Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
715 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Two rounds of severe weather possible today. First is expected this
  morning roughly along the MN river from western into southeast MN.
  A second round is possible this afternoon/evening over southern MN
  into western WI.

Storms have developed this morning near the central ND/SD border,
though they are a couple of hours ahead of schedule. These storms
have developed on the nose of a 40 kt LLJ. These storms expected to
travel southeast along the MUCAPE gradient, with the RAP showing the
nose of the LLJ roughly following this CAPE gradient as well. These
storms are expected to be rolling into west central MN possibly as
early as 6 am, then run down the MUCAPE gradient from west central
to southeast MN. CAMS are showing some rather healthy updraft
helicity swaths with this activity, with current expectations that
we will see a risk for large hail (over 2" in diameter) and strong
wind this morning roughly paralleling the MN River from west central
to southeast MN.

The big question for today is do we see a round 2 of thunderstorms
behind the morning wave for this afternoon and evening. This
mornings activity will come in well ahead of the synoptic cold
front, but will likely impact how far north the warm front down
along the MN/IA border this morning can make it. A volatile airmass
is expected to develop south of the warm front, with mlCAPE values
of 4000-5000 j/kg expected. Where convergence along the cold front
can meet up with this sort of environment, storms will likely
develop and quickly become severe, but there's still quite a bit of
uncertainty with where these storms develop. Looking at the mean h85
wind field from the HREF, an enhancement of the LLJ is expected this
afternoon from central IA into southeast MN. Initiation of deep
moist convection would be most likely within the convergence on the
west side of this LLJ, which would put south central MN up into the
southeast Twin Cities metro in line for being near where round 2
develops. Upscale growth into one or more lines of storms is
expected with round 2 of storms, with the increasing wind fields
bringing the significant wind gust threat into play.

The cold front will clear the MPX area this evening, with much drier
air filtering in Saturday night. This will leave behind an
absolutely spectacular weather day on Sunday, with highs expected to
be near 80 with dewpoints in the 50s and a refreshing northwest wind.

High pressure lingers over the Upper Midwest on Monday with cooler
and drier air settling in. Temperatures will be seasonable in the
mid to upper 70s to start the work week with low relative humidity.
The surface high will move east as a low pressure begins to develop
upstream in Canada. Tuesday's high temperatures rebound into the low
to mid 80s ahead of the approaching cold front. This system will
bring us our primary chance of precipitation for Tuesday evening
into Wednesday morning. A cold front is expected to stretch back
from the parent low into the Central Plains Tuesday afternoon. As
the frontal boundary swings through, we'll see thunderstorm
development ahead of the boundary Tuesday evening. Any severe
weather threat will be dependent on frontal timing and the amount of
moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough/front. We'll cool off
behind the front with high temperatures back into the upper 70s on
Wednesday and Thursday. There will be some potential for a few very
isolated pop up showers/storms Thursday afternoon as an impulse
rotates around the upper level low over James Bay/E Canada. One
caveat is that it's not currently represented in the NBM PoPs and I
do not expect it to be for several days. High pressure builds in for
the start of the weekend and should result in pleasant weather and
seasonable temperatures as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 709 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Storms near Aberdeen are expected to race across southern MN today,
likely as a bow echo, with RWF and MKT at greatest risk for seeing
severe storms. Timing in going TAFs for this first round of storms
still looks pretty good, so did not change that much. Bigger question
mark comes with whether or not we'll see a second round of storms
develop late this afternoon along the cold front. Models have been
struggle much more with this, but have prob30s at MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU to
account for this potential second round in the late afternoon and
evening. Current trends for round 2 is that the chances are better
for it south and east of all MPX terminals. VFR conditions are
expected outside of storms, though the lone exception is at EAU,
where much of the guidance is showing a risk for IFR/MVFR stratus
tonight.

KMSP...Storms near Aberdeen are expected to impact MSP between
roughly 1630z and 19z. We'll likely see a bit of a break, with
another potential round of storms developing closer to 00z as the
cold front passes MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Winds NW 10-20 kts.
Mon...VFR. Winds W around 5 kts.
Tue...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind SW at 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...BPH/MPG
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
240845-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
338 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Two rounds of severe weather are expected today.

Round one will be this morning, roughly along the Minnesota river
from west central into southeast Minnesota. Large hail, damaging
wind gusts, and locally heavy downpours will be the primary
hazards with this morning round of storms.

Round two is expected to develop this afternoon from south
central into east central Minnesota and continue east across
southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin into the evening.
Destructive wind gusts, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and
a tornado or two will be possible with this second round of
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this morning and
again this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1027 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW CLARA CITY        44.95N 95.39W
07/23/2022  M60 MPH          CHIPPEWA           MN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MNDOT WIND SENSOR WEST OF CLARA CITY.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W OLIVIA              44.78N 95.03W
07/23/2022  M71 MPH          RENVILLE           MN   AWOS

            KOVL - AIRPORT.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1036 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE OLIVIA            44.78N 94.99W
07/23/2022                   RENVILLE           MN   PUBLIC

            VARIOUS TREE LIMBS DOWN, SOME LARGE IN SIZE.

&&

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 AM     HAIL             5 NNW GIBBON            44.60N 94.55W
07/23/2022  M1.75 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1042 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 AM     HAIL             4 N GIBBON              44.59N 94.54W
07/23/2022  M1.75 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: GOLF BALL (1.75 IN.).

&&

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 AM     HAIL             3 S RENVILLE            44.75N 95.22W
07/23/2022  M1.00 INCH       RENVILLE           MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

TDH