Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
935 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...This will be strictly and update on the
ongoing severe weather event. We are currently in a lull across
our area as we appear to be sandwiched in-between two waves. The
first wave is currently lifting out over northern Alabama and was
the cause for the earlier tornado warnings across interior
southwestern Alabama and far interior southeastern Mississippi. As
this jet streak lifted out, we have noticed subtle height rises
and a weakening trend across most of the area. However, the event
is far from over as a second wave is currently rounding the base
of the main trough. This was noted by a 120 knot subtropical jet
moving out of southern Texas into the western Gulf of Mexico. This
jet will begin to nose into the back of the line of storms
currently situated across western Perry and Stone counties. As
this jet noses in, expect storms to uptick once again in intensity
and coverage as low level mass fields respond to the impulse. Along
with this, the current ripe warm sector mainly situated west of
I-65 will spread east northeastward after midnight expanding the
area of potential severe weather into the northwest Florida
Panhandle and south central Alabama. This is also supported by
recent high-res model guidance and the experimental Warn On
Forecast (WOFS) guidance. Severe threat will be maximized mainly
along the coast with areas west of I-65 likely seeing the best
threat now through midnight and then areas east of I-65 seeing the
best threat midnight through 4 am onward.

The environment within this warm sector is about as ripe as you
can get for severe weather. Current VAD wind profiles from KMOB
and KEVX show some a shear rich environment with 0-1 km SRH of 300
to 400 and bulk effective shear in the 40 to 50 knot range which
will support supercells capable of damaging winds and tornadoes (a
few could be strong). The main limiting factor tonight would be
instability. With the great heat lamp in the sky now turned off
for the night we are going to purely reliant on moisture advection
and lift allowing for the steepening of the mid-level lapse rates
to generate instability. Based off the 00Z LIX sounding and rap
analysis, this appears to not be an issue and as I write this
storms have begun to perk back up over Mobile Bay. Instability
might be a little bit of an issue further north; however, as the
aforementioned surface fluxes increase the instability should
improve northward. To add on with the highly sheared environment,
streamwise storm relative helicity begin ingested into any
supercells would help overcome any weak low level instability
issues. We have given a break to catch our breaths but we urge not
to let your guard down overnight tonight especially if you have
not seen any severe weather yet. Be sure to have multiple ways to
receive warnings that will wake you up overnight. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until midnight CDT Wednesday night for ALZ265-
     266.

FL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until midnight CDT Wednesday night for FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ630>636.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
635 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LISMAN                  32.17N 88.28W
03/22/2022                   CHOCTAW            AL   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND TREES IN
            THE LISMAN AREA. PHOTOS WERE ALSO RELAYED
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF DAMAGE TO A MANUFACTURED
            HOME. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
720 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOXEY                   31.91N 88.31W
03/22/2022                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL HOMES WERE REPORTED TO HAVE ROOF
            DAMAGE WITH LOTS OF TREES DOWN FROM LIKELY
            TORNADO IN THE TOXEY, AL AND RED SPRINGS
            ROAD AREA.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
831 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

ALZ051-230200-
Choctaw AL-
831 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Choctaw County
through 900 PM CDT...

At 830 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorms extending from near Toxey to 4 miles north of
Pennington, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman, Pennington, Gilbertown and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3230 8794 3230 8798
      3228 8802 3218 8801 3214 8804 3209 8804
      3206 8807 3205 8812 3201 8812 3198 8806
      3196 8807 3195 8812 3194 8810 3182 8822
      3176 8847 3196 8846 3231 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 215DEG 55KT 3228 8806

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
953 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     WATER SPOUT      4 NE FORT MORGAN        30.27N 87.97W
03/22/2022                   GMZ631             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATERSPOUT REPORTED OVER SOUTHERN MOBILE
            BAY.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1006 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-076-230345-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
1006 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Choctaw, northwestern Washington, northwestern Clarke, southeastern
Wayne and northeastern Greene Counties through 1045 PM CDT...

At 1006 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near State Line, or 16 miles west of Chatom,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Millry, State Line, Buckatunna, Silas, Coffeeville, Gilbertown and
Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3127 8849 3141 8873 3201 8824 3182 8791
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 219DEG 44KT 3144 8853

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM