High Wind Watch 3, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1208 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

1. Dry through the period with an increase in clouds as well as
winds.

Discussion:

We start the period with surface high pressure centered off to our
east and northeast and quasi-zonal flow aloft. The surface high will
continue to slide east during the period as an upper trough begins
to deepen well to our west allowing the flow aloft over our area to
take on an increasing southerly component.  This will result in an
increase in moisture for us. It will be mostly clear for much of
tonight, but clouds will increase late tonight into Wednesday
although precipitation will hold off until after the short term
period.

The low level jet will strengthen out of the south and southeast
tonight into Wednesday reaching speeds of 30 kts or more.  While
direction of the low level jet looks favorable for mountain waves,
the vertical wind profile does not look ideal. Will keep winds in
the mountains/foothills at borderline speeds for an advisory and not
issue a wind advisory for now, but this will bear watching. Winds in
the valley may become gusty Wednesday afternoon in locations that
favor a south/southwest flow. Temperatures tonight will generally be
near to slightly above normal, and highs Wednesday will be
significantly above normal.

LW

.LONG TERM....(Wednesday night through Tuesday)...

Key Messages:

1. A cold front will bring widespread rain showers and some
thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. A few strong storms due
to high low level winds. Also strong southeast winds in the
foothills and mountains Thursday and Thursday evening.

2. Cooler and dry weather expected Friday afternoon through Sunday.

3. Warmer with a chance of rain increasing Monday into Tuesday.

Discussion:

Wednesday night starts out with continued strong low level winds as
cold front stretches from the Great Lakes to the southern High
Plains of west Texas and strong high pressure ridge along the
eastern seaboard. Warm south winds will continue overnight and
increasing moisture with upslope winds along the Appalachians and
southwest North Carolina. Low rain chances overnight in these area.
Winds will gust to around 40 mph in a few locations as low level jet
stays strong. Lower pressure will move east along the front and
reach the Arkansas border by Thursday morning. This low will move
northeast across the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley
during the day Thursday as the cold front moves east across the
Tennessee Valley. Thursday both GFS and NAM model shows even higher
850 MB winds to 60 to 70 knots and continue them till around
midnight Thursday night. A High Wind Watch may need to be issued by
early Wednesday in the foothills and mountains of east Tennessee and
advisory level winds may occur in the lower elevations later
Thursday and into the evening ahead of the front. With the high wind
shear but low instability as dew points may reach 60 for a few hours
in the south showers and some thunderstorms will develop to the west
of the forecast area during the day Thursday and then move into
eastern Tennessee by late afternoon into the evening.

Heavy rainfall will be possible ahead of the front Thursday
afternoon and evening. Localized amounts over 1.5 to as much as 2
inches possible. The best time for strong winds outside of the
mountain wave area will be Thursday evening with some storms.
Temperatures will be warmer Thursday morning, mostly 40s to lower
50s. Highs Thursday expected much above normal in the 60s to around
70. With the strong winds Thursday night temperatures will stay mild
for the first half of the night but drop quickly to the 30s around
sunrise. With a slower timing of the front and precipitation some
mixed precipitation is possible late Thursday night and early Friday
morning before ending. Very little accumulation possible due to the
short duration and warm temperatures the next 2 days.

Friday afternoon and Saturday will be cooler and dry as higher
pressure settles into the region. Temperatures will slowly rise from
the 40s Friday to the 50s Saturday. South winds return Sunday into
Tuesday with temperatures rising above normal into the 60s once
again. Monday and Tuesday moisture moves back in with increasing
rain chances Monday into Tuesday.

TD

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Increasing winds aloft will result in some LLWS this morning
around CHA above the inversion level. As southerly flow increases,
tempo MVFR cigs will be possible at CHA this morning, but cigs
should rise with increasing surface temperatures during the
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions forecast to prevail through
the period with some gusty winds expected this afternoon at all
sites.

JB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  53  68  36  49 /   0  10  80  80  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  64  49  69  37  46 /   0   0  80  90  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  48  68  36  46 /   0   0  80  90  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  43  66  36  44 /   0   0  70 100  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
334 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-162100-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
334 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 /234 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

High winds will be possible across the mountains and foothills
Thursday and Thursday evening. Windy conditions are becoming more
likely area-wide ahead of a cold front late Thursday. In addition,
there is a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday
evening capable of damaging winds and heavy rain rates as the
cold front moves east across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LW/TD