Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Twin Cities, MN

971 
WWUS53 KMPX 111800
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
100 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNC023-129-173-111809-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-220511T1815Z/
Chippewa MN-Yellow Medicine MN-Renville MN-
100 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA...
EASTERN YELLOW MEDICINE AND NORTHWESTERN RENVILLE COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Yellow Medicine County.

LAT...LON 4498 9561 4488 9527 4455 9551 4456 9561
      4462 9561 4463 9576 4464 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 203DEG 22KT 4475 9556 

$$

NDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

* KEY MESSAGES:

- Conditions favor severe storms/supercells with large hail and
  possible tornadoes this afternoon. Tornado threat maximized near a
  warm front.

- Heavy rain/flash flooding is an increasing threat tonight especially
  if storms end up tracking over the same locations.

- More severe storms expected Thursday, highest threat across western
  Minnesota.

An active two days are in store with an unseasonably warm and humid
airmass over the Central/Northern Plains setting the stage for
several rounds of strong storms as a large trough approaches from the
west. Currently a well-defined surface warm front stretches west-
to-east near I-80 in Iowa with the 850-hPa boundary further north
over southern Minnesota. This elevated boundary is already sparking a
few showers/weak storms near I-90 which is a signal of things to
come later today as the front quickly lifts northward. Currently a
lack of defined upper-level ascent and very dry air above 850 hPa
are keeping these cells limited in coverage and strength, and this
should continue to be the case through early/mid afternoon as upper-
level heights rise and the warm front surges north into central MN.

By late this afternoon storms are expected to rapidly grow across
southwest Minnesota as an upper wave approaches from the west and
feeds an increasing low-level jet toward the northward-advancing warm
front. A surge of warm and humid air from the south will bring
temperatures in the mid/upper 80s into southern MN with dewpoints
rapidly rising into the lower 70s. The resulting strong instability
combined with deep-layer shear of 50-60 kts will be more than
favorable for strong supercells capable of very large hail,
especially those that can develop near and just south of the warm
front where storm-relative helicity will be maximized. This helicity
could also favor tornadoes near the warm front, although this threat
is much more conditional on LCL heights and potential for strong/cold
downdrafts to lessen a prolonged tornado threat...as well as storm
motion which may cause storms to cross north of the warm front and
become more elevated in nature. These factors will need to be
watched closely this afternoon to see if and where a more localized
enhanced tornado threat can develop if these factors can become
overcome.

Storms should increase in coverage this evening as they push into
central/eastern Minnesota and eventually western Wisconsin. Large
hail, wind and isolated tornadoes will remain a threat through this
time, however the main focus through this period will be an
increasing threat for very heavy rain and flash flooding. This will
especially become true toward sunset as storm motion vectors veer to
become more parallel to the warm front, and an increasing LLJ feeds
copious moisture into the boundary. Widespread 1" to 2" rainfall
amounts seem probable from southern MN into areas near/just north of
the Twin Cities and into northwest Wisconsin. If storms end up
training repeatedly over a few locations then isolated amounts of 3"
or 4" would not be out of the question.

Once storms clear out late tonight, attention will turn to
unseasonable heat and humidity on Thursday followed by another round
of strong to severe storms. With 850 hPa temperatures rising to as
high as 22C, full mixing would favor surface temperatures as high as
the lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70 this
would push heat index values in the lower or even mid 90s. This could
approach heat advisory criteria especially for the Twin Cities, but
will need to watch a couple of factors before pulling the trigger on
this, namely 1) potential for cloud cover to cut back on full heating
and 2) lower dewpoints mixing down and keeping heat index values
limited.

Regardless of how high Thursday's temperatures get, the airmass will
once again be very unstable setting the stage for another round of
strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening as the main
upper trough to the west pushes through. Shear profiles will once
again favor supercells with large hail and a few tornadoes,
especially early in the event over western MN and also closer to the
warm front over central/northern MN, but given the extent of the
upper forcing a more linear storm mode appears favorable with
damaging winds a higher threat. How widespread these winds can become
will depend on shear/cold pool interactions which will need to wait
until closer to the event to be better assessed. Higher moisture
could prevent outflow from surging ahead of the storms too quickly,
which would favor a more long-lived wind event as the storms push
toward the Twin Cities and western Wisconsin. Heavy rain will again
be possible, but not as high as Wednesday's threat given a quicker
west-to-east progression of the overall system.

Behind Thursday's strong storm system, a transition to more zonal
upper flow will bring somewhat cooler and much drier air into the
area for Friday and into the weekend. With temperatures in the
lower/mid 70s and dewpoints in the 40s and 50s, we should get to
enjoy quite a nice spring weekend across the area...a seeming rarity
this spring so far.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Strong storms currently south of KMSP should eventually weaken but
may get close to MSP if current trends continue. Otherwise VFR today
with gradually veering winds to SE. Complex of strong storms expected
to develop over southwest and western MN late this afternoon and
spread into MSP area and points north late evening into the early
morning. Damaging wind gusts possible when these storms come through.

KMSP...
Strong storm to the south should begin weakening as it approaches
MSP, but may hold together long enough to impact the terminal. Will
monitor storm trends and add thunder to TAF shortly if current trends
continue. Otherwise more widespread storms expected near or shortly
after sunset and could be strong/severe with high wind.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR/MVFR, chc SHRA/TSRA. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.
Fri...Mainly VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.
Sat...VFR, chc pm MVFR with -SHRA. Wind WNW 10-15g25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...DPH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
430 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
120930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
430 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are expected across much of the area today
and tonight. Very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes
are possible. In addition, very heavy rain and localized flash
flooding are possible, especially near and after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another round of widespread strong to severe storms is expected
Thursday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds
the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes are also possible,
especially across western Minnesota.

Temperatures could reach the lower 90s Thursday afternoon with
heat index values as high as 95 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed today and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
929 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HAIL             PINE ISLAND             44.20N 92.65W
05/11/2022  E2.00 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

CTG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1103 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE WASECA            44.06N 93.49W
05/11/2022  M3.20 INCH       WASECA             MN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MN-WC-12 WASECA 1.6 SSE. 24
            HOUR TOTAL.

&&

MKM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1123 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNZ049-058-059-111700-
Stearns MN-Meeker MN-Wright MN-
1123 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Wright,
central Meeker and south central Stearns Counties through NOON CDT...

At 1123 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Litchfield, or 12 miles northwest of Hutchinson, moving northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Dassel around 1135 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Kimball.

This includes U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 96 and 115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4518 9407 4498 9439 4498 9450 4495 9451
      4506 9469 4540 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 223DEG 29KT 4506 9449

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

NDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OWATONNA                44.09N 93.22W
05/11/2022  M1.70 INCH       STEELE             MN   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN TOWN. COOP
            OBSERVER MEASURED 1.70 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS
            OF 8 AM.

&&

MKM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1145 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNZ041-042-111715-
Douglas MN-Todd MN-
1145 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Douglas
and northwestern Todd Counties through 1215 PM CDT...

At 1145 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carlos, or 9 miles north of Alexandria, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Douglas and northwestern Todd Counties, including the following
locations... Belle River, Miltona and Rose City.

This includes U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 212 and 218.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4635 9503 4593 9518 4595 9544 4611 9543
      4611 9515 4636 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 187DEG 31KT 4602 9530

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1210 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

MNZ049-051-058-059-111800-
Sherburne MN-Stearns MN-Meeker MN-Wright MN-
1210 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Wright,
east central Meeker, western Sherburne and southeastern Stearns
Counties through 100 PM CDT...

At 1210 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Annandale, or 16 miles west of Buffalo, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Annandale around 1220 PM CDT.
  Maple Lake around 1230 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Clearwater,
Monticello, Clear Lake and Becker.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 172 and 197.
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 181 and 204.
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 113 and 119.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4529 9367 4504 9421 4514 9441 4556 9409
      4556 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 225DEG 26KT 4520 9419

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CTG