Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
351 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...A complex scenario
continues to unfold for convective development across the area
through the afternoon and evening hours. Currently, The gravity
wave has been becomes less defined across the area and is likely
not strong enough to enhance development due to the very dry air
aloft. A cold front is moving into northern Mississippi with much
cooler and drier air behind it. The airmass across the central
Gulf coast continues to warm and become very unstable. MLCAPE
values are currently around 3000 J/Kg around the area with
temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to
around 70. However, as opposed to yesterday, deep layer shear
values are much lower today. The question will be just how many
storms are able to develop due to the lack of forcing until the
frontal boundary arrives this evening and the very dry mid and
upper level airmass over the region. If storms are able to develop
and maintain sustained deep updrafts, steep mid- level lapse
rates will support large hail and the dry mid levels will support
gusty winds. The tornado threat is low due to the lack of deep
layer direction shear.

We will continue to monitor thunderstorm development through the
afternoon and evening. The cold front will move through the area
this evening into early Thursday morning with additional development
along and ahead of the boundary. However, weak mid level forcing and
dry air in the mid and upper levels will likely hinder development.
A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area in the wake of
the front. Highs today will be in the upper 70s and low 80s with
highs on Thursday in the upper 60s and low 70s. Lows tonight will be
in the upper 40s and low 50s inland to upper 50s along the coast. /13
&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A closed upper
low centered over the Midwest wobbles east, with several lobes of
energy swinging around the south side of the system through the
Short Term. These lobes help to re-enforce northerly flow over the
Southeast, bringing temperatures well below seasonal norms and a dry
airmass to the region through the weekend. The first passes over the
Southeast Friday into Friday night with the next being Saturday.
Temperatures drop into the low to mid 40s across much of the
forecast area Thursday night, falling into the upper 30s to low 40s
Friday and Saturday nights and flirting with record lows for the
dates in the process. High temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70
expected Friday and Saturday.

With the drier air, gusty winds, and drier fuels expected Friday, a
Red Flag Watch has been issued for the Florida Panhandle for Friday.
These conditions are expected again Saturday. Burning is discouraged
into and through the weekend.
/16

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...An upper ridge moves
over and east of the Mississippi River Sunday into Sunday night
as more upper level shortwave begins to move southeast over the
western Conus. Surface high pressure that has moved over the
Southeast continues to shift east, with southerly flow returning
to the region by Monday. Good moisture return sets up over the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley into Monday.
The axis of high moisture values west over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley tilts a bit east into mid week, and with that best
rain chances for the forecast area Tuesday on or northwest of I-65
into mid week. With the passing upper ridge bringing increased
subsidence and increasing moisture values, temperatures rise back
to above seasonal norms Monday on. /16 &&

.MARINE...Moderate to strong south to southwesterly flow will continue
through this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A moderate
to strong northwest flow follows in the wake of the front through
Thursday night. A moderate to strong northwest flow continues
through the early part of the weekend. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      54  73  43  67  39  69  44  76 /  50   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   58  73  48  70  45  71  47  75 /  50   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      60  72  52  69  48  69  52  72 /  50   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   53  72  41  67  37  67  39  77 /  80   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  48  68  40  64  36  67  39  77 /  50   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      49  70  42  65  37  65  39  75 /  80   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   56  74  41  70  38  70  37  77 /  60   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Friday
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
231 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

ALZ054-062015-
Wilcox AL-
231 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Wilcox
County through 315 PM CDT...

At 230 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 6 miles west of Dannelly Reservoir, or 10 miles
north of Camden, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 8741 3224 8739 3220 8736 3220 8733
      3214 8728 3214 8725 3212 8726 3208 8719
      3205 8718 3205 8692 3204 8692 3196 8763
      3213 8755 3213 8752 3219 8752 3224 8750
      3226 8744
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 252DEG 17KT 3215 8732

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
253 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

ALZ054-062045-
Wilcox AL-
253 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Wilcox
County through 345 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 4 miles southwest of Yellow Bluff, or 12 miles
east of Thomasville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Camden, Pine Hill and Yellow Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 8697 3189 8699 3185 8761 3198 8763
      3205 8712 3205 8703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 256DEG 31KT 3192 8752

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
713 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

ALZ051-070100-
Choctaw AL-
713 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Choctaw
County through 800 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Kinterbish, or 7 miles south of Cuba, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lisman and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3228 8794 3230 8794
      3230 8800 3228 8801 3228 8802 3226 8801
      3218 8801 3215 8802 3214 8804 3212 8804
      3212 8845 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 267DEG 31KT 3233 8835

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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