Diegan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
141 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

VAZ002-171830-
Wise VA-
141 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Wise County and the
City of Norton through 230 PM EDT...

At 141 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eolia, or 9 miles northwest of Norton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pound and Pardee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for
southwestern Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 8255 3703 8248 3697 8237 3689 8238
      3688 8240 3689 8240 3688 8254 3690 8285
      3698 8286 3699 8283 3701 8283 3701 8278
      3705 8272 3712 8272 3715 8264 3720 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 267DEG 26KT 3699 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Diegan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

TNZ069-070-073-171845-
Jefferson TN-Knox TN-North Sevier TN-
156 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Knox,
southern Jefferson and northern Sevier Counties through 245 PM EDT...

At 156 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of New Market to 8 miles
northwest of Sevierville to near Knoxville. Movement was east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Sevierville, Dandridge, Pigeon Forge, Strawberry Plains,
Bird Crossing, Fairgarden, Kimberlin Heights, McMahan and Chestnut
Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for
east Tennessee. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect
until 500 PM EDT for east Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 8377 3589 8379 3586 8383 3596 8405
      3604 8380 3609 8368 3609 8367 3610 8366
      3599 8328 3584 8339 3575 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 292DEG 22KT 3602 8365 3596 8369 3593 8396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Diegan

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