Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1247 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Mid to upper level troughing
persists across the region today before shifting slightly east
going into Monday. Once again we will see afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms popping off along the seabreeze boundary
as it moves inland this afternoon and evening, likely lingering
into the late evening hours. Shear remains modest in the 20 to
25kt range, perhaps locally enhanced to nearer 30kts in
association with the seabreeze boundary. CAPE will be in the 2,000
to 2,500j/kg range with DCAPE values of 800 to 1,100j/kg. Any
showers and storms that develop today once again will have the
chance to become strong to severe sporting large hail and damaging
wind gusts in any of the more robust convection. This is
particularly true in any cases where storm mergers are involved.
Temperatures are topping out in the upper 80's to lower 90's today
with temperatures falling into the middle to upper 60's tonight.

Heading into Monday our trough shifts east some and transient
shortwave ridging moves overhead in the mid to upper levels. This
should help induce some subsidence over the area and help keep
convective coverage more limited across the area during the
afternoon hours. Once again though can't rule out an isolated
shower or thunderstorm owing to daytime heating or the seabreeze
boundary. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 90's for
most locations.

As has been the case the past couple days, monitoring how
convection evolves upstream across MO/AR this afternoon for a
complex of thunderstorms that develops and moves quickly
southeast. This should begin to fizzle out as it moves across
northern MS into AL after sunset given loss of daytime heating
and subsequently SBCAPE. Will continue to watch as forecast
guidance often has a difficult time in these regimes diagnosing
the evolution of these convective complexes even with a 12 to 24
hour lead time.

A low risk of rip currents remains in place through Monday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions prevail today into tonight outside
of showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms may reduce
ceilings and visibility at times. Best chance for this would be in
the vicinity of the I-10 corridor. A seabreeze boundary lifts
north this afternoon and will shift winds from light and variable
to southerly around 10 to 15kts, mainly across coastal counties of
AL/FL. The seabreeze should begin moving inland between 18 to 19z.
MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
132 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

FLZ205-206-151915-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
132 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Okaloosa
County through 215 PM CDT...

At 132 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles northwest of
Eglin Air Force Base to 7 miles north of Santa Rosa Beach. Movement
was southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso, Lake Lorraine and Shalimar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3039 8660 3040 8660 3040 8656 3043 8656
      3043 8659 3046 8660 3044 8660 3042 8659
      3059 8672 3070 8639 3045 8639 3045 8642
      3040 8642 3040 8639 3038 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 065DEG 8KT 3064 8635 3049 8626

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CGAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
312 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ALZ264-266-152100-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
312 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Baldwin
County through 400 PM CDT...

At 312 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Elberta, or 5 miles east of Foley, moving
northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Foley, Orange Beach and Elberta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 8768 3028 8768 3028 8766 3029 8768
      3054 8769 3051 8745 3031 8754 3032 8755
      3031 8758 3033 8758 3035 8757 3033 8759
      3036 8760 3034 8761 3032 8759 3030 8762
      3030 8754 3029 8754 3028 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 210DEG 5KT 3038 8759

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CGAL