Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
336 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Sunday)...

A tale of two convective features.

High pressure off the southeast coast has us under a southerly
fetch of tropical moisture. A weak disturbance rotating northward
through western NC has been the focus of the quasi-organized
mountain convection this afternoon, and this will generally move
northward with the disturbance. Much of this convection will move
out of the area through sw VA this evening.

Meanwhile, a convective system along a frontal boundary toward
the Mississippi River this afternoon will move eastward and enter
the Plateau areas before 12Z Sunday morning. This front and precip
area will continue to slowly encroach into our area Sunday, and
hopefully end up justifying the 80% POPs for Sunday for most areas
before 00Z that evening. Many locales across our region could use
the rain.

GC

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Saturday)...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms are likely Sunday night into Monday with a
cold front moving through Sunday night, possibly stalling over the
area Monday.

2. Deep southerly flow continues Tuesday through Friday, with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. An approaching trough will
enhance rain chances especially Thursday with some locally heavy
rain possible.

Discussion:

A cold front with showers and thunderstorms is expected to be moving
east of the forecast area Sunday evening with the showers and
thunderstorms lingering over the eastern and southern sections. Some
possible heavier rainfall there with training of cells possible. A
chance of showers lingers overnight. Lows will be mild and in the
lower to mid 60s but cooler in the extreme north. Monday models want
to show some redevelopment across the forecast area with more
scattered showers and storms. NAM model forms another surface low
along the front to the southwest of east Tennessee and the front
will likely shift north as a warm front. This may enhance
precipitation. Have rain chances still likely over most of the
forecast area until Monday evening. Temperatures will be cooler too
mostly lower to mid 70s with cloud cover and more precipitation.

Monday night and Tuesday a continued southerly flow with higher
pressure to the east and more scattered showers and storms are
expected. Tuesday night and Wednesday the deep southerly flow
continues with diurnal showers and storms. Lower pressure with
developing system moves from the southern Plains into the Mid
mississippi Valley by late Wednesday with trailing front moving into
west Tennessee. Once again Wednesday night and Thursday expect
increasing southerly flow with numerous showers and thunderstorms
which may become strong to severe and produce periods of heavy
rainfall, especially Thursday. The cold front will move east of the
Appalchians Thursday night. Improving conditions but some lingering
moisture Friday. A chance of showers still possible and highs mostly
lower to mid 70s. Higher pressure to build in late Friday and Friday
night. Lows will drop into the 50s early Saturday. Expect clearing
skies Saturday with a low chance for precipitation to end the
extended forecast. Highs Saturday will be near seasonal normals.

TD

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

The expected diurnal convection has begun, and just enough in the
Valley to at least go with VCSH at CHA and TYS. A greater
coverage of precip is expected in the ne portion of the area, so
TRI will carry a VCTS and a TEMPO for SH this afternoon. If TRI
sees rainfall this afternoon, then expect fog there tomorrow
morning...but will not include fog in TAF until after precip
occurs if it does.

GC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  85  65  77  65 /  20  80  70  70  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  85  64  75  63 /  20  80  70  70  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  84  62  75  61 /  20  80  70  60  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  84  61  71  59 /  20  80  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
324 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-221930-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
324 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022 /224 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and storms will occur this afternoon, especially
over far northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia. Isolated
severe storms could produce locally strong wind gusts and quarter
sized hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not needed at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
323 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ042-043-212000-
Northwest Greene TN-Southeast Greene TN-
323 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

...An area of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
southeastern Greene County through 400 PM EDT...

At 322 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms 8 miles south of Greeneville, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greeneville, Tusculum, Camp Creek and Cedar Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8263 3607 8264 3605 8267 3602 8272
      3599 8278 3602 8291 3617 8290 3617 8265
      3615 8265 3614 8264 3614 8263 3611 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 196DEG 7KT 3605 8285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Diegan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
325 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ040-041-073-074-212000-
Cocke Smoky Mountains TN-Northwest Cocke TN-
Sevier Smoky Mountains TN-North Sevier TN-
325 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Cocke
and southeastern Sevier Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Gatlinburg, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain,
Pittman Center, Cosby, Hartford, Waterville and Great Smoky Mountains
National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 8336 3571 8345 3590 8332 3590 8330
      3594 8329 3580 8305 3577 8311 3577 8316
      3573 8320 3572 8325 3569 8326 3567 8329
      3566 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 222DEG 16KT 3575 8333

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Diegan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
334 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ017-018-045>047-212015-
Sullivan TN-Northwest Carter TN-Southeast Carter TN-Unicoi TN-
Johnson TN-
334 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Sullivan, northeastern Unicoi, western Johnson and Carter Counties
through 415 PM EDT...

At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Mountain City to 7 miles
southwest of Hampton. Movement was north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Elizabethton, Central, Hampton, Pine Crest, Unicoi,
Watauga, Hunter, Morril's Cave and Neva.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 8190 3628 8192 3615 8218 3616 8222
      3613 8225 3614 8226 3613 8228 3614 8229
      3612 8233 3629 8233 3636 8230 3640 8230
      3640 8233 3642 8233 3661 8185 3635 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 186DEG 22KT 3646 8191 3619 8226

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Diegan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
348 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

TNZ018-VAZ008-212030-
Johnson TN-Washington VA-
348 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Johnson
and southeastern Washington Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 348 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mountain City. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain City, Damascus, Laurel Bloomery and Konnarock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8161 3661 8165 3659 8168 3657 8168
      3653 8171 3651 8170 3645 8187 3657 8193
      3658 8188 3660 8187 3661 8183 3661 8192
      3660 8194 3661 8193 3677 8169 3664 8162
      3664 8161
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 234DEG 4KT 3656 8179

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TD