Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Twin Cities, MN

608 
WWUS53 KMPX 112221
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
521 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNC127-129-112230-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-220511T2230Z/
Redwood MN-Renville MN-
521 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL REDWOOD AND NORTHWESTERN RENVILLE COUNTIES...

At 520 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Renville, or 10 miles north of Redwood Falls, moving north at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Olivia, Renville, Sacred Heart, Danube, Delhi and Bechyn. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southwestern
Minnesota.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4458 9500 4456 9523 4480 9539 4483 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 170DEG 43KT 4469 9513 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BPH

670 
WWUS53 KMPX 112227
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
527 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNC127-129-112237-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-220511T2230Z/
Redwood MN-Renville MN-
527 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL REDWOOD AND
NORTHWESTERN RENVILLE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain is still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southwestern
Minnesota. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until midnight CDT
for central and southwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4458 9500 4456 9523 4480 9539 4483 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 170DEG 43KT 4474 9514 

$$

BPH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
402 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

KEY MESSAGES: (optional)

- Conditions still favorable for severe thunderstorms, including
  supercells with large hail and tornadoes, through this evening.

- Heavy rain/flooding still possible through tonight, particularly
  with storms that track over the same locations.

- Additional severe thunderstorms likely Thursday, with all modes of
  severe weather possible.

- Cooler and drier as we trend back to normal temperatures over the
  weekend into early next week.

Tonight through Thursday Night...An active next 24-36 hours is
expected across all of central-southern MN into western WI as Upper
Midwest becomes warm-sectored with steep lapse rates, dewpoints into
the lower 70s, and strong mid-to-upper level jetting in advance of a
cold front. A warm front is making northward progress over southern
MN, helping increase instability over far southern portions of the
coverage area. Even without the instability, multiple strong-to-
severe storms developed earlier today with much lower dewpoints due
to the steep lapse rates producing severe hail with lower cores.
Going through the afternoon hours into this evening, the warm front
will continue to lift north, reaching central MN, allowing the lower
70s dewpoints to continue punching north. Initial discrete cells are
expected to develop into a organized line that will curl NE and E as
they evolve from southwest MN. Bulk shear of 50-60kt within said
instability will certainly be able to contribute to supercell
development. All modes of severe weather will be at play through this
evening, including hail up to 2" in diameter and a few tornadoes.

Even with the loss of daytime heating, PWATs upwards of 1.50" will
contribute to storms producing excessive rainfall as plenty of low
level moisture is advected into the region. As the storm motions
become more parallel to the warm front, this may create training of
storms over the same locations. This scenario may produce localized
flooding during the evening to early morning hours. This is reflected
in the increased QPF in collaboration with WPC earlier today.

Attention then turns to Thursday as another day of severe
thunderstorms looks likely within an even higher instability
environment. Temperatures will surge into the lower 90s with
dewpoints into the upper 60s to around 70. While this does fall short
of Heat Advisory criteria, heat index values into the lower 90s with
WBGT values into the lower 80s will be commonplace on Thursday. After
a lull in the activity Thursday morning, capping will be lost
Thursday afternoon-evening with better wind fields supportive of
storms producing large hails and a few tornadoes, especially early on
in Thursday's event. Going later, more organized segments may well
have potential for damaging winds. The activity will gradually
diminish going into the late Thursday evening hours to the early
morning Friday timeframe.

Friday through Tuesday...The upper trough and 500 mb low will be
moving out of North Dakota into Canada with an arcing cold front
extending from the attendant surface low through the eastern CWA.
There could be lingering showers near the front early, but a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms near the front in the
afternoon/evening, but by that time they may be too far to the east
to affect our Wisconsin areas. The upper trough/low then slows and
meanders eastward keeping us under the influence of the trough into
Monday with small chances for precipitation each afternoon. Ridging
then builds in from the west behind the departing system, but it
looks like a subtle short wave trough brings another chance for
around midweek. Temperatures cool down through the period, with highs
around 80 for MSP on Friday falling to closer to 70 later in the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Tricky forecast timing multiple rounds of convection through over
central-southern MN at initialization. However, the thinking is still
that more organized clusters of storms will arrive from southwestern
MN and push NE over the rest of central-southern MN through western
WI this afternoon and evening. IFR visibility very likely with the
heavy downpours expected, just difficult to determine wind
speeds/directions with the clusters of storms. Ceilings likely to
drop into MVFR range, particularly with storms. Frequent AMDs may be
needed depending on storm coverage.

KMSP...Convection near MSP has exited at initialization but its wake
has left varied wind directions with diminished speeds. Winds will
return to SE and become gusty once the gradient wind returns, then it
becomes a matter of the organized storms pushing across the area.
Best start time is in the 00z-01z timeframe, with heaviest activity
shortly thereafter and lasting through the evening hours.
Thunderstorms may last longer than the currently-advertised 08z but
not expecting precipitation into the Thursday morning push.
Additional showers/thunderstorms possible for Thursday afternoon but
will address that with later TAF issuances.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Mainly VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slight chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15g25kts
becoming NW.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Slight chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CEO/JPC
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1252 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
121500-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1252 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are expected across much of the area
today and tonight. Very large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes are possible. In addition, very heavy rain and localized
flash flooding are possible, especially near and after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another round of widespread strong to severe storms is expected
Thursday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging
winds the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes are also possible,
especially across western Minnesota.

Temperatures could reach the lower 90s Thursday afternoon with
heat index values as high as 95 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed later this
afternoon through tonight and again on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             4 S ORROCK              45.39N 93.74W
05/11/2022  E1.75 INCH       SHERBURNE          MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED AT EAGLE LAKE. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             3 NW ELK RIVER          45.34N 93.61W
05/11/2022  M1.00 INCH       SHERBURNE          MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED AT INTERSECTION OF CO RD 9 AND ELK
            LAKE RD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             5 NE PRINCETON          45.62N 93.52W
05/11/2022  M1.00 INCH       MILLE LACS         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             3 SE ORROCK             45.41N 93.69W
05/11/2022  M1.50 INCH       SHERBURNE          MN   COCORAHS

            GROUND COVERED WITH HAIL.

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             BIG LAKE                45.34N 93.74W
05/11/2022  E2.50 INCH       SHERBURNE          MN   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA FACEBOOK. PHOTO INCLUDED.

&&

MKM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
447 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNZ065-073-074-112215-
Brown MN-Renville MN-Redwood MN-
447 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Redwood,
southwestern Brown and south central Renville Counties through 515 PM
CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springfield, or 19 miles south of Redwood Falls, moving north at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Morgan around 455 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Redwood Falls and
Morton.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 68 and 80.
 U.S. Highway 71 near mile marker 52, and between mile markers 54 and
84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4419 9510 4420 9512 4458 9526 4459 9493
      4420 9487 4417 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 170DEG 43KT 4427 9501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BPH