Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Twin Cities, MN

088 
WWUS53 KMPX 231400
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
900 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

MNC023-073-151-231430-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-220723T1430Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Chippewa MN-Swift MN-
900 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT
FOR LAC QUI PARLE...NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA AND WESTERN SWIFT
COUNTIES...

At 859 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Artichoke Lake to 5 miles east of Bellingham to near
Gary, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
  Appleton, Lake Oliver, Milan and Dawson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4526 9645 4525 9629 4522 9627 4518 9610
      4541 9612 4541 9564 4511 9579 4480 9616
      4480 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1359Z 275DEG 40KT 4533 9616 4511 9619 4485 9645 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

PEM

059 
WWUS53 KMPX 231409
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
909 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

MNC023-073-151-231430-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-220723T1430Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Chippewa MN-Swift MN-
909 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT
FOR LAC QUI PARLE...NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA AND WESTERN SWIFT
COUNTIES...

At 909 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Lake Oliver to 6 miles south of Appleton to 8 miles
northeast of Gary, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Dawson, Appleton, Milan, Bellingham, Marietta, Lake Oliver,
Cerro Gordo, Clontarf, Hagen, Danvers and Holloway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4496 9645 4522 9627 4518 9610 4541 9612
      4541 9564 4511 9579 4480 9616 4480 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1409Z 269DEG 40KT 4533 9601 4511 9604 4485 9631 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

PEM

237 
WWUS53 KMPX 231422
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
922 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

MNC023-073-151-231430-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-220723T1430Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Chippewa MN-Swift MN-
922 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN LAC QUI PARLE...NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA AND SOUTHWESTERN
SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 921 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles east of Lake Oliver to near Milan to 6 miles
southwest of Dawson, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Dawson, Appleton, Milan, Cerro Gordo, Hagen, Danvers,
Holloway, Appleton Airport and Madison Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4530 9604 4530 9570 4511 9579 4480 9616
      4480 9636 4518 9611 4518 9610 4520 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 270DEG 40KT 4533 9584 4511 9587 4485 9614 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

PEM

817 
WWUS53 KMPX 231424
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
924 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

MNC023-073-151-231434-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-220723T1430Z/
Lac qui Parle MN-Chippewa MN-Swift MN-
924 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LAC QUI PARLE...
NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA AND SOUTHWESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
930 AM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty 
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms and the storm 
could strengthen again. We will be watching closely.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4530 9604 4530 9570 4511 9579 4480 9616
      4480 9636 4518 9611 4518 9610 4520 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1424Z 269DEG 40KT 4533 9582 4511 9585 4485 9612 

$$

PEM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
715 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Two rounds of severe weather possible today. First is expected this
  morning roughly along the MN river from western into southeast MN.
  A second round is possible this afternoon/evening over southern MN
  into western WI.

Storms have developed this morning near the central ND/SD border,
though they are a couple of hours ahead of schedule. These storms
have developed on the nose of a 40 kt LLJ. These storms expected to
travel southeast along the MUCAPE gradient, with the RAP showing the
nose of the LLJ roughly following this CAPE gradient as well. These
storms are expected to be rolling into west central MN possibly as
early as 6 am, then run down the MUCAPE gradient from west central
to southeast MN. CAMS are showing some rather healthy updraft
helicity swaths with this activity, with current expectations that
we will see a risk for large hail (over 2" in diameter) and strong
wind this morning roughly paralleling the MN River from west central
to southeast MN.

The big question for today is do we see a round 2 of thunderstorms
behind the morning wave for this afternoon and evening. This
mornings activity will come in well ahead of the synoptic cold
front, but will likely impact how far north the warm front down
along the MN/IA border this morning can make it. A volatile airmass
is expected to develop south of the warm front, with mlCAPE values
of 4000-5000 j/kg expected. Where convergence along the cold front
can meet up with this sort of environment, storms will likely
develop and quickly become severe, but there's still quite a bit of
uncertainty with where these storms develop. Looking at the mean h85
wind field from the HREF, an enhancement of the LLJ is expected this
afternoon from central IA into southeast MN. Initiation of deep
moist convection would be most likely within the convergence on the
west side of this LLJ, which would put south central MN up into the
southeast Twin Cities metro in line for being near where round 2
develops. Upscale growth into one or more lines of storms is
expected with round 2 of storms, with the increasing wind fields
bringing the significant wind gust threat into play.

The cold front will clear the MPX area this evening, with much drier
air filtering in Saturday night. This will leave behind an
absolutely spectacular weather day on Sunday, with highs expected to
be near 80 with dewpoints in the 50s and a refreshing northwest wind.

High pressure lingers over the Upper Midwest on Monday with cooler
and drier air settling in. Temperatures will be seasonable in the
mid to upper 70s to start the work week with low relative humidity.
The surface high will move east as a low pressure begins to develop
upstream in Canada. Tuesday's high temperatures rebound into the low
to mid 80s ahead of the approaching cold front. This system will
bring us our primary chance of precipitation for Tuesday evening
into Wednesday morning. A cold front is expected to stretch back
from the parent low into the Central Plains Tuesday afternoon. As
the frontal boundary swings through, we'll see thunderstorm
development ahead of the boundary Tuesday evening. Any severe
weather threat will be dependent on frontal timing and the amount of
moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough/front. We'll cool off
behind the front with high temperatures back into the upper 70s on
Wednesday and Thursday. There will be some potential for a few very
isolated pop up showers/storms Thursday afternoon as an impulse
rotates around the upper level low over James Bay/E Canada. One
caveat is that it's not currently represented in the NBM PoPs and I
do not expect it to be for several days. High pressure builds in for
the start of the weekend and should result in pleasant weather and
seasonable temperatures as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 709 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Storms near Aberdeen are expected to race across southern MN today,
likely as a bow echo, with RWF and MKT at greatest risk for seeing
severe storms. Timing in going TAFs for this first round of storms
still looks pretty good, so did not change that much. Bigger question
mark comes with whether or not we'll see a second round of storms
develop late this afternoon along the cold front. Models have been
struggle much more with this, but have prob30s at MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU to
account for this potential second round in the late afternoon and
evening. Current trends for round 2 is that the chances are better
for it south and east of all MPX terminals. VFR conditions are
expected outside of storms, though the lone exception is at EAU,
where much of the guidance is showing a risk for IFR/MVFR stratus
tonight.

KMSP...Storms near Aberdeen are expected to impact MSP between
roughly 1630z and 19z. We'll likely see a bit of a break, with
another potential round of storms developing closer to 00z as the
cold front passes MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Winds NW 10-20 kts.
Mon...VFR. Winds W around 5 kts.
Tue...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind SW at 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...BPH/MPG
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
240845-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
338 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Two rounds of severe weather are expected today.

Round one will be this morning, roughly along the Minnesota river
from west central into southeast Minnesota. Large hail, damaging
wind gusts, and locally heavy downpours will be the primary
hazards with this morning round of storms.

Round two is expected to develop this afternoon from south
central into east central Minnesota and continue east across
southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin into the evening.
Destructive wind gusts, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and
a tornado or two will be possible with this second round of
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this morning and
again this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
802 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

MNZ054-056-064-065-231345-
Chippewa MN-Yellow Medicine MN-Renville MN-Lac Qui Parle MN-
802 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Lac qui Parle,
Chippewa, central Yellow Medicine and northwestern Renville Counties
through 845 AM CDT...

At 801 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dawson, or 22 miles west of Montevideo, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Dawson around 810 AM CDT.
  Boyd around 815 AM CDT.
  Montevideo and Watson around 820 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Granite Falls,
Maynard, Clara City and Raymond.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 0 and 64.
 U.S. Highway 75 between mile markers 95 and 115.
 U.S. Highway 59 between mile markers 94 and 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for
central and west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4507 9645 4513 9525 4473 9524 4472 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 1301Z 269DEG 57KT 4490 9617

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PEM