Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
418 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

By 6 am/12Z, a line of active convection is anticipated to be
along the I-65 corridor which progresses fairly quickly eastward,
exiting the area by about 9 am/15Z with a cold front following
shortly behind. Severe storm development is possible with the line
of storms and also with leading discrete convection. Dry
conditions follow in the wake of the front through Thursday as
much drier air flows into the area and a large surface ridge
builds into the eastern states. Highs today will occur early this
morning and range from the mid to upper 60s well inland to the
lower 70s closer to the coast, then temperatures drop off through
the day in the wake of the cold front. Lows tonight range from the
lower to mid 30s well inland to around 40 at the immediate coast.
Highs on Thursday range from the mid to upper 50s well inland to
the lower 60s closer to the coast. A high risk of rip currents is
in effect through this evening, then a low risk follows for
Thursday. /29

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

A fairly zonal flow prevails over the area as a broad upper ridge
will be in place over the Gulf, and a vigorous upper trof
advances from the western states to across the northern/central
Plains. A deep surface low develops in response to the upper trof
and brings a cold front across the Plains to near the lower/mid
Mississippi River valley by late Friday night. A large surface
ridge over the eastern states meanwhile moves off to the east,
though leaves a surface ridge in place over the extreme
southeastern states. Dry deep layer air over the area Thursday
night stages a comeback during the period, with precipitable water
values increasing to around 1.5 inches generally along and west
of I-65 with values down to 1.3 inches further to the east.
Despite the fairly significant improvement in deep layer moisture,
the approaching front looks to still be sufficiently to the west
to stay with a dry forecast through the period. Lows Thursday
night range from 35 to 40 well inland to the upper 40s at the
immediate coast. Highs on Friday range from the mid 60s well
inland to around 70 near the coast. Lows Friday night typically
range from the 50s inland to around 60 closer to the coast and
over extreme southeast Mississippi. A low risk of rip currents
Thursday night will be followed by a moderate risk for Friday and
Friday night. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

A cold front located near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley
at the beginning of the period moves slowly southward through much
of the area through Saturday night. The frontal boundary generally
meanders over the area on Sunday before lifting off to the north
on Monday.  Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for much
of the area for Saturday and Saturday night, though have kept dry
conditions near the coast for now.  Slight chance pops continue
well inland on Sunday, then dry conditions prevailing on Monday.
Slight chance to chance pops return to nearly the entire area on
Tuesday as another cold front approaches from the west. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

A cold front approaching from the north moves through the marine
area today with a moderate to strong northerly flow following in
the wake of the front. A small craft advisory is in effect for
much of the marine area beginning at noon today through Thursday
morning.  A moderate to strong easterly flow develops Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night which gradually evolves into a light
to moderate southeasterly flow by Saturday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  38  62  45  71  60  77  61 /  70   0   0   0   0   0  20  20
Pensacola   76  42  64  49  71  62  77  63 / 100   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Destin      78  46  65  53  71  63  77  65 / 100   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Evergreen   70  33  61  37  68  52  75  57 /  80   0   0   0   0   0  20  20
Waynesboro  66  33  56  36  66  55  74  56 /  20   0   0   0   0  10  30  30
Camden      68  33  56  37  65  52  73  54 /  40   0   0   0   0   0  30  30
Crestview   74  38  61  42  69  54  76  59 / 100   0   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>055-261-262.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 AM CST Thursday for
     GMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CST Thursday for
     GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon CST Thursday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 AM CST WED NOV 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 AM     TORNADO          FRUITDALE               31.34N 88.41W
11/30/2022                   WASHINGTON         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DEBRIS SIGNATURE NOTED ON RADAR. EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT PRELIMINARILY REPORTS MAJOR
            DAMAGE IN THE FRUITDALE COMMUNITY. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

21/CLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CST WED NOV 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 AM     TORNADO          7 SSW STATE LINE        31.34N 88.51W
11/30/2022                   GREENE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO TREES ALONG HIGHWAY 57 TO THE
            SOUTH OF JOHNSON CREEK BAPTIST CHURCH.

&&

JLH