Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
336 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Sunday)...

A tale of two convective features.

High pressure off the southeast coast has us under a southerly
fetch of tropical moisture. A weak disturbance rotating northward
through western NC has been the focus of the quasi-organized
mountain convection this afternoon, and this will generally move
northward with the disturbance. Much of this convection will move
out of the area through sw VA this evening.

Meanwhile, a convective system along a frontal boundary toward
the Mississippi River this afternoon will move eastward and enter
the Plateau areas before 12Z Sunday morning. This front and precip
area will continue to slowly encroach into our area Sunday, and
hopefully end up justifying the 80% POPs for Sunday for most areas
before 00Z that evening. Many locales across our region could use
the rain.

GC

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Saturday)...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms are likely Sunday night into Monday with a
cold front moving through Sunday night, possibly stalling over the
area Monday.

2. Deep southerly flow continues Tuesday through Friday, with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. An approaching trough will
enhance rain chances especially Thursday with some locally heavy
rain possible.

Discussion:

A cold front with showers and thunderstorms is expected to be moving
east of the forecast area Sunday evening with the showers and
thunderstorms lingering over the eastern and southern sections. Some
possible heavier rainfall there with training of cells possible. A
chance of showers lingers overnight. Lows will be mild and in the
lower to mid 60s but cooler in the extreme north. Monday models want
to show some redevelopment across the forecast area with more
scattered showers and storms. NAM model forms another surface low
along the front to the southwest of east Tennessee and the front
will likely shift north as a warm front. This may enhance
precipitation. Have rain chances still likely over most of the
forecast area until Monday evening. Temperatures will be cooler too
mostly lower to mid 70s with cloud cover and more precipitation.

Monday night and Tuesday a continued southerly flow with higher
pressure to the east and more scattered showers and storms are
expected. Tuesday night and Wednesday the deep southerly flow
continues with diurnal showers and storms. Lower pressure with
developing system moves from the southern Plains into the Mid
mississippi Valley by late Wednesday with trailing front moving into
west Tennessee. Once again Wednesday night and Thursday expect
increasing southerly flow with numerous showers and thunderstorms
which may become strong to severe and produce periods of heavy
rainfall, especially Thursday. The cold front will move east of the
Appalchians Thursday night. Improving conditions but some lingering
moisture Friday. A chance of showers still possible and highs mostly
lower to mid 70s. Higher pressure to build in late Friday and Friday
night. Lows will drop into the 50s early Saturday. Expect clearing
skies Saturday with a low chance for precipitation to end the
extended forecast. Highs Saturday will be near seasonal normals.

TD

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

The expected diurnal convection has begun, and just enough in the
Valley to at least go with VCSH at CHA and TYS. A greater
coverage of precip is expected in the ne portion of the area, so
TRI will carry a VCTS and a TEMPO for SH this afternoon. If TRI
sees rainfall this afternoon, then expect fog there tomorrow
morning...but will not include fog in TAF until after precip
occurs if it does.

GC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  85  65  77  65 /  20  80  70  70  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  85  64  75  63 /  20  80  70  70  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  84  62  75  61 /  20  80  70  60  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  84  61  71  59 /  20  80  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
324 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-221930-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
324 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 /224 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and storms will occur this afternoon, especially
over far northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia. Isolated
severe storms could produce locally strong wind gusts and quarter
sized hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
401 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ044-045-212045-
Washington TN-Unicoi TN-
401 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Washington
and northern Unicoi Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 401 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Hot Springs, or 12 miles east of Newport, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Erwin, Jonesborough, Banner Hill, Midway, Unicoi,
Telford, Leesburg, Avondale and Limestone.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 8226 3608 8256 3624 8264 3625 8264
      3640 8236 3640 8235 3632 8232 3625 8234
      3626 8232 3625 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 239DEG 48KT 3591 8298

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
406 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ042>045-212045-
Washington TN-Northwest Greene TN-Southeast Greene TN-Unicoi TN-
406 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Washington, southeastern Greene and west central Unicoi Counties
through 445 PM EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tusculum, or 8 miles east of Greeneville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greeneville, Tusculum, Chucky, Cedar Creek, Limestone, Camp Creek and
Davy Crockett Birthplace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8261 3606 8262 3607 8264 3600 8278
      3598 8279 3597 8277 3592 8282 3595 8285
      3595 8290 3601 8297 3604 8299 3632 8266
      3613 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 238DEG 48KT 3617 8267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CM

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